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US Natgas Prices Rise for 2nd Day:  US natural gas futures climbed over 2.5% to $3.45/MMBtu on Tuesday, nearing an 11-week high of $3.476 reached on October 1, as daily output declined. Production in the Lower 48 states averaged 106.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record 108.0 bcfd in August. Daily output was expected to hit a four-month low of 104.4 bcfd. Earlier record production allowed storage levels to build 5% above the seasonal norm. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast mostly warmer-than-usual weather through at least October 22, limiting heating demand. Meanwhile, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export plants averaged 16.1 bcfd in early October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and above the April record. However, feedgas flows slipped to a two-week low of 15.5 bcfd on Tuesday due to reduced intake at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana.

Baltic Dry Index Picks Up for 2nd Session: The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, rose 15 points to 1,947 on Tuesday. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes of iron ore and coal, gained 57 points to 2,885. The panamax index, for vessels carrying 60,000–70,000 tons of coal or grain, snapped a seven-day losing streak, rising 11 points to 1,665. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index fell 18 points to 1,425, marking its lowest level since August 22.

Gold at Record High on Political Turmoil, Fed Cut Bets: Spot gold climbed above $3,970 an ounce on Tuesday, while futures breached the $4,000 mark for the first time, as investors sought safety amid escalating political uncertainty in France, the ongoing US government shutdown, and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The metal’s rally accelerated after the partial suspension of US federal operations — now in its second week — left investors without key economic data to assess the health of the economy and guide monetary policy expectations. Markets are currently pricing in two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts before year-end. In France, outgoing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu began two days of last-ditch negotiations following his surprise resignation, in an effort to break the country’s political deadlock. Gold has surged roughly 50% so far this year, putting it on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979.

TSX Struggles for Direction: The S&P/TSX Composite hovered above the flatline at the 30,530 mark for the first time on Tuesday, struggling to extend a seven-session winning streak led by tech giants while financials and energy producers also supported the index. Shopify added more than 2%, extending its record-setting rally that began on October 3rd after OpenAI introduced Instant Checkout and ranking among the day’s top performers. Brookfield rose roughly 0.7% and Canadian Natural Resources gained over 0.5% as pockets of strength in financials and energy helped lift the market. Those gains were partly offset by miner weakness, with Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals and Barrick each down between 0.5% and 0.9%. On the diplomatic front Canadian officials are scheduled to meet US counterparts to discuss economic and trade issues, a development investors are watching for its potential cross-border implications.

S&P and Nasdaq Hit New Highs: Stocks in the US were higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.3% to hit fresh record levels while the Dow Jones added nearly 100 points. Traders await fresh market catalysts including comments from several Fed officials due today, while the political stalemate in Washington continued. Funding proposals from both Democrats and Republicans failed to pass for a fifth time on Monday, extending the federal government shutdown into its seventh consecutive day. Financials were the top performing sector while consumer discretionary lagged. Visa (1.1%) and Netflix (1.9%) booked strong gains, AMD was up 6.5% extending a 23.7% surge the day before, and IBM jumped 3% after announcing a partnership with Anthropic. On the other hand, Tesla lost 1.4% ahead of an event where it is expected to unveil a more affordable version of Model Y SUV.

Mexico Car Exports Decline in September: Mexico’s car exports fell 6.1% year-on-year to 314,656 units in September 2025, breaking a three-month growth streak but remaining at the highest level since June. Eight of twelve automakers reported declines, led by Mazda (-46.4% to 3,930), BMW (-34.6% to 5,430), Volkswagen (-21.7% to 22,648), and Honda (-21.4% to 16,436). Ford (-3.1%), Audi (-3.0%), KIA (-1.6%), and General Motors (-1.1%) also posted modest drops. In contrast, Stellantis (+34.1% to 39,957), Mercedes-Benz (+11.7% to 6,452), Toyota (+9.2% to 27,250), and Nissan (+5.2% to 46,972) registered export gains. Year-to-date, auto exports fell around 1% to 2.57 million units. The US was the main destination, accounting for 78.8% of of Mexico's vehicle shipments.

Italy 10-Year BTP Yield Near One-Week High: The yield on Italy’s 10-year BTP hovered around 3.59%, nearing a one-week high, as political uncertainty in France reverberated across European bond markets. French President Emmanuel Macron tasked outgoing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu with leading final negotiations with parliamentary parties to resolve the political stalemate following his unexpected resignation on Monday. Domestically, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s renewed push for constitutional reform to allow direct elections of the prime minister has added to investor concerns about Italy’s fiscal outlook and banking sector stability. Meanwhile, Italy has formally appealed to the United States to reconsider its proposed 107% tariff on pasta imports, warning that the measure could significantly impact one of the country’s key export industries.

US Used Car Prices Down in September: The US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined 0.2% month-over-month in September 2025, following a flat reading in August and marking the third consecutive month of subdued price movements. Prices declined for the luxury segment (-0.3%), pickups (-0.5%), SUVs (-0.9%) and compact cars (-2%) but edged up 0.2% for mid-sized sedans. Meanwhile, EV values rose by 0.8% month-over-month, while non-EVs declined by 1%. Year-on-year, prices of used cars increased 2%, after a 1.7% gain in August. The luxury segment continued to show the strongest annual gains (2.3%), supported by trends in the EV market. SUV prices increased 0.7%, while truck values edged down 0.3%. Mid-size sedans slipped 0.6%, and compact cars fell 6.5%. “As we close the books on Q3, we’ve continued to see wholesale values remain elevated against normal depreciation trends, even with declines in September and right as tax incentives on EVs come to an end,” said Jeremy Robb, deputy chief economist for Cox Automotive.

Chile Trade Surplus Narrows as Imports Surge: Chile’s trade surplus narrowed to $0.93 billion in September 2025 from $1.77 billion a year earlier, as imports jumped 22.7% to $7.49 billion. Purchases of consumer goods rose 13.3%, driven by a 287.2% surge in gasoline imports, while intermediate goods climbed 24.5% amid higher imports of machinery parts (+92.7%). Capital goods imports advanced 31.2%, led by electric motors, generators, and transformers (+292.6%). Exports increased 8.1% to $8.42 billion, supported by higher shipments of molybdenum (+522.2%), gold (+251.8%), and silver (+145.5%), which offset a 2% drop in copper exports. Agricultural, forestry, and fishing exports jumped 42.5%, and industrial goods rose 10%. Month-on-month, the trade surplus widened by 2.9%.

Canada Exports See First Decline Since April: Canada’s exports fell 3.0% month-on-month to C$60.6 billion in August 2025, marking the first decline since April. Eight of the 11 product categories posted declines. Metal and non-metallic mineral products led the drop, sliding 7.6% on lower unwrought gold shipments (-11.8%) to the United States. Industrial machinery, equipment and parts fell 9.5%, weighed down by weaker exports of general-purpose machinery (-11.6%) to the US and commercial and service industry machinery (-26.1%) to France, the US, and Poland. Forestry products and building and packaging materials declined 10.1%, largely due to a sharp fall in lumber and sawmill products (-25.4%) following higher US anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

Canada Trade Deficit Widens More than Expected: Canada's trade deficit widened to C$6.3 billion in August of 2025 from the downwardly C$3.8 billion in the previous month and firmly above market expectations of C$5.6 billion to mark the second-widest trade deficit on record. Exports fell by 3% from the previous month to $60.6 billion, the first drop since April to extend the period of volatility since the threat and imposition of tariffs by the US. Exports fell by 7.6% for metal and non-metallic minerals amid an 11.8% plunge in gold, while those of lumber and sawmill sank 25.4%. Tariffs by the US drove exports of US goods to slump by 3.4%. In turn, imports rose by 0.9% to C$66.9 billion amid an over 500% surge in purchases of gold, silver, and platinum group metals, making up for declines earlier in the year due to tariff uncertainty. These were partly offset by a 12.8% drop in energy imports, driving imports from the US to fall by 1.4% and Canada's surplus with the US to drop from C$7.4 billion in July to C$6.4 billion.

Gold Pushes Canadian Imports Higher: Imports from Canada rose 0.9% mom to CAD 66.91 billion in August 2025, following a 1.3% decrease in July, led by a 24.2% jump in imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products, mostly unwrought gold from South Africa and Switzerland, following declines from May to July. In the context of the uncertainty related to recent tariffs imposed by the US, imports of gold continue to show great volatility in 2025. Excluding this product section, imports were down 1%. Higher prices also contributed to the monthly increase in imports; in volume terms, total imports were down 0.3%. Imports of consumer goods increased 2.3%, partly because of higher prices, and led by pharmaceutical products (+24.6%) from Switzerland and Belgium. In contrast, there was a 12.8% decline in purchases of energy, mostly crude oil from the US. Total imports from the US fell 1.4% while those to other countries increased 4.2% to a record value.

Uranium Holds Bullish Momentum: Uranium futures in the US were above $81 per pound, inching marginally lower from the near-one-year-high of $83.5 touched September 25th as markets weighed on whether recent interest from physical funds coincided with the demand outlook for nuclear fuel. Sprott continued to purchase yellowcake to raise its third quarter purchases to 2.3 million pounds, while UK's Yellow Cake raised $125 million for uranium purchases under its agreement with Kazatomprom, the world's top producer. Purchases by physical holding funds commonly trigger rallies in benchmark prices due to the thinness of uranium markets. In the meantime, the focus on energy security and de-carbonization goals drove the World Nuclear Association to forecast that uranium demand for nuclear power is due to rise by 28% by 2030. On the supply front, Canada's Cameco cut its annual production guidance due to expansion delays in its McArthur mine in Saskatchewan, forecasting a 19% drop in mined output from the key source.

Zinc Rises to 9-Month High: Zinc futures in the UK were above $3,015 per tonne mark for the first time this year, erasing its sharp losses year-to-date amid compounding threats to supply. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group noted that mined zinc production rose 6.3% annually in the first half of 2025, but bottlenecks in refiners drove output of refined metal to drop over 2%. That was consistent with output curbs among smelters in Kazakhstan. Smelter output was also due to drop in Japan with the closure of the key Toho Zinc Annaka plant, while output for Mitsui Mining expects a 6.6% annual decline in refined zinc output during the second half the financial year. Likewise, treatment charges for zinc rose to $87.5 per ton after being negative in the end of last year, according to surveys from the Shanghai Metals Market. Consequently, open stocks of high-grade zinc at the London Metals Exchange plummeted to 30,000 tonnes, compared to 171,500 at the start of the year.

US Futures Waver: US futures pared early losses to trade near the flatline on Tuesday, following record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the previous session, as traders awaited fresh market catalysts amid a continued political stalemate in Washington. Funding proposals from both Democrats and Republicans failed to pass for a fifth time on Monday, extending the federal government shutdown into its seventh consecutive day. Megacaps were mixed in premarket trading, with Nvidia (0.4%), Microsoft (0.1%), Amazon (0.2%), Meta (0.3%), and Alphabet booking gains and Broadcom trading little changed while Apple (-0.4%) and Alphabet (-0.4%) were in the red. Tesla also declined 0.7% ahead of an event where it is expected to unveil a more affordable version of Model Y SUV. Meanwhile, AMD gained about 3.7% extending a 23.7% surge the day before and IBM jumped 4% after announcing a partnership with Anthropic. Trilogy Metals jumped more than 205% after the White House said it would take a 10% stake in the company.

German 10-Year Bund Yields Rise Amid Political Uncertainty: The yield on Germany’s 10-year Bund climbed above 2.73%, reaching its highest level since September 26, as investors kept a close eye on political developments in France and the United States. Outgoing French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has embarked on two days of last-ditch negotiations following his unexpected resignation, aiming to resolve the country’s political crisis. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown showed no signs of easing, raising concerns that delays in key data releases could complicate Federal Reserve policy decisions. Yields were further supported by HSBC’s revised forecasts, which anticipate limited scope for additional European Central Bank rate cuts. Investor sentiment also reflected Germany’s announcement of increased bond issuance for the final quarter of the year, aimed at funding higher infrastructure and defense spending.

Uranium Holds Bullish Momentum: Uranium futures in the US were above $81 per pound, inching marginally lower from the near-one-year-high of $83.5 touched September 25th as markets weighed on whether recent interest from physical funds coincided with the demand outlook for nuclear fuel. Sprott continued to purchase yellowcake to raise its third quarter purchases to 2.3 million pounds, while UK's Yellow Cake raised $125 million for uranium purchases under its agreement with Kazatomprom, the world's top producer. Purchases by physical holding funds commonly trigger rallies in benchmark prices due to the thinness of uranium markets. In the meantime, the focus on energy security and de-carbonization goals drove the World Nuclear Association to forecast that uranium demand for nuclear power is due to rise by 28% by 2030. On the supply front, Canada's Cameco cut its annual production guidance due to expansion delays in its McArthur mine in Saskatchewan, forecasting a 19% drop in mined output from the key source.

Dollar Extends Gains: The dollar index rose for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, climbing to 98.4, its highest level in about two weeks. The greenback remained supported by weakness in the euro and yen, while traders awaited fresh market catalysts amid a light economic calendar and an ongoing government shutdown in Washington, which has delayed the release of key economic data. The shutdown entered its seventh day after both Democratic and Republican funding proposals failed in the Senate for a fifth time on Monday. Attention now turns to the FOMC minutes and remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, for further clues on monetary policy. Markets are currently pricing in a 92% probability of another 25 basis-point rate cut this month and nearly an 80% chance of a similar move in December.

US Logistics Growth Lowest in 6 Months: The Logistics Manager’s Index in the US fell to 57.4 in September 2025, its lowest level in six months, down from 59.3 in August. The decline signaled a moderation in logistics sector expansion, driven by slower growth across most components and reflecting broader uncertainty in the economy. Transportation utilization dropped sharply (-4.7 to 50), indicating stagnation and the weakest September reading on record, a notable development given the typically busy freight season. A slight negative freight inversion that began in August also persisted, with transportation prices (-2 to 54.2) slipping just below transportation capacity (-2.2 to 55.1). Meanwhile, inventory levels expanded at a slower pace (-3.1 to 55.2), though inventory costs remained elevated (-3.7 to 75.5). On the other hand, both warehousing capacity (+1 to 51.6) and warehousing utilization (+3.2 to 65.3) accelerated, while warehousing prices recorded the steepest decline among all metrics, falling 6.3 points to 66.

Oil Drops After Two-Day Gain: WTI crude oil futures fell to $61.3 per barrel on Tuesday after a two-day advance, as investors weighed a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output increase against persistent oversupply concerns and weak demand prospects. The producer group agreed on Sunday to raise production by 137,000 bpd, the same pace as in October and well below earlier speculation of a more aggressive hike. The decision comes at a time of rising Venezuelan exports, the resumption of Kurdish crude flows through Turkey, and the presence of unsold Middle Eastern barrels for November loading, all of which are adding to global supply. Limiting losses, however, were supply risks from Russia after reports revealed that Ukraine's drone attack on Russia's Kirishi oil refinery over the weekend halted its most productive distillation unit. Its recovery could take about a month, temporarily tightening regional supply.

French 10-Year OAT Near 14-Year High Amid Political Deadlock: The yield on the French 10-year OAT hovered around 3.59%, near the 14-year high it reached at the end of September, amid ongoing political paralysis. The shortest-serving PM in France’s Fifth Republic, Sébastien Lecornu, abruptly resigned, and President Macron tasked him with conducting two days of “final negotiations” with various parties to find a way forward. President Emmanuel Macron may attempt to form a new cabinet for parliamentary approval, but he is likely to face strong pressure to dissolve the National Assembly and call fresh legislative elections. Meanwhile, rating agencies have issued fresh warnings on France’s sovereign credit. Fitch warned that political uncertainty limits the scope for meaningful fiscal consolidation, and that failure to implement such measures—or a persistent rise in financing costs—could put downward pressure on the country’s credit rating, while S&P Global highlighted that passing a budget remains the government’s most pressing challenge.

Agricultural Commodities Updates: Rice Drops by 0.68%: Today's Agricultural commodities market is characterized by modest daily movements, with Rice standing out as the frontrunner with a -0.68% decrease.

Metals Commodities Updates: Silver Drops by 1.31%: Top commodity losers are Silver (-1.31%), Platinum (-1.06%) and Gold (-0.46%).

Euro at Two-Week Low Amid French Political Turmoil: The euro slipped toward $1.167, its weakest level since September 25, weighed down by renewed political uncertainty in France and a lack of fresh developments from the United States, where the government shutdown continues. In France, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu tendered his resignation on Monday, though President Emmanuel Macron has asked him to continue negotiations to break the political deadlock by Wednesday evening. Betting markets now assign nearly a 60% probability that early elections will be called this month, though it remains unclear whether such a move would resolve the stalemate. On the data front, German factory orders fell 0.8% in August, missing forecasts for a 1.4% gain and marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Meanwhile, France’s trade deficit narrowed less than expected, as steady exports were offset by a sharper pullback in imports.

Energy Commodities Updates: Natural gas Gains by 1.09%: Top commodity gainers are Natural gas (1.09%), Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF (1.05%), Natural Gas UK GBP (0.89%) and Brent Crude Oil (0.04%). Biggest losers are Crude Oil WTI (-0.08%).

DAX Steady Below Record High as Investors Eye Political Uncertainty: Frankfurt’s DAX 40 was little changed around the 24,400 mark on Tuesday, holding just below July’s record high of 24,639, as investors awaited key political developments on both sides of the Atlantic. In France, political tensions persisted following the unexpected resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu. President Emmanuel Macron has asked Lecornu to continue negotiations in an effort to break the current impasse by Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, in the US, the ongoing government shutdown remained in focus, with President Trump signaling a willingness to reach a compromise on healthcare subsidy funding demanded by Democrats. Among individual stocks, SAP and index newcomer Scout24 were among the best performers on the DAX, each gaining more than 1%. In contrast, shares of Bayer fell 4.2%, extending their recent correction. On the economic front, German factory orders fell 0.8% in August, defying expectations of a 1.4% increase and marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

Paris CAC 40 Dips as Political Uncertainty Persists: The Paris CAC 40 fell 0.4% to around 7,930, following a 1.4% drop in the previous session, as political uncertainty continues to loom over Europe’s second-largest economy. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu abruptly resigned after just 27 days in office, becoming the shortest-serving prime minister in the history of the Fifth Republic. Despite his resignation, President Emmanuel Macron has tasked him with conducting two days of “final negotiations” today to find a solution to the political deadlock and restore “stability” to the country. Among individual shares, the banking sector dragged the market lower, with Societe Generale down 0.8%, Credit Agricole 0.6%, and BNP Paribas 0.9%. Elsewhere, chip stock STMicroelectronics declined 1.2%, even after news of a multi-billion-dollar chip supply agreement between AMD and OpenAI. On the other hand, LVMH shares rose 1.7% and Kering advanced 2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on both companies to “overweight” from “equal weight".

FTSE 100 Little Changed on Tuesday: The FTSE 100 was flat on Tuesday after a slight 0.13% decline in the previous session. B&M led losses, plunging over 13% after its new CEO, Tjeerd Jegen, admitted that “weak operational execution” had hurt first-half results and full-year earnings guidance. The retailer plans to refocus its product ranges, improve shelf availability, and revive in-store “excitement” to restore sustainable growth. In contrast, Imperial Brands gained 2.7% after reaffirming its full-year outlook and announcing a £1.45 billion share buyback for next year. The tobacco group said strong performances in the US, Germany, and Australia offset weakness in Spain and the UK, while price increases balanced declining volumes. Shell also rose 1.3% after projecting a “significantly higher” gas trading performance in Q3, though its chemicals unit is set to post a loss. On the data front, Halifax reported UK house prices fell 0.3% in September, the first drop since May, though the market remains broadly stable.

France Trade Deficit Lowest in 8 Months: France’s trade deficit narrowed to €5.5 billion in August 2025 from a revised €5.7 billion in July, but above expectations of a €5.2 billion gap. This marks the smallest figure since December 2024. Exports were stable at €51.8 billion, as gains in transport equipment (+4.9%) and agricultural products (+0.5%) were offset by declines in refined petroleum products (-8.8%), art and antiques (-53.1%), and other industrial products (-1.4%). By region, exports rose to Africa (+8.3%), America (+4.9%), and the Middle East (+5.0%), while shipments to Asia (-12.6%) and the EU (-1.0%) declined. Meanwhile, imports fell 0.4% to €57.3 billion, driven by lower purchases of mechanical, electrical, and computer equipment (-1.1%) and refined petroleum products (-7.6%), partially offset by higher shipments of agricultural products (+3.7%) and other industrial products (+1.3%). Imports climbed from Africa (+11.8%) but fell from Asia (-3.5%) and the Middle East (-25.3%), with EU arrivals up 1.1%.

Austria Wholesale Inflation at 8-Month High: Wholesale prices in Austria rose by 1.2% year-on-year in September 2025, accelerating from a 0.2% increase in the previous month. The latest figure marked the strongest growth since January, mainly driven by higher costs of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices (+24.6%), live animals (+21.5%) and watches and jewellery (+20.8%). Upward pressures also came from non-alcoholic beverages (+8.4%), meat and meat products, sugar, chocolate and sugar confectionery (each +6.6%). In contrast, prices fell for waste and scrap (-8.7%), plastics and rubber in primary forms (-8.6%), solid fuels (-6.4%) grain, seeds and animal feeds (-5.5%), hardware, plumbing and heating equipment and supplies (-4.3%), hides and leather (-4.1%), paper and paperboard (-2.0%), other liquid and gaseous fuels and related products (-1.3%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices advanced by 0.3% in September, rebounding from a 0.6% drop in the preceding period.

TTF Prices Rise Further to 6-Week High: European natural gas futures climbed to a six-week high of €33.5 per megawatt hour on Tuesday, extending a 5.3% rally from the previous session, the largest daily gain since June 19, as colder weather forecasts stoked expectations of stronger heating demand. Temperatures in France and Germany are projected to be about 2°C below seasonal norms from mid-October, while weaker renewable generation is set to add pressure on gas consumption. At the same time, Russia’s largest wave of attacks on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure since the start of the war raised concerns over potential supply disruptions and the need for greater European gas exports to Ukraine this winter. Still, storage levels across the continent remain healthy ahead of the heating season, with EU inventories at 82.8% of capacity, including Italy at 93%, France at 92%, and Germany at 76.3%.

Coal Prices Slide as Energy Demand Softens: Newcastle coal futures fell below $105 per ton, extending this month’s losses and retreating further from the three-week high reached in late September, as new data showed renewable energy overtook coal in global electricity generation for the first time in history. In the first half of 2025, solar and wind power not only met but exceeded global electricity demand growth, leading to a modest decline in fossil fuel use from a year earlier. The trend aligns with the International Energy Agency’s projection that global clean energy capacity will double by 2030 to 4,600 gigawatts, roughly equivalent to the combined output of China, the EU, and Japan. Still, experts cautioned that such growth may fall short of meeting the world’s rapidly rising electricity needs. On the supply front, China’s thermal coal production remained 3% higher year-to-date through the first eight months of 2025.

Mauritius Inflation Cools to 4-Month Low: Mauritius’s annual inflation eased to 4.4% in September 2025, the lowest in four months, from 4.8% in August. Price growth slowed for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.1% vs 2.8% in August), transport (3.9% vs 4%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (9.2% vs 9.5%), clothing and footwear (2.8% vs 3%), and education (6.7% vs 6.8%). On the other hand, prices increased for housing and utilities (2.2% vs 2%), furnishings and household equipment (4.6% vs 4.5%), recreation, sport and culture (3.1% vs 3%), and personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods and services (2.6% vs 2.4%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased by 0.2%, following a 0.1% fall in August.

Norway Manufacturing Output Rises for 2nd Month: Norway’s manufacturing production rose by 0.7% month-over-month in August 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in the previous month. This marked the second consecutive month of growth in manufacturing activity, mainly driven by sharp recovery in the output of transport equipment n.e.c. (24% vs -13.4% in July), fabricated metal products (11.7% vs -6.7%), and refined petroleum, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals (5.3% vs -1.4%). Additionally, production declined at a lesser extent for paper and paper products (-0.9% vs -2.2%). On the other hand, activity decreased for ships, boats and oil platforms (-3.3% vs 3.1%), textiles, wearing apparel, leather (-0.7% vs 4.6%), and repair, installation of machinery (-0.1% vs 3.6%). On a yearly basis, manufacturing output climbed by 5% in August, the fastest rise in three months, following an upwardly revised 1.6% increase in the preceding period.

UK House Prices Post Smallest Gain in 1½ Years: The Halifax House Price Index in the UK rose 1.3% year-on-year in September 2025, easing from a 2% gain in August and below the expected 2.2% increase. This marked the weakest annual growth since April 2024, bringing the average property value to £298,184. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.2% rise, the same pace as August. Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax, said the slight dip reflects a broadly stable market, with prices still up 0.3% since the start of the year. She noted that while affordability remains a challenge, lower mortgage rates and steady wage growth have supported buyer confidence. The typical first-time buyer home now costs £236,811, up 1.7% year-on-year. Regionally, Northern Ireland led growth with 6.5%, followed by Scotland (4.5%) and the North East (4.8%). The South West saw its second annual decline (-0.2%), while London and the South East posted modest gains of 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.

German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Shrink: Germany’s factory orders fell 0.8% month-on-month in August 2025, missing market expectations for a 1.4% rise and following a downwardly revised 2.7% drop in the previous month. It marked the fourth straight monthly decline, largely driven by a slump in the automotive sector (-6.4%). Demand also weakened for data processing, electronic and optical products (-11.5%) and pharmaceuticals (-13.5%). In contrast, orders rose for metal products (15.4%), other transport equipment (17.1%), and electrical equipment (7.2%). By category, demand contracted for capital goods (-1.5%) and consumer goods (-10.3%) but increased for intermediate goods (3.0%). Foreign orders dropped 4.1%, with decreases from both non-euro area (-5.0%) and euro area (-2.9%) markets, while domestic demand grew 4.7%. Excluding large-scale contracts, overall orders fell 3.3%. On a three-month average basis, factory orders were down 2.3% between June and August, highlighting persistent weakness in industrial activity.

Japan Leading Economic Index Highest in 5 Months: Japan’s leading economic index — which reflects the outlook for the coming months based on indicators such as job offers and consumer sentiment — rose to 107.4 in August 2025, up from July’s 106.1 and surpassing market forecasts of 107.1, preliminary estimates showed. This marks the highest level since March, supported by improving household spending, which increased 1.4% in July, up from 1.3% in June, marking the third consecutive monthly rise in personal expenditure. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in September reached its highest level in nine months. On the other hand, the unemployment rate rose to 2.6% in August, marking the highest reading since July 2024, and employment declined to a four-month low.

Japan Coincident Index Dips to 1-1/2-Year Low: Japan’s coincident economic index—which tracks key indicators such as factory output, employment, and retail sales—fell to 113.4 in August 2025 from 114.1 in the previous month, flash data showed. It was the lowest level since February 2024, reflecting persistent cost pressures as Tokyo struggled to contain surging rice prices. The effects of U.S. trade policies were also becoming evident, even as the overall economy continued to recover at a moderate pace. Exports and industrial production were nearly flat, while rising prices continued to weigh on private consumption through weaker consumer sentiment. On the monetary front, the Bank of Japan left its short-term interest rate unchanged in July, keeping borrowing costs at their highest level since 2008 while raising its core inflation forecast for FY2025 to 2.7% from 2.2% made in April.

India Stocks Rise to Over Two-Week High: The S&P/BSE Sensex rose 0.2% to close ate 81,927 on Tuesday, gaining for the fourth straight session and hitting their highest level since September 19th amid positive corporate news and increased liquidity from the RBI's new lending reforms. The upturn was mainly supported by gains in financials and oil & gas, which rose 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Other sectors also advanced, including banking (up 0.4%), supported by strong quarterly results from major scheduled banks and attractive valuations. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 inched higher to 25,108 with small-cap and mid-cap indices up 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Among early gainers were Bajaj Finance (+1.6%), ICICI Bank (+1.1%), Power Grid (+1.1%), Tata Steel (+1.05%), and IndusInd Bank (+0.9%).

Dutch September Inflation Confirmed at 3.3%: The annual inflation rate in the Netherlands rose to 3.3% in September 2025, confirming preliminary estimates and up from 2.8% in August, marking the highest level since May. The main upward pressure came from a sharp increase in inflation for transport (2.2% vs 1.1% in August) and for upholstery and household appliances (2% vs 0.9%). Inflation also picked up for food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.3% vs 4.2%), housing and utilities (4.7% vs 4.6%), and restaurants and hotels (5.2% vs 1.3%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.1%, in line with initial data, marking the first decline since May after a 0.2% gain in August. Meanwhile, the harmonized consumer price index (HICP), which excludes housing costs and is used for EU-level comparisons, showed an acceleration to 3% in September from 2.4% in August.

Palm Oil Snaps Two-Session Losing Streak: Malaysian palm oil futures rose modestly, hovering around MYR 4,450 per tonne after two sessions of losses, supported by firmer rival oils on the Chicago exchange. Meanwhile, September export estimates pointed to notable growth, with cargo surveyors reporting shipments rose 7.3–9.6% from August. On inventories, Reuters projected Malaysia’s stockpiles fell 2.5% to 2.15 million tons last month. However, further gains were limited by a stronger ringgit and the Dalian market closure until Oct. 8 for the Golden Week, while traders cautiously awaited monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, due later this week. In India, the world’s largest palm oil consumer, purchases tumbled 15.9% in September to 833,000 tons, the lowest since May, and demand may fall further to around 600,000 tons in October as festive buying peaks mid-month. Globally, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week, adding uncertainty to global markets, including palm oil.

Copper Firms Up as Supply Disruptions Persist: Copper futures held above $5 per pound on Tuesday, hovering near their highest levels in over two months as prolonged supply disruptions in Indonesia and Chile fueled persistent shortage concerns. All workers missing after last month’s accident at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine were confirmed dead, and operator Freeport-McMoRan has indicated that full production is unlikely to resume until early 2027, cutting its 2026 sales guidance by 35%. In Chile, copper output fell nearly 10% year-on-year in August, the steepest drop since 2023, after a late-July earthquake forced Codelco to halt mining and smelting at its El Teniente site. Supporting prices further, expectations grew for another US Federal Reserve rate cut this month, with an additional reduction anticipated in December, boosting the broader demand outlook.

US 10-Year Yield Holds Advance: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.16% on Tuesday after rising for two consecutive sessions, as investors assessed the economic fallout from the ongoing government shutdown and monitored political shifts in Japan and France. The shutdown entered its seventh day after rival Democrat and Republican funding proposals failed in the Senate, leaving markets without key economic data that could guide the rate outlook. Meanwhile, traders awaited fresh remarks from Federal Reserve officials this week and the release of the FOMC’s September meeting minutes. Markets are nearly fully pricing in a quarter-point Fed rate cut this month and another in December. Treasury yields also tracked Japanese and European bond yields higher after Japan’s ruling party chose a new leader and France’s government resigned, stoking political uncertainty.

Brent Prices Hold Gains: Brent crude oil futures hovered around $65.5 per barrel on Tuesday, following a more than 1% gain in the previous session after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase. The producer group is set to boost output by 137,000 bpd in November, the same pace as in October and well below earlier speculation of a more aggressive hike. Additional support came from supply risks from Russia after reports revealed that Ukraine's drone attack on Russia's Kirishi oil refinery over the weekend halted its most productive distillation unit. Its recovery could take about a month, temporarily tightening regional supply. However, persistent worries over a supply glut amid rising output from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers as well as weak demand fundamentals continue to cap the market’s upside.

Oil Prices Hold Gains: WTI crude oil futures hovered around $61.6 per barrel on Tuesday, following a more than 1% gain in the previous session after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase. The producer group is set to boost output by 137,000 bpd in November, the same pace as in October and well below earlier speculation of a more aggressive hike. Additional support came from supply risks from Russia after reports revealed that Ukraine's drone attack on Russia's Kirishi oil refinery over the weekend halted its most productive distillation unit. Its recovery could take about a month, temporarily tightening regional supply. However, persistent worries over a supply glut amid rising output from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers as well as weak demand fundamentals continue to cap the market’s upside.

Trump Announces 25% Tariff on Imported Large Trucks Starting Nov. 1: President Donald Trump said Monday that all medium- and heavy-duty trucks imported into the US will face a 25% tariff starting November 1, according to Reuters. Last month, Trump announced that heavy truck imports would be subject to new duties beginning October 1 on national security grounds, stating the tariffs were intended to protect manufacturers from "unfair outside competition." Under trade agreements with Japan and the EU, the US has agreed to a 15% tariff on light-duty vehicles, but it remains unclear whether that rate will apply to larger vehicles. The Trump administration has also allowed manufacturers to deduct the value of U.S.-made components when calculating tariffs on light-duty vehicles assembled in Canada and Mexico. The affected larger vehicles include delivery trucks, garbage trucks, utility trucks, transit and shuttle buses, school buses, tractor-trailers, semi-trucks, and other heavy-duty vocational vehicles.