News

Soybeans Surge to July 2024 Highs: Soybean futures rose toward $11.60 per bushel their highest since July 2024 amid shrinking stocks and fresh export demand. China’s snap purchase of seven US cargoes for December and January delivery lifted physical bids and signalled immediate offtake just as the November USDA trimmed world production by about 4.1 million tonnes to roughly 421.75 million tonnes and cut global ending stocks to about 121.99 million tonnes which reduced the buffer traders had been relying on. Strength in soymeal and soy oil amplified buying from crushers and feed users because European regulatory uncertainty and robust Asian feed demand pushed meal values higher. Meanwhile, South American planting remains uneven leaving the crop vulnerable to downside revisions. Competitive US Gulf offers at premiums to Brazil and active export tenders confirmed that nearby supplies can be drawn down quickly so buying by large importers against a smaller global stocks cushion kept prices on the rise.

Agricultural Commodities Updates: Wheat Rises by 3.03%: Top commodity gainers are Wheat (3.03%), Soybeans (2.58%) and Canola (1.51%). Biggest losers are Lumber (-2.66%), Orange Juice (-1.30%) and Cocoa (-1.24%).

Metals Commodities Updates: Iron Ore CNY Gains by 1.35%: Top commodity gainers are Iron Ore CNY (1.35%), Lithium Carbonate (1.17%) and Steel Rebar (1.15%). Biggest losers are Copper (-0.69%) and Gold (-0.28%).

Energy Commodities Updates: Natural gas Falls by 1.96%: Top commodity losers are Natural gas (-1.96%), Methanol (-0.89%) and Gasoline (-0.50%). Gains are led by Heating Oil (0.94%) and Natural Gas EU (0.70%). Meanwhile, Crude Oil WTI and Brent Crude Oil were little changed.

US Stocks Fall for 3rd Session: US stocks remained in the negative territory during the afternoon session on Monday as markets continued to position for the series of delayed economic data to be released before the Federal Reserve's next meeting. Key reports that were delayed by the government shutdown, including the jobs report and trade data, are due this week and could influence the Fed's upcoming decision when many policymakers are growing more skeptical about the need for additional rate cuts. Rate futures indicate that 40% of the market is positioned for a cut, compared to the near consensus earlier in November. Alphabet gained 4% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had taken a $4.9 billion stake in the company during the third quarter. Meanwhile, Nvidia dropped 1.5% ahead of its earnings release after Wednesday's close, the latest test on how frothy AI stocks may have become this year.

DAX Ends at Over 1-Week Low: Germany's moved into negative territory to close about 1.2% lower at 23,591 on Monday, the lowest since November 7, lagging behind its regional peers. Caution prevailed ahead of incoming US economic data and highly anticipated earnings from US tech giant Nvidia, while doubts about a Fed rate cut in December also weighed. Siemens AG led the losses, down 2.8%, followed by Commerzbank (-2.7%), Siemens Healthineers (-2.5%), Zalando (-2.2%), Infineon Technologies (-2.1%) and Deutsche Post (-2%). On the upside, Heidelberg Materials (+1.7%), Airbus (+1.2%), Rheinmetall (+1.1%) and Siemens Energy (+1.1%) emerged as the top gainers.

Cotton Futures at 8-Month Lows: Cotton futures extended their downward trend to trade around 62.4 cents per pound, the lowest level since March, pressured by an uptick in the US dollar and forecasts of ample supply. The USDA’s November 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) raised the forecast for US production by 900,000 bales to 14.1 million compared to September, citing higher expected yields across most states and increasing the projected national average yield almost 7% to 919 pounds per harvested acre. The export forecast was also lifted 200,000 bales to 12.2 million. Global cotton production is now forecast 2.4 million bales higher with increases of 1 million bales in China, about 900,000 bales in the United States, and 500,000 bales in Brazil. Meanwhile, global consumption was raised by 50,000 bales.

FTSE 100 Falls for 3rd Session: The FTSE 100 fell 0.2% on Monday, marking a third consecutive session of losses as investors stayed cautious ahead of the November 26 UK budget, following Friday’s sharp selloff triggered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s reversal on income-tax plans. Major blue chips including HSBC, Rolls-Royce, and Relx each declined around 1%, while Barclays and Lloyds dropped roughly 0.8%, and BAE Systems fell 0.4%. In contrast, WPP surged nearly 11% after reports that Dutch communications group Havas showed high-level interest in a potential deal, drawing investor attention to the stock despite its 65% decline this year amid client spending cuts and AI-driven disruption. Other notable gainers included British American Tobacco, up 1.7%, and AstraZeneca, which rose 0.8%, helping offset some of the broader market weakness.

Nickel Falls to 7-Month Low: Nickel futures in the UK sank to $14,650 per tonne in November, the lowest since the four-year low of $13,900 touched in April and significantly underperforming other base metals due to mounting oversupply. Output remained ample amid the over-expansion of Indonesia's nickel sector since the country blocked the export of ores in 2020. This drove the largest nickel consumers to establish refiners within Indonesia and capacity soared, leading to supply surpluses. The Indonesian government reduced nickel mining quotas by 120 million tons to 150 million this year, cutting global supply by 35% from current levels, although soft bidding prices throughout the year indicated that markets don't see constraints dampening the oversupplied backdrop. Nickel stockpiles at LME warehouses rose by 90,000 tonnes this year to over 250,000. On the demand front, muted purchasing levels of stainless steel globally were offset by the higher usage of nickel in electric vehicles.

Arabica Coffee Futures at Over 1-Week Low: Arabica coffee futures traded around $4 per pound, near their lowest level in over a week, pressured by forecasts of bumper crops in major producing countries, particularly Brazil. Global coffee market analyst Rabobank forecasts a global coffee market surplus of 7–10 million bags in 2026/27, supported by a recovery in Brazil’s Arabica production. In the meantime, StoneX expects a strong production recovery next year, projecting a record 70.7 million-bag crop in Brazil for 2026/27, up 13.5% from the previous year. A very abundant Brazilian harvest would help replenish stocks following the 2021–2024 period of continuous supply shortages. Meanwhile, President Trump recently issued an order removing the reciprocal tariffs on many agricultural goods implemented in April, but Brazilian agricultural products remain subject to a 40% surcharge.

Baltic Dry Index Hits 7-Week High: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, was up for a third session on Monday, rising about 1.3% to its highest level since September 29 at 2,153 points, mainly driven by the larger vessel segment. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, advanced for a third day, up 2.3% to 3,328 points; and the supramax index rose 1.1% to 1,423 points, recording its eighth consecutive gain. On the other hand, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, decreased 0.5% to 1,887 points.

TSX Struggles for Direction at Week's Start: The S&P/TSX Composite Index hovered below the flatline at the 30,330 mark on Monday as investors focused on fresh economic indicators in Canada and the US. Canada’s annual inflation eased to 2.2% in October while core rates tracked by the BoC held near the 3% threshold, maintaining the central bank's outlook that it is likely done with rate cuts. Tech mega-cap Shopify was among top laggards losing near 2%, while Brookfield lost around 1.5%. On the other hand, major gold miner Barrick Mining added close to 2% to help offset losses for the index as the company’s board is considering splitting the company into two separate entities. Meanwhile, the end of the prolonged US government shutdown means key economic data from the US, especially on jobs, will resume this week, helping guide the Fed.

US Construction Spending Unexpectedly Rises: Construction spending in the US rose 0.2% month-over-month in August 2025, matching the upwardly revised 0.2% increase in July and defying expectations of a 0.1% decline. Residential construction spending surged 0.8%, offsetting a 0.2% decline in nonresidential activity. Within the nonresidential sector, construction fell in manufacturing (-0.9%), power (-0.2%), highways and streets (-0.2%), and transportation (-0.5%), but rose in the educational segment (0.7%). Meanwhile, private construction spending increased 0.3%, with residential activity up 0.8% and nonresidential projects rising 0.3%. On the other hand, public construction spending was virtually unchanged from July. Year-on-year, construction spending declined 1.6%. For the first eight months of the year, total construction spending reached $1,438.0 billion, 1.8% lower than in the same period of 2024.

Japanese Yen Hits 40-week Low: The Japanese Yen touched 155.06 against the USD, the lowest since February 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Japanese Yen gained 2.85%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 0.27%.

Canada 10-Year Bond Yield Holds Near 2-Month Highs: The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond held above 3.22%, near two-month high as a tight cluster of domestic forces is lifting term premia even as headline inflation eases. Core inflation remains around 3% which together with stronger labour data unemployment at 6.9% and wage growth near 4% keeps upside pressure on prospective inflation and reduces the case for rapid easing. The BoC cut the policy rate to 2.25% but signalled a data dependent stance that makes markets less confident about further cuts and pushes out the expected easing path. At the same time, Canada's Budget 2025 raises expected marketable issuance to fund a roughly C$78.3 billion deficit for 2025–26 and pushes large volumes into the 10 year and longer maturities. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's stress test assigns only about a 7.5% chance of meeting the government's 1.5% of GDP deficit anchor by 2029–30 which undermines credibility and forces investors to demand higher compensation for duration risk.

South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield at 2021-Lows: South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield eased to near 8.60%, its lowest level since February 2021, after S&P Global upgraded the nation’s credit rating for the first time since 2005 on the back of a credible and optimistic medium-term budget review. At the same time, Treasury's backing of the new 3% inflation target, aimed at anchoring prices at lower levels, strengthens monetary policy credibility and paves the way for lower interest rates. Markets are pricing in a possible 25-basis-point cut by the South African Reserve Bank on November 20, contingent on October inflation data due the day before. Investor confidence has notably strengthened recently, fueling a rally in South African assets, amid progress in fiscal consolidation, the ongoing government stability, and structural improvements such as more reliable electricity supply and increased infrastructure investment.

Lithium Rises to Over 1-Year High: Lithium carbonate futures in China rose past CNY 86,000 per tonne in November, the highest in 14 months, amid stronger demand for batteries and power infrastructure. China signaled its latest support to the electric vehicle industry and lithium-rich energy storage systems with compensation mechanisms for power storage infrastructure, doubling EV charging capacity to 180 gigawatts by 2027. Also, output of new energy vehicles in China rose by 33.1% in the first ten months of the year, with October sales reflecting 51.6% of the market share, the first majority for new energy vehicles on record. Consequently, major producer Ganfeng signaled they expect lithium demand to grow by 30% next year. On the supply front, markets continued to assess the magnitude of intervention that Beijing will enforce due to its anti-involution initiative. Beijing approved the restart of activity in CATL's Jiangxi mine after its suspension, enabling activity in the mine responsible for 3% of global supply.

Wall Street Cautious to Start the Week: The three major US stock indexes extended losses and were down roughly 0.5% on Monday, as investors braced for the return of key economic data releases following the end of last week’s government shutdown. Key reports including the jobs report and trade data are due this week and could influence the Fed’s policy decision next month, at a time when many policymakers are growing more sceptical about the need for additional rate cuts. Markets are currently pricing in about a 43% chance of a quarter-point cut in December. Meanwhile, Nvidia is set to report quarterly earnings this week, with its shares down 2.2%. Apple also declined 2% as the company is stepping up its succession planning efforts. Amazon fell 1.7% and Eli Lilly slipped 0.7% after news that Novo Nordisk is cutting prices on its obesity drugs for cash-pay patients. In contrast, Alphabet gained 4% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had taken a stake in the company.

Treasury Yields Edge Lower: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note slipped to 4.14% on Monday, as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of a key week for economic data. Following the end of the government shutdown, several delayed releases including the jobs report and trade figures will be published by major statistical agencies. These updates will offer a clearer view of the US economy and labour market at a time when many policymakers are becoming more skeptical about the need for further rate cuts. Market expectations for a quarter-point cut in December have eased to around 43%, down sharply from levels seen last week. The release of the FOMC minutes may also provide additional insight into the Fed’s plans.

US Futures Point to a Cautious Start: US stock futures pared early gains to trade flat to slightly lower on Monday, as investors braced for the resumption of economic data releases from major statistical agencies following the end of last week’s government shutdown. Key reports including the jobs report and trade data are due this week and could influence the Fed’s policy decision next month, at a time when many policymakers are growing more skeptical about the need for additional rate cuts. Markets are currently pricing in about a 43% chance of a quarter-point cut in December. Meanwhile, Nvidia is set to report quarterly earnings, with its shares down 1.8% in premarket trading. Eli Lilly slipped 1.6% after news that Novo Nordisk is cutting prices on its obesity drugs for cash-pay patients. In contrast, Alphabet gained 3% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed it had taken a stake in the company.

TSX Futures Slip as Investors Eye Data Flow: Futures tracking Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index edged down on Monday as investors focused on fresh economic indicators in Canada and the US. Canada’s annual inflation eased to 2.2% in October while core rates tracked by the BoC held near the 3% threshold, maintaining the central bank's outlook that it is likely done with rate cuts. Gold prices fell, weighing on Canadian miners, while higher oil prices offered support to major producers. In corporate news, Barrick Mining’s board is considering splitting the company into two separate entities. Meanwhile, the end of the prolonged US government shutdown means key economic data from the US, especially on jobs, will resume this week, helping guide the Fed.

Canadian Dollar Steady After Inflation Data: The Canadian dollar steadied around 1.40 per USD, holding to its rebound from the seven-month low of 1.412 on November 6th as markets weighed persistent price pressures against a firm labor market. The trimmed-mean core inflation rate, the BoC's preferred gauge of underlying inflation, eased to 3% in October but remained close to last month’s peak since February 2024. The data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada likely concluded its rate-cutting cycle at the previous meeting, as policymakers indicated if their base case holds, with the economy showing resilience to US tariffs and core inflation measures still above target. Earlier, the unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October from the four-year high of 7.1% in September, supported by a sharp employment gain and fewer jobseekers. Wage growth also accelerated to an eight-month high of 4%, outpacing the latest inflation readings.

Foreign Investment in Canada Rises to April 2024 High: Foreign investors increased their holdings of Canadian securities by C$31.32 billion in September 2025, gaining traction from the upwardly revised C$23.6 billion in the previous month, to mark the highest investment since April 2024. The surge was carried by a C$28.7 billion net increase in holdings of debt securities, mostly through money market instruments (C$8.5 billion) as the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate to 2.50% in September, while net holdings of bonds rose by C$20.1 billion. Additionally, holdings of equity in Canadian companies rose by C$2.7 billion, aligned with gains in benchmark TSX indices during the month. In the meantime, Canadian investors increased their holdings in foreign financial assets by $22.1 billion.

NY Manufacturing Activity Sees Strongest Rise in a Year: The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US jumped to 18.7 in November 2025, the highest in a year, from 10.7 in October, and much better than forecasts of 6. The reading showed manufacturing activity grew at a solid pace in New York State, with new orders (15.9 vs 3.7) and shipments (16.8 vs 14.4) increasing significantly. Delivery times lengthened modestly (7.7 vs 3.9), and supply availability worsened somewhat (-11.5 vs -10.7) while inventories expanded (6.7 vs -1). Labor market indicators improved, pointing to a small increase in employment (6.6 vs 6.2) and a longer average workweek (7.7 vs -4.1). The pace of both input price increases (49 vs 52.4) and selling price increases slowed slightly (24 vs 27.2), but remained elevated. Meanwhile, firms expect conditions to improve, but optimism for the future dipped, with the index for future general business conditions declining to 19.1 from 30.3.

Canada Inflation Rate Eases: The headline inflation rate in Canada fell to 2.2% in October of 2025 from 2.4% in the previous month, loosely converging toward the 2% threshold in the near term as projected in the Bank of Canada's baseline scenario. Gasoline prices sank by 9.4% from the previous year, picking up from the 4.1% deflation rate last month as the persistent view of an oversupplied global crude oil market pressured prices in the sector. Consequently, transportation inflation slowed to 0.7% from 1.7%. Price growth also eased for food (3.4% vs 3.8% in September) due to lower price growth for food preparations (3.2%), while inflation also eased for shelter (2.5% vs 2.6%). In the meantime, costs of cellular services jumped by 7.7% to record their first increase in over two years amid price hikes by several major wireless providers. Inflation also rose for mortgage insurance (6.8%) and car insurance (7.3%). Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean core inflation rate, which is closely tracked by the BoC, inched down to 3%.

Nigeria Inflation Rate Drops to Over 3-1/2-Year Low: Nigeria’s annual inflation rate fell further to 16.05% in October 2025, the softest since March 2022, from 18.02% in the prior month. This marked the seventh consecutive month of slowing price growth. Food inflation, the largest component of the inflation basket, recorded another sharp decline to 13.12%, from 16.87% in September, helped by the ongoing harvest and a stronger currency. The core inflation rate, which strips out the volatile prices of agricultural produce and energy, slowed for the fourth month to 18.7% in October, the lowest since February 2023, from 19.5% in September. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.9% In October, after increasing by 0.7% in the prior month.

Italy 10-Year BTP Yields Near October Highs Ahead of US Data: Italy’s 10-year BTP yield held just below 3.45%, near its highest level since mid-October, as investors digested updated European Commission economic projections and awaited delayed US data, including September’s employment report, for signals on the Fed’s policy path. The Commission lowered its GDP forecast for Italy to 0.4% in 2025, down from 0.7% in the spring, citing weakness in net exports and the impact of US tariffs, while projecting 0.8% growth in 2026 and 2027, supported by RRF-financed investment. For the Eurozone overall, 2025 growth was upgraded to 1.3% from 0.9%, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will keep rates steady. In the US, bets on a December Fed rate cut eased amid diverging views among Fed officials. On the political front, Italy’s 2025 budget is under parliamentary review, targeting a deficit reduction to 3.0% from 3.4% in 2024, which could help the country exit the EU’s excessive deficit procedure by 2026.

France 10-Year Bond Yields Steady Ahead of US Data: The yield on France’s 10-year government bond stabilized around 3.44% as investors held back ahead of delayed US data, including September’s employment report, for guidance on the Fed’s policy path. Meanwhile, the European Commission revised its outlook for France, now forecasting 0.7% GDP growth in 2025, down from 1.2% projected in the spring, with a gradual rebound to 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. Domestic demand is expected to remain subdued amid economic uncertainty and necessary fiscal adjustments. This contrasts with Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau’s remarks last week, which suggested potential upward revisions to 2025–2026 growth, citing the economy’s resilience despite political uncertainty. On the political front, France’s National Assembly approved a temporary suspension of the pension reform, averting a no-confidence vote, though a final vote on the broader social security bill is still pending.

US Natgas Prices Fall from 3-Year High: US natural gas futures fell over 2% to below $4.5/MMBtu, retreating from a near three-year high of $4.65 reached on November 13, as short-term mild weather eased immediate heating demand. Also, US production in the Lower 48 states reached a record 109 bcfd so far in November, a fresh record, supporting ample storage levels now 4.5% above seasonal norms. Despite ample supply, strong LNG export demand persists, averaging 17.8 bcfd in November, up from 16.7 bcfd in October, driven by European demand amid reduced Russian flows. Traders also weighed expectations for colder conditions in early December, which could lift heating needs and support prices in the near term.

Indian Labor Market Holds Robust Momentum: The unemployment rate in India was at 5.2% in October of 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous month to remain relatively close to the record-low of 5.1% last reached two months prior. The result reflected an initial resilience to the labor market during a month of aggressive tariffs announced by the US government on Indian goods. Unemployment inched higher for urban areas of the country (7% vs 6.8% in September), offsetting the decrease in unemployment for rural areas (4.4% vs 4.6%). In the meantime, the overall employment rate rose to 52.5% from 52.4%, while the labor force participation rate inched higher to 55.4% from 55.3%).

Bund Yields Stabilize as Investors Digest EU Growth Forecasts: Germany’s 10-year Bund yield stabilized around 2.7%, its highest level since early October, as investors digested updated European Commission economic projections and braced for a wave of delayed US data, including September’s employment report, for further signals on the Fed’s policy direction. The Commission revised its outlook for Germany, now forecasting 0.2% GDP growth in 2025, up from -0.2% predicted in the spring, and a rebound to 1.2% in 2026 and 2027, reflecting a boost from increased public spending partially offset by trade tensions affecting exports. Meanwhile, the German Council of Economic Experts trimmed its 2026 growth forecast to 0.9% from May’s 1.0%, more pessimistic than the government’s 1.3% projection, following near-stagnation in 2025. On monetary policy, the ECB is expected to keep rates on hold for some time, while US markets now see only a 40% chance of a December Fed cut following a slew of hawkish remarks from FOMC members.

Sensex Ends at Near 3-Week High: India's BSE Sensex close about 0.5% up at 84,951 on Monday, the highest level since October 29, marking the sixth straight session of advances. Market sentiment remained supported by a healthy earnings season, prospects of an India-US trade deal and expectations of rate cuts by the Bank of India. The NDA's win in the Bihar elections 2025 and Reserve Bank of India’s relief measures for export-linked industries affected by US tariffs gave an additional boost. Top gainers included Eternal, Maruti Suzuki India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, Titan, HDFC Bank, adding between 0.8% and 2%. On the other hand, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles plunged nearly 5%, after slashing full-year margin guidance, despite a 2110% yoy surge in net profit, as weak performance at Jaguar Land Rover weighed on results. Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, Bharat Electronics were also among the biggest laggards, with losses up to 0.9%.

UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Edges Down from 1-Month High: The UK 10-year gilt yield eased to 4.55% after hitting a one-month high of 4.58% on Friday, following a sharp selloff triggered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s decision to drop planned income-tax increases. The move raised concerns about the UK’s fiscal sustainability, despite the Office for Budget Responsibility revising the projected budget deficit down to £20 billion from £35 billion, supported by stronger revenues and wage growth. Reeves is still expected to raise funds via threshold adjustments and salary-sacrifice reforms, having chosen a smaller-scale budget over major tax hikes. Political uncertainty persists amid cabinet divisions and recent turmoil around Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Markets now price in roughly a 75% chance of a December Bank of England rate cut. Investors this week will focus on inflation data, flash PMIs, and potential moderation in manufacturing and services growth.

European Stocks Fall for 3rd Session: Both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 extended losses on Monday, with the former down 0.6% and the latter falling 0.4%, continuing the decline that began last Thursday. Caution prevailed among traders ahead of key catalysts due this week. Nvidia is scheduled to release quarterly results, while in the US a series of economic data begins rolling out today following the end of the government shutdown. Financials, insurers and luxury names were among the biggest laggards. Burberry led losses on the STOXX 600, dropping more than 4%, followed by Worldline (-4.2%) and Adyen (-3%). Siemens (-2.1%), Inditex (-1.9%), Bayer (-1.8%) and LVMH (-1.6%) also traded sharply lower. On the upside, SAAB surged more than 7% after signing a €3.1 billion contract with the Colombian government to deliver 17 Gripen fighter jets over the next five years. Airbus gained 1.3% after reports that it is poised to secure the majority of an aircraft order under negotiation with Flydubai.

Euro Steady as Investors Eye ECB Speeches and US Data: The euro held around $1.16 at the start of a quiet week, with investors awaiting European Central Bank speeches and key US economic data delayed by the government shutdown, including September’s employment report, for guidance on Federal Reserve policy. Earlier on Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation will converge toward the bank’s target, but cautioned about tariffs, sovereign debt, and the risks of a sudden shift in market sentiment. Meanwhile, the European Commission raised its Eurozone growth forecast for 2025 to 1.3%, up from 0.9% in its spring outlook, citing a surge in exports to the US as companies stocked up ahead of Trump-era tariffs. Growth is then expected to slow to 1.2% in 2026, down from 1.4%, before rising to 1.4% in 2027.

EU Raises 2025 Eurozone Growth Forecast: The European Commission has upgraded its growth forecast for the Eurozone economy in 2025 to 1.3%, up from 0.9% projected in its spring forecasts, according to the Autumn update. Growth is then expected to slow slightly to 1.2% in 2026, before rising to 1.4% in 2027. The EC noted that economic activity exceeded expectations in the first nine months of the year, supported by a surge in exports to the US as companies stocked up ahead of Trump’s tariffs, and stronger-than-expected investment in equipment and intangible assets. Among major Eurozone economies, Germany is projected to grow 0.2% in 2025 (up from -0.2%), rebounding to 1.2% in 2026 and 2027. France is expected to expand 0.7% this year (down from 1.2%), rising to 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. Spain will outperform with growth of 2.9% in 2025, 2.3% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while Italy is set to grow 0.4% in 2025, and 0.8% in 2026 and 2027.

TTF Prices Rebound as Winter Approaches: European natural gas futures edged above €31 per megawatt-hour, recovering from a 1-1/2-year low of €30.5 on November 13, as a sudden cold front increased heating demand. With winter approaching, supply pressures are rising, echoing last year’s volatility. EU gas storage stands at 82.02% of capacity, down from 91.27% last year, indicating potential for heavier withdrawals over the coming fortnight to maintain system balance. Norwegian pipeline flows are unchanged, and LNG imports remain steady but insufficient to fully offset the cold. So far this year, European LNG imports have reached 101.38 million tons, up 16.75 million tons from 2024. Meanwhile, Ukraine secured US LNG via Greece for Dec 2024-Mar 2025, hedging winter risks amid geopolitical tensions.

Italy October Inflation Confirmed at 1.2%: Italy’s annual inflation slowed to 1.2% in October 2025, down from 1.6% in September, confirming preliminary estimates and marking the lowest level in a year. The deceleration was driven by a sharp drop in regulated energy prices (–0.5% vs 13.9% in September), alongside softer increases in unprocessed food (1.9% vs 4.8%), transport services (2.0% vs 2.4%), and processed food (2.5% vs 2.7%). These declines were partly offset by faster price growth in recreational and personal care services (3.3% vs 3.1%) and a smaller drop in unregulated energy (–4.9% vs –5.2%). Meanwhile, Core inflation eased to 1.9% from 2.0%, while goods inflation slowed to 0.2% from 0.6%, and services inflation remained steady at 2.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.3%, extending the 0.2% decline recorded in September.

FTSE 100 Little Changed on Monday: The FTSE 100 traded mostly flat on Monday after two sessions of roughly 1% losses, offering a calmer start to the week following Friday’s sharp selloff triggered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s u-turn on income-tax plans. WPP was among the top performers, rising nearly 4% after reports that Dutch communications group Havas has shown high-level interest in a potential deal. WPP shares, down 65% this year amid client spending cuts and AI-driven disruption, drew renewed investor attention. Other gainers included 3i, up over 2.5%, SSE up more than 1.5%, and British American Tobacco up about 1.5%. Offsetting these moves, Burberry dropped 4%, while miners weakened, with Anglo American and Antofagasta down over 1% and Glencore slipping 0.8%.

European Stocks Lack Direction: Both the STOXX 50 and the STOXX 600 hovered around the flatline on Monday, following two consecutive sessions of losses, as traders awaited fresh market catalysts. Nvidia is set to report quarterly results this week, while in the US, a series of economic data releases begins today after the end of the government shutdown. Siemens Energy gained 3.3%, ranking among the top performers. Airbus rose 1% after reports that it is poised to secure the majority of an aircraft order under negotiation with Flydubai, and as Air China Cargo placed an order for six A350F freighters. SAAB surged more than 6% after signing a €3.1 billion ($3.62 billion) contract with the Colombian government to deliver 17 Gripen fighter jets over the next five years. On the downside, Siemens (-0.8%), LVMH (-0.6%), and Bayer (-0.7%) traded in the red, while Adyen NV slid 2%, making it the worst performer on the STOXX 600.

Turkey's Budget Deficit Widens in October: Turkey’s government budget posted a TRY 223.2 billion deficit in October 2025, widening from TRY 186.3 billion in the same month a year earlier. Total budget expenditures rose 43.4% year-on-year to TRY 1.37 trillion, driven by higher non-interest spending (+48%) at TRY 1.21 trillion, while interest payments increased 15.6% to TRY 157.4 billion. Meanwhile, budget revenues grew 49.1% from a year earlier to TRY 1.15 trillion, supported by a 51.6% jump in tax receipts to TRY 976 billion, with strong gains in income tax, domestic VAT, and banking & insurance transaction taxes. The country’s primary balance shifted to a TRY 65.8 billion deficit in October 2025, compared with a TRY 50.1 billion deficit last year.

China Stocks Fall on Geopolitical Tensions: The Shanghai Composite fell 0.46% to close at 3,972, while the Shenzhen Component dropped 0.11% to 13,202 on Monday, extending losses from the prior session as rising geopolitical tensions between China and Japan weighed on sentiment. Last week, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan's survival and potentially trigger a military response. Meanwhile, Beijing cautioned Tokyo against intervening over Taiwan and warned Chinese citizens about traveling to Japan. Notable declines came from heavyweight firms including Contemporary Amperex down 3.3%, Sungrow Power down 0.7%, Cambricon Technologies down 1.7%, Shannon Semiconductor down 2.1%, and Zhejiang Century down 9.2%. There are no major economic releases scheduled for China this week, though the People’s Bank of China is expected to keep loan prime rates steady.

Platinum Falls on Hawkish Fed View: Platinum fell to around $1,550 per ounce, hitting a one-week low as traders dialed back expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, triggering a pullback in precious metals. Markets are currently pricing in around a 46% chance the Fed will lower rates by 25 bps in December, down sharply from roughly 88% a month ago. These developments came as several Fed officials expressed skepticism over the need for a rate cut next month, with some opposing it entirely. Investors are now looking ahead to the closely watched US jobs report for September, due Thursday, while awaiting an updated schedule of economic data releases. Platinum has surged over 70% year-to-date, outperforming gold, supported by tight supply and strong industrial demand. Elsewhere, China approved registration for platinum and palladium futures and options, marking a key step toward launching derivatives trading for metals used by automakers and other industries.

Iron Ore Gains on China Stimulus Hopes, Tighter Supply: Iron ore futures in China rose above CNY 780 per ton, reaching a two week high amid optimism that top consumer China may roll out new stimulus measures, while port inventories continued to tighten. Over the weekend, Finance Minister Lan Foan said fiscal policy will be strengthened over the next five years, noting that China will use tools such as the budget, taxation, government bonds and transfer payments to provide sustained support for economic and social development. Meanwhile, total iron ore inventories across 35 major ports in China fell by 1.32 million metric tons. Steel demand growth is picking up in China's non-property sectors, which now account for more than 72% of total steel demand. The property market also shows signs of stabilizing, though meaningful growth in steel and iron ore demand is unlikely until new construction activity improves.

Palm Oil Starts Week Notably Higher: Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,150 per tonne on Monday, picking up from two subdued sessions. A weaker ringgit and firmer Dalian’s most-active soyoil and palm oil contracts supported sentiment, helping prices recover from a four-month low. However, lingering uncertainties around land-seizure policies in top producer Indonesia and its biodiesel plan added caution, limiting the upside. Gains were further capped by a cargo surveyor's estimates showing Malaysian palm oil product shipments for November 1–15 fell 15.5% from the previous month. On the supply side, industry data showed October output jumped 11.02% to the highest since August 2015, while stocks climbed to a 6-1/2-year peak. In India, the largest consumer, palm oil imports fell to a five-month low in October as buyers shifted to soybean oil amid rising palm prices. For the 2024/25 marketing year, India’s imports dropped 16% to 7.56 million tonnes, the lowest in five years.

European Markets Set for Muted Open: European equity markets were poised to open largely unchanged on Monday ahead of a quiet session for regional economic and earnings releases. Still, key data later this week include flash PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany, France, and the UK along with inflation and GDP figures from across the region. Investors are also watching a busy lineup of US corporate earnings headlined by AI chipmaker Nvidia on Wednesday. A heavy slate of US data is expected as well after shutdown-related delays, with the September jobs report due Thursday. In premarket trade, Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 futures were flat to slightly lower.

Japan Industrial Output Growth Revised Higher: Japan’s industrial production rose 2.6% month-over-month in September 2025, surpassing flash data of a 2.2% increase and rebounding from a 1.5% drop in the previous month. It marked the first monthly expansion since June and the fastest pace since March 2024, boosted by a recovery in some key industries. Output bounced back for production machinery (6.3% vs -2.1% in August), inorganic and organic chemicals (9.1% vs -5.4%), and fabricated metals (7.6% vs -8.1%). On an annual basis, industrial production expanded 3.8%, reversing a 1.6% decline in August and posting the strongest yearly growth in three months.

Silver Stabilizes After Two-Day Drop: Silver held near $51 per ounce on Monday after a sharp two-day decline, as investors prepared for a wave of US economic data following the government reopening that could clarify the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Precious metals faced heavy selling late last week as traders scaled back expectations for US rate cuts, with markets now pricing in about a 46% chance of a 25 bps Fed reduction next month, down sharply from roughly 88% a month earlier. Attention is turning to the closely watched September jobs report due Thursday, while markets await an updated schedule of economic releases. Meanwhile, the US Department of Interior recently added silver, copper, and metallurgical coal to its “critical minerals” list, underscoring their economic and national security importance. The designation could pave the way for Section 232 investigations and trade restrictions, as previously applied to copper earlier this year.

Japan 10-Year Yield Hits Fresh 17-Year High: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 1.71% on Monday, reaching its highest level since 2008 amid stronger-than-expected growth data. Japans economy contracted 0.4% quarter on quarter in the three months to September, reversing a 0.6% expansion in Q2 but beating market forecasts for a 0.6% decline. The rise came despite Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urging the Bank of Japan to maintain low interest rates. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, however, pointed to resilient consumption supported by higher household incomes and a strengthening labor market, noting that underlying inflation is gradually approaching the BOJs 2% target and leaving the door open for an imminent rate hike. Meanwhile, growing fiscal concerns in Japan, fueled by expectations of aggressive stimulus measures, added further upward pressure on JGB yields.

US 10-Year Yield Holds Advance: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.15% on Monday after rising for two straight sessions, as investors scaled back expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Several Fed officials have voiced skepticism over the need for a December cut, with some opposing it entirely. Markets are currently pricing in about a 46% chance of a 25 bps reduction next month, down sharply from roughly 88% a month ago. Investors are also looking ahead to a wave of US economic data releases delayed by the government shutdown to help guide Fed policy. The closely watched September jobs report is due Thursday, while markets await an updated schedule for other indicators. Key private reports this week include flash S&P PMIs, existing home sales, the NAHB housing index, and the weekly ADP employment figure.

Gold Steady as Investors Await Delayed US Data: Gold prices steadied around $4,080 per ounce on Monday after two days of losses, as investors braced for a flood of delayed US economic data set to be released this week for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Thursday’s September non-farm payrolls report will be a key focus, while traders will also parse the Fed’s latest meeting minutes on Wednesday. Expectations for a December rate cut have diminished following hawkish comments from Fed officials last week, with markets now assigning a 46% probability, compared to over 60% earlier this month. Still, bullion is up 55% so far this year, on track for its strongest annual gain since 1979, buoyed by robust central bank buying and sustained demand from investors seeking protection against rising fiscal and geopolitical risks.

US to Remove Tariffs on $1.25 Billion of New Zealand Exports: New Zealand on Sunday welcomed the United States’ announcement that it would remove additional tariffs on a range of New Zealand agricultural products, including beef, offal, and kiwifruit, but said it would like to see all additional US tariffs on New Zealand goods removed. President Donald Trump on Friday lifted tariffs he had imposed on more than 200 food products, including beef, amid consumer concerns about rising US grocery prices. The products account for around 25% of New Zealand's exports to the US, worth roughly NZ$2.21 billion ($1.25 billion) annually, according to the New Zealand government. “The US remains an important trade partner for New Zealand, and the decision to lift these tariffs is a step in the right direction and will be welcomed by exporters who have faced months of uncertainty and higher costs,” New Zealand’s trade minister, Todd McClay, said in a statement, as reported by Reuters.

Brent Steadies as Russian Port Resumes Exports: Brent crude oil futures traded at around $64.4 per barrel on Monday, after two consecutive sessions of gains, as Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed operations following a two-day shutdown caused by a Ukrainian drone strike. Reports indicated that two crude tankers were moored at the port on Sunday, signaling ongoing activity at the terminals. The disruption at Russia’s second-largest oil export hub had pushed crude prices up more than 2% on Friday to close the week with a modest gain. Meanwhile, President Trump on Sunday said that Republicans are drafting a bill to sanction any country trading with Russia and mentioned that Iran could be added to the list. Still, the outlook for the oil market remains bearish, with expectations of a supply glut later this year and next, as both OPEC and non-OPEC producers increase output amid slowing demand growth.

Oil Steadies as Russian Port Resumes Exports: WTI crude oil futures traded at around $60 per barrel on Monday, after two sessions of gains, as Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed operations following a two-day shutdown caused by a Ukrainian drone strike. Reports indicated that two crude tankers were moored at the port on Sunday, signaling ongoing activity at the terminals. The disruption at Russia’s second-largest oil export hub had pushed crude prices up more than 2% on Friday to close the week with a modest gain. Meanwhile, President Trump on Sunday said that Republicans are drafting a bill to sanction any country trading with Russia and mentioned that Iran could be added to the list. Still, the outlook for the oil market remains bearish, with expectations of a supply glut later this year and next, as both OPEC and non-OPEC producers increase output amid slowing demand growth.

US Futures Rise Ahead of Key Data, Earnings: US stock futures climbed on Monday as investors geared up for a wave of economic data releases delayed by the government shutdown along with earnings from major companies this week. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2% and 0.4% while Dow futures were flat. Key economic releases expected this week include the September jobs report though markets are still awaiting a revised schedule. On the corporate front, AI chipmaker Nvidia will post earnings on Wednesday along with other S&P 500 names such as Home Depot, Target, Walmart, Palo Alto Networks and Intuit. Last week the major averages initially advanced before turning lower amid ongoing concerns about stretched AI valuations and uncertainty over the Federal Reserves rate cutting path. Markets are now pricing in less than a 50% chance that the Fed will deliver a 25 bps rate cut next month, down from nearly 90% one month earlier.