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European Stocks Close Lower: European stocks closed mostly lower on Monday as fresh political turmoil in France rekindled concerns of fiscal instability among the Eurozone's largest economies. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 dropped 0.3% to 5,633 and the pan-European STOXX 50 closed flat at 571. Markets were rattled by the resignation of Prime Minister Lecornu as the French parliament remained against spending cuts in the country's budget, just weeks after taking office and a day after President Macron unveiled a new government. French banks and insurers fell sharply as the slide for OATs pressured their balance sheets and lifted their liquidity rates, with BNP Paribas sliding 3.5% while AXA dropped 2.5%. Luxury and industrials traded in Paris also underperformed, with LVMH, Hermes, and EssilorLuxottica losing more than 2%. In turn, stocks with exposure to AI and computing infrastructure benefited from the new deal between OpenAI and AMD, with ASML and Adyen jumping 2% each.

Aluminum Rises Toward 3-Year High: Aluminum futures rose toward $2,730 per tonne in October, testing the highest in three years amid the outlook of lower supply. Chinese authorities cut their annual output growth target for base metals to an average of 1.5% annually for 2025 and 2026, compared to the 5% target previously. The curb was in line with the China's aluminum output cap of 45 million tons, which is set to be breached this year under current capacity, amid Beijing's anti-involution campaign to slow capacity for manufacturers in an effort to control deflationary pressures. Elsewhere, Alcoa announced it will shut its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to deteriorating bauxite or grades. Quick demand for physical aluminum lifted withdrawal requests in global warehouses, with primary aluminum stocks dropping 55,000 tonnes in September to 415,000, although the levels rebounded from monthly lows.

Lumber Rises to 2-Month High: Lumber futures climbed to about $620 per thousand board feet, near a two-month high, as tightening supply expectations from trade barriers and export constraints combined with stronger pre-winter buying pushed buyers into the market. The US announcement on September 29 of a 10% tariff on softwood lumber and related wooden products gave traders time to front-run potential disruption and bid up near-term contracts. At the same time exporters face rising trade frictions and anti-dumping and countervailing measures in key markets, which have squeezed margins, encouraged some shipment delays and reduced the incentive to run mills at full tilt. These supply-side frictions, paired with seasonal restocking ahead of winter and ongoing construction demand, narrowed available spot supplies and concentrated purchasing into nearby delivery.

Baltic Dry Index Snaps 6-Day Losing Streak: The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, rose 31 points to 1,932 on Monday, snapping a six-day losing streak. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, climbed 104 points to 2,828. In contrast, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000–70,000 tons of coal or grain, fell eight points to 1,654, its lowest level since August 19. Meanwhile, the supramax index declined for a seventh straight session, slipping four points to 1,443.

TSX Pushes to Fresh Highs: The S&P/TSX Composite rose about 0.6% to trade above 30,650 for the first time on Monday as gains in tech and commodity producers led the market higher. Mega cap Shopify jumped more than 4% on renewed analyst upgrades and momentum from its AI integrations, which traders see as bolstering the company’s monetization runway. Elsewhere, major miners Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals, Barrick and Franco-Nevada added roughly 0.8% to 3.2% as gold pressed to fresh highs, supporting commodity sector flows. Meanwhile, investors are now awaiting key labour market data later this week that will help shape expectations for the Bank of Canada’s policy path.

S&P and Nasdaq Rise, AMD Jumps on Partnership with OpenAI: The S&P 500 was up 0.3% and the Nasdaq gained 0.5% on Monday, as AI-related partnerships continued to support investor sentiment. AMD shares soared more than 30% after the company reached a deal for OpenAI to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs over multiple years, with AMD also issuing OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million shares. Tech was by far the top performing sector while real estate lagged. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones reversed early gains to trade nearly 265 points lower, weighed down by declines in Verizon (-3.2%) after the company announced the appointment of former PayPal CEO Dan Schulman as its new chief executive. Mega-cap stocks were mixed, with Microsoft (+1%) and Tesla (+3.4%) rising while Apple and Alphabet traded little changed and Nvidia (-1.2%), Amazon (-0.6%) and Meta (-1.4%) posted losses. Meanwhile, the government shutdown entered its 6th day after Senators failed for the fourth time to pass spending proposals on Friday.

Mexico Consumer Confidence Eases in August: Mexico’s consumer confidence index fell to 46.5 in September 2025, down 0.2 points from August. Households were more pessimistic about the country's current (-0.2 to 41.3) and future (-0.5 to 48.1) economic situation, as well as in households’ ability to make major purchases (-0.8 to 32.4). The indicator for the expected household economic situation remained stable at 58.6, while the current household situation improved slightly (+0.2 to 52.0). On an annual basis, consumer confidence decreased 0.5 points.

Italy 10-Year Yield Hits One-Week High: The yield on Italy’s 10-year BTP rose to 3.58%, its highest level in about a week, following broader increases in European borrowing costs as the political crisis in France weighed on regional markets and added uncertainty over the eurozone’s second-largest economy. Despite the increase, the 10-year BTP yield briefly traded below that on the French 10-year OAT after Sébastien Lecornu resigned, marking the fifth French prime minister since President Macron took office. Italian debt was also pressured by US plans to impose anti-dumping tariffs of up to 92% on 13 Italian pasta producers, including Barilla, La Molisana, and Pastificio Lucio Garofalo, effective January. The move has been condemned by Rome and opposed by the European Commission.

TTF Prices Rise as Demand Picks Up: European natural gas futures surged over 5% to €33.1 per megawatt hour on Monday, marking their biggest daily gain since June 19, as colder weather forecasts raised expectations for higher heating demand. Temperatures in France and Germany are expected to be around 2°C below average from mid-October, while concerns about reduced renewable output add to demand pressure. In addition, Russia launched its largest attacks on Ukraine’s gas network since the start of the war, which could prompt increased European gas exports to Ukraine this winter. Still, Europe has largely replenished gas storage ahead of the heating season, with EU inventories at 82.8% capacity, Italy at 93%, France at 92%, and Germany at 76.3%.

Italy 10-Year Yield Hits One-Week High: The yield on Italy’s 10-year BTP rose to 3.58%, its highest level in about a week, following broader increases in European borrowing costs as the political crisis in France weighed on regional markets and added uncertainty over the eurozone’s second-largest economy. Despite the increase, the 10-year BTP yield briefly traded below that on the French 10-year OAT after Sébastien Lecornu resigned, marking the fifth French prime minister since President Macron took office. Italian debt was also pressured by US plans to impose anti-dumping tariffs of up to 92% on 13 Italian pasta producers, including Barilla, La Molisana, and Pastificio Lucio Garofalo, effective January. The move has been condemned by Rome and opposed by the European Commission.

US Futures Rise, AMD Surges on OpenAI Deal: US stock futures were higher on Monday, with S&P 500 contracts up 0.4%, the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.8%, and Dow Jones futures rising roughly 100 points, as AI-related partnerships continued to support investor sentiment. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares soared more than 22% in premarket trading after the company reached a deal for OpenAI to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs over multiple years, with AMD also issuing OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million shares. Mega-cap stocks were mostly higher ahead of the open, with Microsoft (+0.6%), Apple (+0.3%), Amazon (+0.7%), Alphabet (+0.3%), Meta (+0.3%), and Tesla (+2.2%), while Nvidia (-1.4%) and Broadcom (-2.8%) posted losses. Meanwhile, the government shutdown entered its 6th day after Senators failed for the fourth time to pass spending proposals on Friday. Lawmakers are set to return Monday to vote again on a Democratic funding plan, which includes healthcare priorities, and a GOP-led stopgap bill, though neither is expected to succeed.

Dollar Strengthens Toward August Peak: The dollar index rose to 98 on Monday, approaching August highs, supported by political developments abroad that weighed on both the euro and the yen. The euro weakened after another French Prime Minister resigned, stoking concerns about the government’s ability to manage the country’s large fiscal deficit and debt. In Japan, the yen depreciated sharply following Sanae Takaichi’s election as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, boosting expectations of additional fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, the US federal government shutdown entered its sixth day after US Senators for the fourth time failed to pass spending proposals to reopen the federal government on Friday. Senators are set to return Monday and will once again vote on a Democratic funding plan that includes healthcare priorities, as well as on a GOP-led stopgap bill.

UK Construction Output Falls at Slowest Pace for Three Months: The S&P Global UK Construction PMI rose to 46.2 in September 2025 from 45.5 in August, its highest in three months but still below the 50.0 mark, signaling continued contraction. The moderation was driven by a slower drop in new work and residential activity (46.8), while civil engineering (42.9) remained weakest and commercial construction (46.4) saw a faster decline. Order books fell for the ninth straight month but at the slowest pace in that period, as firms cited weak demand, client caution, and uncertainty ahead of the Autumn Budget. Employment also fell for the ninth month amid hiring freezes, though some firms hired apprentices. Input buying and delivery times improved slightly, but cost pressures persisted, with higher energy, wage, and transport costs. Business confidence remained near record lows, with optimism hinging on potential infrastructure spending, energy projects, and future rate cuts.

Jordan Producer Price Deflation Extends to 7th Month: Producer prices in Jordan dropped by 0.75% year-on-year in August 2025 from a downwardly revised 0.59% decline in the previous month. This marked the seventh consecutive period of producer deflation as manufacturing costs fell (-1.43 % vs -1.11% in July), mainly due to price drops in food products, refined petroleum, paper and paper products and refined. Meanwhile, producer inflation in the mining and quarrying sector advanced by 9.63% from 6.71%. On a monthly basis, producer prices fell by 0.46% in August, reversing a 0.49% rise in the preceding period.

Eurozone Retail Sales Show Modest Recovery in August: Eurozone retail sales edged up 0.1% month-over-month in August 2025, partially recovering from a revised 0.4% decline in July and in line with market expectations. Gains were driven by higher sales of food, drinks, and tobacco (0.3% vs. -1.1% in July) and automotive fuel (0.4% vs. -1.6%), which offset a slight decline in non-food products (-0.1% vs. 0.3%). Among the region’s largest economies, France (0.5% vs. -0.9%) and Spain (0.4% vs. -0.4%) saw growth, while the Netherlands remained flat and Germany (-0.2% vs. -0.5%) and Italy (-0.3% vs. -0.2%) posted declines. On an annual basis, retail trade growth slowed sharply to 1.0% in August, marking the weakest year-on-year increase since July 2024.

UK New Car Sales Surge in September: UK new car sales rose 13.7% year-on-year in September 2025, reaching 312,891 units — the strongest September performance since 2020. Growth was broad-based across all market segments, with fleets posting the largest increase, up 16.9% to 174,336 units. Private consumer demand rose 8.9% to 131,003 units, while business registrations jumped 28.6% to 7,552 units. Strong manufacturer investment and expanded model choices, supported by the new Electric Car Grant, drove a record 72,779 new battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations — the highest monthly volume ever. When combined with hybrids, electrified vehicles now account for the majority of all new registrations. Overall, the market is up 4.2% year-to-date, with BEV share climbing to 22.1%, following the year’s second-biggest sales month.

German 10-Year Bund Yield Rises as Global Political Turmoil Rattles Markets: The yield on Germany’s 10-year Bund rose to 2.73%, tracking increases in European, US, and Japanese government bond yields as political turbulence reverberated through global markets. In Europe, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned on Monday after President Emmanuel Macron appointed a largely unchanged cabinet, sparking criticism for failing to signal political renewal. In the US, the ongoing government shutdown showed no signs of resolution, while in Japan, fiscal expansionist Sanae Takaichi won the ruling party’s leadership election on Saturday, fueling expectations of looser fiscal policy. Finally, yields also found support from Germany’s recent announcement of higher bond issuance for the final quarter of the year, reflecting increased planned spending on infrastructure and defense.

Hang Seng Slips Ahead of Holiday: The Hang Seng fell for the second straight session on Monday, dropping 183 points or 0.7% to finish at 26,958. Trading was subdued due to a cautious mood ahead of a local break in Hong Kong on Tuesday, while mainland markets were still closed for the Golden Week. Sentiment was also weighed by political risks in Europe, following reports of the French Prime Minister's abrupt resignation. The decline was broad-based, led by the tech and consumer sectors, which each dipped around 1%. Notable losers included Galaxy Ent. (-3.1%), Techtronic Inds. (-2.8%), and Trip.com (-2.3%). EV stocks also retreated sharply, with Li Auto (-3.4%), Geely Auto (-2.1%), and XPeng (-1.8%) all declining. Capping the downside was a further growth in Hong Kong's private sector activity, albeit at a moderating pace. Bucking the negative trend, gold miners rallied strongly as bullion prices hit a record high. Shandong Gold Mining (5.2%), Zijin Gold Intl. (7.3%), and Zhaojin Mining (3.2%) all posted strong gains.

Agricultural Commodities Updates: Rice Gains by 0.91%: Top commodity gainers are Rice (0.91%). Biggest losers are Palm Oil (-0.54%).

Metals Commodities Updates: Silver Rises by 1.54%: Top commodity gainers are Silver (1.54%) and Gold (1.50%).

France 10-Year Bond Yield Rises after PM Lecornu Resigns: The yield on France’s 10-year government bond rose nearly 8 bps to 3.587% on Monday, nearing its highest level since 2011, as renewed political turmoil weighed on sentiment. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned just weeks after taking office and a day after President Macron unveiled a new government that drew broad criticism. Before stepping down, Lecornu had appointed former industry minister Roland Lescure as finance minister, while most senior members of ousted premier François Bayrou’s cabinet were reinstated. Opposition parties warned that the new government could face an early challenge if it fails to break from Macron’s previous policy direction. The resignation has once again plunged France into political turmoil, following two successive governments that also failed to pass the budget through a deeply divided parliament. The upcoming fiscal plan is expected to include unpopular spending cuts and tax increases aimed at curbing the euro area’s largest budget deficit.

CAC 40 Falls as French PM Lecornu Resigns Amid Political Uncertainty: The Paris CAC 40 tumbled 2.1% at around 7,908, reversing modest gains from the previous session amid persistent political risks after French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu submitted his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron, which was accepted. Macron had unveiled a new cabinet on Sunday, led by Lecornu, while Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure warned that the Socialists would vote against the government if it failed to break with the president’s past policies. Bank shares led losses, with Société Générale down 5.3%, Crédit Agricole down 4.0%, and BNP Paribas down 4.2%, while energy shares underperformed, with Veolia falling 3.6% and ENGIE down 3.1%. Elsewhere, Edenred slipped 1.7% after announcing a new share buyback mandate of up to €25 million, valid through the end of 2025.

Sterling Weakens on Monday: The British pound fell to $1.344 on Monday, reversing part of last week’s 0.6% rally, as the dollar regained strength and renewed political turmoil in France unsettled European markets. The resignation of French Prime Minister Lecornu deepened the country’s crisis, with President Macron struggling to form a government capable of passing a deficit-cutting budget or maintaining a stable majority in parliament. At the same time, Japan’s surprise election of pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi as prime minister sparked expectations of higher government spending, lifting global yields and boosting the dollar. In the US, the prolonged federal government shutdown and uncertainty around the economic outlook reinforced market bets on further Fed rate cuts this year. On the monetary policy front, the Bank of England has kept rates on hold, with investors not expecting cuts until 2026 as inflation remains stubbornly high, driven by persistent food, energy, and housing costs.

Euro Falls to Near Two-Week Low as French PM Steps Down: The euro fell more than 0.5% on Monday, slipping below $1.167 — its weakest level since September 25 — after France’s newly appointed prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, resigned. The move followed President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to retain a largely unchanged cabinet, which drew swift criticism from opposition parties. Lecornu, who took office less than a month ago, faced the daunting challenge of steering a budget through a deeply divided parliament. The upcoming fiscal plan is expected to include unpopular spending cuts and tax hikes aimed at curbing France’s deficit — the largest in the euro area — further fueling political tension and investor concern.

Energy Commodities Updates: Natural gas Gains by 4.50%: Top commodity gainers are Natural gas (4.50%), Natural Gas UK GBP (3.72%), Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF (3.56%), Crude Oil WTI (1.21%) and Brent Crude Oil (1.17%).

Italian Construction PMI Nears Stabilization in September: The HCOB Italy Construction PMI rose to 49.8 in September 2025 from August’s one-year low of 47.7, signaling the mildest decline in activity in three months and hinting that the sector is moving closer to stabilization. New orders increased for the first time in three months, supported by stronger customer interest and public tender wins, while housing activity returned to modest growth. Also, employment and purchasing activity both rose slightly, extending a year-long hiring streak, though firms remained cautious about subcontractor use. On prices, cost pressures eased markedly, with input price inflation falling to its lowest level in over five years, offering some relief to builders. However, business confidence weakened to a 13-month low amid uncertainty over tax bonuses. Sub-sector trends were mixed, with civil engineering seeing the steepest decline and commercial construction contracting at a softer pace, suggesting the worst of the recent downturn may be easing.

Spain Industrial Production Rises the Most Since 2023: Industrial production in Spain rose 3.4% year-on-year in August 2025, marking the strongest annual increase since March 2023 and following an upwardly revised 2.7% gain in July. Output grew the most in capital goods (4.9%), non-durable consumer goods (4.4%), and energy (3.7%), while production of intermediate goods inched up 0.4%. In contrast, durable consumer goods (-1.1%) registered the only annual decline. Regionally, the sharpest increases were seen in Andalusia (8.4%) and Castile and León (3.5%). On a monthly basis, however, Spain’s industrial production slipped 0.1% compared with July.

FTSE 100 Falters at Start of the Week: The FTSE 100 was little changed on Monday after hitting record highs last week, as French political uncertainty weighs on European markets. Mondi was the worst performer, plunging over 15% after warning of continued “challenging” trading in Q3. The paper and packaging group cited weak demand, lower paper prices, and declining EBITDA across both its corrugated and flexible packaging units. In contrast, BP and Shell rose 2.1% and 1.3%, respectively, after OPEC+ agreed to a modest 137,000 barrels-per-day production increase—well below the feared 500,000 hike—lifting crude prices. Gold miners also benefited as Fresnillo climbed 1% and Endeavour gained 2.7%, with gold hitting a new record above $3,900 per ounce amid the ongoing US government shutdown and rising Fed rate cut bets. Meanwhile, lender Shawbrook confirmed plans to float on the London Stock Exchange.

Switzerland Jobless Rate Unchanged at 2.8%: Switzerland’s non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was steady at 2.8% in September 2025, remaining at its highest level since April. The number of unemployed persons increased by 1.1 thousand from a month earlier to 133.2 thousand. The youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, remained at 3.2%, its highest level since March 2021, with the number of young unemployed rising by only 0.2 thousand to 13.9 thousand. Meanwhile, the number of reported job vacancies dropped by 0.5 thousand to 37.4 thousand. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.0% in September from 2.9% in the previous month.

Platinum Hits Near 13-Year High: Platinum rose above $1,620 per ounce on Monday, its highest level since February 2013, supported by safe-haven demand and ongoing supply constraints. Investors turned to precious metals amid the continuing US government shutdown and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets are now nearly fully pricing in a quarter-point cut this month and another in December. Demand from jewelry and investors also remains strong, though the shift toward electric vehicles is expected to curb the need for automotive catalytic converters. On the supply side, platinum production has fallen about 16% from its 2021 peak due to higher operating costs, underinvestment, and declining ore grades. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expects persistent annual supply deficits through 2029, averaging roughly 620,000 ounces, or about 8% of global demand.

Denmark Manufacturing Output Falls in August: Denmark’s manufacturing production decreased by 2.9% month-on-month in August 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 1.4% gain in the previous month. The sharpest decline was recorded in the pharmaceutical industry (-8.9% vs 3.7%), followed by machinery (-4.8% vs 4.6%), electronic components (-1.7% vs 3.3%), food, beverages, and tobacco (-0.9% vs 1.6%), furniture and other manufacturing (-0.8% vs -0.7%), and textiles and leather (-0.4% vs -1.1%). In contrast, output rebounded strongly for wood and paper products and printing (12.6% vs -6.1%), basic metals and fabricated metal products (9.7% vs -3.3%), electrical equipment (5.3% vs -0.5%), and transport equipment (4.9% vs -2.2%). On a non-seasonally adjusted yearly basis, manufacturing output fell by 7% in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline, following a downwardly revised 6.3% drop in July.

Hungary Retail Sales Growth Rises in August: Retail sales in Hungary rose by 2.4% year-on-year in August 2025, following a 1.7% growth in the previous month. The improvement was driven largely by higher sales growth in non-food products (4.9% vs 2.9% in July), while trade remained unchanged for food, beverages, and tobacco at 2.3%. At the same time, sales in automotive fuel grew by 2.2%, rebounding from a 2.4% decline in July. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales increased by 0.8% in August, recovering from a 0.5% drop in the preceding period. Considering January to August, retail sales were 2.8% higher compared to the same period a year earlier.

European Stocks Poised for Flat Open: European equity markets were set to open little changed on Monday after regional indexes hit record highs last week, driven by strength in pharmaceutical and technology shares. Investors awaited fresh economic releases, including the latest Eurozone construction PMI and retail sales data. On the political front, French Prime Minister Sebastian Lecornu on Sunday appointed Roland Lescure, a close ally of President Emmanuel Macron, as finance minister in a new government that opposition parties warned could face a swift challenge if it fails to depart from Macron’s previous policies. In premarket trade, Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 futures hovered near the flatline.

South Korean Won Hits 20-week Low: The South Korean Won touched 1415.00 against the USD, the lowest since May 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar South Korean Won gained 1.92%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 5.1%.

India Stocks Rise to 2-Week High: The BSE Sensex rose 0.7% to close at 81,790 on Monday, its third consecutive gain and hitting its highest level since September 24th, supported by broad-based sectoral advances. Tech shares outperformed, tracking the positive momentum for US counterparts amid the continued bet on AI demand, lastly supported by a fresh partnership between OpenAI and AMD. TCS soared by 3% in the session. while Tech Mahindra and Infosys jumped 2.8% and 2%, respectively. On the data front, final figures showed that India’s private sector grew at the slowest pace in three months in September, amid a moderation in output growth across both manufacturing and services.

Thailand Rolls Out Plan to Boost Capital Market Appeal: Thailand has launched the “Thai Capital Market Attractiveness Initiative,” aimed at boosting investor confidence and positioning the country as a regional fundraising hub. Announced jointly by the finance ministry, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Stock Exchange of Thailand, and industry bodies, the plan seeks to simplify stock-listing procedures, streamline IPO and foreign listing processes, and attract high-quality companies to reverse capital outflows. Thailand’s benchmark index has fallen over 7% this year, the weakest among major Asian markets, as foreign investors pulled out around USD 2.9 billion. SEC Secretary-General Pornanong Budsaratragoon said the initiative reflects a coordinated government–private sector effort to strengthen structural competitiveness and support long-term growth. The program’s next phase will extend to bond markets, investment units, and digital finance.

Estonia Industrial Output Growth Accelerates in Aug: Industrial production in Estonia increased by 1% year-on-year in August 2025, accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.6% gain in the previous month. Output rebounded for mining and quarrying (0.7% vs -8.7% in June), primarily due to the mining of oil shale and extraction of crude petroleum, extraction of peat and other mining and quarrying, and mining support service activities. Additionally, output declined at a softer pace for electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply (-20.7% vs -29.1%). On the other hand, output moderated for manufacturing (2.5% vs 3.4%), mainly dragged down by the manufacture of computers and peripheral equipment, manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, and manufacture of other transport equipment. On a monthly basis, industrial activity grew by 1.5% in August, recovering from an upwardly revised 5.5% drop in the prior month.

NZX 50 Halts Five-Day Winning Streak: New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% to close at 13,489 on Monday, ending a five-day winning streak, as most sectors traded in the red. Traders took a cautious stance ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision later this week. Markets widely anticipate another rate cut, but attention is on its size amid weak economic growth and political pressures, ahead of the new governor’s appointment in December. The benchmark index also reflected global weakness, driven by concerns over a potential US government shutdown after White House adviser Kevin Hassett warned that layoffs could occur if funding negotiations stall. Among individual stocks, the top laggards included Freightways Group (-2.6%), Serko (-2.6%), Delegat Group (-2.1%), Colonial Motor (-1.9%), Hallenstein Glasson Holdings (-1.8%), and Skellerup Holdings (-1.7%).

US Natgas Prices Rebound: US natural gas futures rose to around $3.35/MMBtu, snapping a two-day decline, supported by carryover sentiment from last week’s EIA storage report. The broader energy commodities also advanced following OPEC+’s modest output hike, providing additional market optimism. Last week’s EIA data showed a smaller-than-expected storage build of 53 bcf for the week ending September 26—well below forecasts and the five-year average of 85 bcf. Total inventories stood at 3.561 tcf, slightly above last year’s level and about 5% higher than the seasonal norm. Output in the Lower 48 also eased in September from record highs, while LNG exports hit a fresh peak. Prices may also gain support from forecasts for a sharp cooldown heading into mid-October, which are expected to boost heating demand, although early October warmth has briefly capped consumption.

Palm Oil Extends Losses to Start the Week: Malaysian palm oil futures fell for the second straight session, hovering below MYR 4,450 per tonne, weighed by weaker soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade. Trading activity also remained subdued as the Dalian Commodity Exchange stayed closed for China’s Golden Week holiday until Oct. 8. Sentiment weakened further after reports showed palm oil imports from top buyer India dropped 15.9% in September to 833,000 metric tons, the lowest since May, with purchases likely to ease further to around 600,000 tons in October as festive demand peaks mid-month. Adding to headwinds, uncertainty grew as the U.S. government shutdown dragged into its second week, with White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warning that layoffs could begin if talks remain stalled. Still, losses were capped by stronger exports, as cargo surveyors noted Malaysia’s September shipments rose 7.3–9.6% from August. Reuters also projected Malaysia’s palm oil inventories fell 2.5% to 2.15 million tons last month.

Heating Oil Rises Over 1%: Heating oil futures in the US rose over 1% to around $2.26 per gallon, rebounding from a six-week low after OPEC+ opted for a modest output increase. Following a virtual meeting on Sunday, the group said it would raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, matching October’s hike. It cited a stable global outlook and healthy market fundamentals but noted that adjustments could be paused or reversed if conditions shift. Still, most analysts expect a supply glut in late 2025 and into 2026 amid slowing demand and rising US output. Reinforcing those concerns, EIA data showed US distillate inventories rose by 0.58 million barrels last week, defying forecasts for a 1 million-barrel draw. Heating oil stocks increased by nearly 113 thousand barrels, while refinery runs fell by 308 thousand barrels per day, with utilization at 91.4%, pointing to softer demand or exports for middle distillates.

Gasoline Tracks Crude Oil Higher: US gasoline futures rose more than 1% to $1.88 per gallon on Monday, tracking crude oil higher after OPEC+ agreed to a smaller-than-expected production increase. The group said on Sunday it would raise output in November by 137,000 bpd, the same modest hike as in October, amid persistent worries over a looming supply glut. Additionally, Russia last week extended its gasoline export ban until the end of the year and imposed a partial ban on diesel exports after Ukrainian drone strikes hit its oil refineries. Despite Monday’s gains, gasoline prices remain weak and is not far from an over one-year low touched on Friday, weighed down by a gloomy global economic outlook and its potential drag on fuel demand. The latest EIA data showed that product supplied for motor gasoline fell by 441 thousand barrels from the previous week to 8.5 million for the period ending September 26, signaling softer consumption.

Silver Hits 14-½-Year High: Silver climbed above $48.3 per ounce on Monday, its highest level since April 2011, as the ongoing US government shutdown and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Lawmakers once again failed to secure a funding deal, halting key federal programs and delaying major data releases, including September’s jobs report originally scheduled for Friday. Markets are now nearly fully pricing in a quarter-point Fed rate cut this month and another in December. Investors also await remarks from Fed Governor Stephen Miran on Wednesday and Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday for additional policy cues. Beyond macro factors, silver drew support from tightening supply conditions, with the Silver Institute projecting a global market deficit for a fifth consecutive year in 2025.

US 10-Year Yield Edges Higher: The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note climbed to around 4.14% on Monday, extending gains from the prior session as investors evaluated the economic fallout from the ongoing government shutdown after lawmakers again failed to reach a funding deal. The closure has suspended key federal operations and delayed major economic data releases, including September’s jobs report originally scheduled for Friday. On the policy front, recent data reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets nearly fully pricing in a quarter-point cut this month and another in December. Traders now await fresh commentary from central bank officials this week for further direction, including remarks from Fed Governor Stephen Miran on Wednesday and Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.

Japan 10-Year Yield Climbs Despite Takaichi Win: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 1.68% on Monday, hitting its highest levels since 2008, even after a ruling party vote paved the way for fiscal dove and pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s next prime minister. Among five contenders in the Liberal Democratic Party race to replace hawkish Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Takaichi was seen as the most expansionary, closely aligned with the late Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” policies. Following her win, Takaichi emphasized close coordination between the government and the central bank to achieve demand-driven inflation supported by stronger wages and corporate earnings. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated Friday that rate hikes will resume if growth and inflation progress as expected, noting that US tariffs are pressuring exporters’ profits, particularly in autos, though broader effects on investment, employment, and wages remain limited.

Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High: Bitcoin rallied to nearly $126,000 in early October, setting a new all-time high as global economic uncertainty and the ongoing US government shutdown fueled safe-haven demand for the leading crypto asset. The shutdown has suspended key federal operations and delayed major data releases, including September’s jobs report originally due Friday. Expectations for further US Federal Reserve rate cuts also bolstered sentiment, with markets nearly fully pricing in a quarter-point cut this month and another in December. Additional momentum came from strong inflows into US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, which recorded a total net inflow of $3.25 billion last week.

Dollar Gains as Govt Shutdown Continues: The dollar index climbed above 98 on Monday, recovering last week’s losses as investors weighed the economic fallout from the ongoing government shutdown after lawmakers again failed to strike a funding deal. The closure has suspended key federal programs and delayed major data releases, including September’s jobs report originally scheduled for Friday. On the policy front, recent data reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets nearly fully pricing in a quarter-point cut this month and another in December. Traders now await fresh signals from central bank officials this week, including remarks from Fed Governor Stephen Miran on Wednesday and Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. The dollar saw its strongest gains against the yen, advancing over 1% after a ruling party vote positioned fiscal dove and pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi to become Japan’s next prime minister.

Gold Hits Record Above $3900 as US Shutdown Continues: Gold prices surged past $3,900 per ounce to a record high on Monday, driven by investors seeking the safe-haven asset amid growing worries over a prolonged US government shutdown. The shutdown was extended into this week after the Senate on Friday failed to advance competing plans to extend federal funding. This has delayed key economic releases, including September’s non-farm payrolls report, leaving investors to rely on alternative indicators that signal a weakening labor market and reinforce expectations of an imminent rate cut. Markets are now pricing in about a 95% probability of a 25bps cut in October and an 84% chance of a similar move in December. Even without fresh data, traders will closely monitor remarks from Federal Reserve officials this week for clues on the US central bank’s rate-cut path. So far this year, bullion has surged almost 50%, spurred by heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of further rate cuts, central bank buying, and ETF inflows.

Tunisia Inflation Rate Lowest Since 2021: Tunisia's annual inflation rate slowed to 5.0% in September 2025, the lowest since May 2021, down from 5.2% in August. The slowdown was mainly driven by softer price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.7% vs. 5.9% in August), marking the slowest pace since April 2021. Prices also moderated for recreation and culture (4.6% vs. 5.4%), restaurant, café, and hotel services (10.1% vs. 10.6%), transport services (3.1% vs. 3.6%), and furnishings and household equipment (4.9% vs. 5.0%). Meanwhile, inflation was steady for housing (at 3.4%) and clothing & footwear (at 8.9%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.6% in September, accelerating from a 0.3% increase in August and marking the fastest pace in five months.

Brent Rises Almost 2% After OPEC+ Modest Output Hike: Brent crude oil futures rose almost 2% to $65.7 per barrel on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to a modest increase in production, easing market fears of a larger supply boost. The producer group agreed on Sunday to raise production by 137,000 bpd in November, matching October's increase, with markets seeing it as a cautious move amid persistent worries about oversupply. OPEC+ described the latest decision as a response to a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, noting that output adjustments may be paused or reversed if conditions change. By the end of September, OPEC+ had already rolled back a 2.2 million bpd cut—a year ahead of schedule—and was in the process of unwinding an additional 1.65 million bpd cut. However, price gains were limited as concerns grew that the ongoing US government shutdown could weigh on economic growth and, in turn, dampen energy demand.

Oil Rises Almost 2% After OPEC+ Modest Output Hike: WTI crude oil futures rose almost 2% to $61.9 per barrel on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to a modest increase in production, easing market fears of a larger supply boost. The producer group agreed on Sunday to raise production by 137,000 bpd in November, matching October's increase, with markets seeing it as a cautious move amid persistent worries about oversupply. OPEC+ described the latest decision as a response to a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, noting that output adjustments may be paused or reversed if conditions change. By the end of September, OPEC+ had already rolled back a 2.2 million bpd cut—a year ahead of schedule—and was in the process of unwinding an additional 1.65 million bpd cut. However, price gains were limited as concerns grew that the ongoing US government shutdown could weigh on economic growth and, in turn, dampen energy demand.

US Future Rise Despite Ongoing Shutdown: US stock futures rose on Monday as investors looked past concerns over the ongoing government shutdown after lawmakers again failed to reach a funding deal. The closure has suspended key federal programs and delayed major economic reports, including September’s jobs data originally due Friday. Last week, the Dow gained 1.1%, the S&P 500 added 1.09%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.32%, with all three indexes setting fresh record highs. Technology and semiconductor stocks led the rally as OpenAI’s share sale boosted its valuation to a record $500 billion, fueling renewed optimism around artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, recent data strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets nearly fully pricing in a quarter-point cut this month and another in December. Investors now await fresh comments from central bank officials this week for policy direction.

Qatar Non-Oil Private Sector Growth Slows in September: Qatar’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 51.5 in September 2025, down from August's 51.9, indicating a softer pace of non-energy private sector growth. The index was below the long-run average since 2017 (52.2). The moderation in growth was driven by a decrease in new orders and shorter suppliers' delivery times. Output grew for the fourth time in the past six months. However, the rate of growth was modest, as sub-sector data showed a renewed decline in construction activity. Employment increased for the tenth consecutive month, while backlogs of work rose at the slowest rate in the current sequence. Regarding prices, input cost inflation accelerated, while output price inflation rose to a four-month high, with charges for goods and services increasing for the first time since July 2024. Lastly, business sentiment weakened but remained only slightly below the survey's long-run trend.

Iran Moves Ahead with Currency Redenomination Plan: Iran’s parliament has approved a long-discussed plan to slash four zeros from the national currency, the rial, in an effort to simplify transactions after years of high inflation. State media reported Sunday that lawmakers resolved objections from the Guardian Council to pass the bill, which has been under debate for several years. “The currency remains the rial and changes won’t be overnight,” said Shamsoldin Hossein, head of parliament’s economic commission. He explained that the central bank will have up to two years to prepare, followed by a three-year transition period when both old and new denominations will circulate. Hossein added that persistent inflation had rendered existing banknotes increasingly impractical for daily use.

UK Reveals Plans to Speed Up Home-Buying Process: The UK government announced plans on Sunday to streamline the home-buying process in a bid to stimulate the property market. Proposed changes include publishing search and survey information before listing properties, potentially cutting the average transaction time by four weeks from the current five-month timeline. The introduction of binding contracts for buyers and sellers is also being considered, which could halve the number of failed transactions. Housing remains a key priority, with a target of 1.5 million new homes to be built over the current five-year parliamentary term. A UK-wide consultation will be launched to gather feedback, though Scotland’s distinct legal framework for property transactions will remain unaffected.

OPEC+ Sticks to Modest Output Increase for November: OPEC and its allies on Sunday agreed to a modest oil output increase, maintaining their cautious approach to avoid a price slump while securing more revenue. Eight OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia, will raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, matching October’s increase, the group announced after an online meeting. The move continues the cartel’s gradual unwinding of earlier production curbs totaling about 1.65 million barrels per day introduced in 2023. A previous layer of cuts, amounting to 2.2 million barrels per day, was already fully reversed in September — a year ahead of schedule.