News

Agricultural Commodities Updates: Oat Gains by 2.96%: Top commodity gainers are Oat (2.96%), Lumber (1.42%) and Rice (1.26%). Biggest losers are Orange Juice (-2.15%) and Coffee (-1.73%).

Metals Commodities Updates: Steel Rebar Rises by 3.00%: Top commodity gainers are Steel Rebar (3%), Iron Ore CNY (1.92%) and Copper (1.66%). Biggest losers are Gold (-1.73%).

Energy Commodities Updates: Methanol Tumbles by 5.37%: Top commodity losers are Methanol (-5.37%), Natural gas (-2.89%), Ethanol (-2.25%), Crude Oil WTI (-1.71%) and Brent Crude Oil (-1.58%).

TSX Retreats from Recent Highs: The S&P/TSX Composite dropped 0.8% to 30,270 on Thursday, with metal miners and technology stocks giving up recent gains as investors awaited Friday’s domestic employment report for insights into the country’s economic health. The energy and healthcare sectors rose, helped by cannabis company Curaleaf Holdings, which jumped 2.4% after receiving a “buy” rating from Canaccord Genuity. Materials and financial stocks declined, with the former down 0.5% amid a decline in gold prices slipping below $4,000. Among stocks, the biggest laggards were Capstone Copper, IAMGOLD Corporatin, B2Gold, Franco-Nevada Corporation and Topaz Energy, with losses between 3.2% and 5.5%. The TSX has recently reached several all-time highs, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, economic concerns, and expectations of US interest rate cuts.

S&P 500, Nasdaq Pull Back from Record Highs: US stocks pulled back on Thursday as investors paused to digest optimism around AI, interest-rate cuts, and the ongoing government shutdown. The S&P 500 lost 0.3%, the Nasdaq 100 down 0.1%, retreating from record highs reached in the prior session, and the Dow Jones fell 243 points. Market sentiments fell due to the shutdown, which has delayed key economic data, shifting focus to upcoming third-quarter earnings for insights into the economy and the AI-driven rally. Apple, Alphabet, Tesla, and Walmart all lost more than 0.7%, while PepsiCo rose 4.2% after stronger-than-expected revenue and earnings. Delta Air Lines jumped 4.3% on upbeat forecasts, Nvidia gained 1.8% as the US approved billions in chip exports to the UAE, and Costco climbed 3.1% on solid September sales. Investors are also eyeing the Federal Reserve, with markets pricing in a high likelihood of 25-basis-point rate cuts in October and December amid labor market concerns.

DAX Sets New High: Germany’s DAX finished Thursday at 24,611, posting a marginal gain while sustaining a fresh record high, as traders paused to digest recent peaks on both sides of the Atlantic. Expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and positive geopolitical developments in the Middle East were tempered by ongoing political uncertainty in France. On the corporate front, Heidelberg Materials led the gains, rising nearly 3%, followed by Bayer (+2.8%) after reporting encouraging 36-month Phase I data for its Parkinson’s cell therapy bemdaneprocel. Other top performers included Deutsche Telekom (+1.4%), Fresenius SE & Co (+1.4%) and Siemens Energy (+1.3%). On the opposite side, Zalando and Hannover Ruck posted the biggest declines, shedding 3.1% and 2.2%, respectively.

US 30-Year Mortgage Rates Move Down: The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.30% as of October 9, 2025, down from 6.34% in the previous week, according to a survey of lenders by mortgage giant Freddie Mac. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.53%, below 5.55% last week. “Mortgage rates decreased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Over the last few weeks, mortgage rates have settled in at their lowest level in about a year. There is growing evidence that homebuyers are digesting these lower rates and gradually are willing to move forward with buying a home, which is boosting purchase activity.”

UK Stocks End on Negative Note: The FTSE 100 closed about 0.4% lower at 9,509 on Thursday, retreating from an intraday record of 9,565.5, pressured by multiple ex-dividend stocks and sharp declines in HSBC and Lloyds. WPP, Barratt Redrow, Tesco, Kingfisher, Taylor Wimpey and Primary Health Properties all fell as they traded without entitlement to the dividend. HSBC slid 5.4%, dragging down the banking sector, after revealing plans to take its Hong Kong-listed unit Hang Seng Bank private and pause share buybacks for three quarters to conserve capital. Lloyds lost 3.3% after the lender warned that it might need to put aside more money than it has already done to pay its share of the motor finance compensation scheme. On the upside, BA and Iberia owner IAG soared to the top of the index, rising 3.2%, following strong quarterly results and a positive outlook from Delta Airlines. Base metal miners also performed well, with Anglo American gaining over 2% on the back of higher copper prices.

European Stocks Slip from Records: European stocks fell from record levels on Thursday, with the Stoxx 50 and the Stoxx 600 down by about 0.4%. European banks slipped more than 1%, dragged lower by HSBC, whose shares dropped 4.5% after announcing a privatization bid for its 63%-owned Hong Kong subsidiary, Hang Seng Bank. Luxury and consumer goods stocks also suffered: Ferrari tumbled 15% after lowering full-year and 2030 guidance and cutting EV sales targets, while LVMH, Hermès, and L’Oréal fell 2.6%, 2.2%, and 1.7%, respectively. Danish pharma giant Novo Nordisk dropped 1.1% after announcing plans to acquire US biotech Akero Therapeutics for $54 per share, valuing it at $4.7 billion, with an additional potential $6 per share contingent value right. Attention today was focused on France as President Macron pledged to appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours after Sebastien Lecornu’s resignation, amid calls to avoid another centrist ally.

US Natgas Prices Fall after EIA Report: US natural gas futures fell to around $3.3/MMBtu on October 7, retreating from an 11-week high after a larger-than-expected storage build. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) injection into storage for the week ended October 3, above the 77-bcf forecast and slightly higher than last year’s 78 bcf, though below the five-year average of 94 bcf. Meanwhile, output in the Lower 48 states eased to 106.3 bcfd so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September. Still, record production earlier this year allowed firms to inject more gas than usual, leaving storage about 5% above normal for this time of year. LNG exports averaged 16.1 bcfd in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast mostly near-normal weather through October 24.

Russia’s Budget Balance Swings to Deficit in Jan-Sept: The Russian Federal Government posted a budget gap of RUB 3.8 trillion in the January-September period of 2025, or 1.7% of the GDP, compared to a surplus of RUB 0.2 trillion during the same period in 2024, according to preliminary data from the Finance Ministry. The figure was below the government’s new 2025 target of 2.6% of GDP, raised from 1.7% in draft budget documents submitted to parliament last month. Total government spending jumped 19.5% year-on-year to RUB 30.7 trillion, while revenues increased at a much slower 2.5% to RUB 26.9 trillion.

US Stocks Rally Stalls: US stocks gave back early gains on Thursday, with the three major averages slipping nearly 0.3% as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq paused after hitting record highs at the open. Consumer discretionary and industrials were the weakest-performing sectors, while consumer staples outperformed. Investors are preparing for the upcoming third-quarter earnings season. Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla and Walmart were all losing more than 1%. On the other hand, PepsiCo gained 2.5% after posting better-than-expected revenue and earnings, while Delta Air Lines jumped more than 5% after reporting upbeat forecasts for the end of 2025. Nvidia added 2.4% as the US approved several billion $ worth of its chip exports to the UAE and Costco Wholesale increased 2.9% after reporting better-than-expected sales for September. Meanwhile, the ongoing government shutdown continues to delay the release of key economic data. Even so, traders remain confident that the Fed will cut rates twice more this year.

Baltic Dry Index Halts 3-Day Winning Run: The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, halted its three-day winning streak on Thursday, falling 40 points to a near one-week low of 1,923 points, mainly pressured by the bigger-size segment. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, dropped 138 points to 2,786 points, snapping its four-day winning streak; and the supramax index extended losses for a 10th day, easing 8 points to 1,403 points. Conversely, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose 35 points to an over one-week high of 1,730 points. 

Treasury Yields Tick Up with Investors Awaiting Fresh Drivers: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 4.14% on Thursday, rising slightly after modest declines over the previous two sessions. Traders remained cautious, awaiting fresh catalysts at a time when the release of federal economic data is suspended due to the government shutdown, and the latest FOMC minutes offered little to shift expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path this year. Markets continue to price in two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed this year, after the minutes indicated policymakers are weighing downside risks to employment against persistent inflation pressures. On Wednesday, the Senate once again rejected funding proposals from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers that could have ended the shutdown. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department’s auction of 10-year notes showed tepid demand.

Silver Hits Record High: Spot silver surged over 4% to an all-time high of $51 an ounce, surpassing its previous peak recorded during the Hunt brothers’ squeeze in 1980, as strong safe-haven demand met tight supply. The precious metal has risen over 70% this year, outperforming gold, driven by concerns over US fiscal risks, the potential for lower interest rates, questions around Federal Reserve independence, and unsustainable global deficit and debt levels. A shortage of freely available silver in the London market has further supported prices. With applications ranging from investment to industrial uses—such as solar panels and wind turbines—silver demand is projected to exceed supply for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.

Sensex Ends Higher on Thursday: India's BSE Sensex closed about 0.5% up at 82,172 on Thursday, rebounding from yesterday’s loss as investors tracked the earnings season and signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. Metal stocks outperformed, with Tata Steel rising more than 2% on a global surge in base metal prices due to supply concerns from major mines. IT shares also extended gains for a second day, boosted by anticipation of Tata Consultancy Services’ (TCS) quarterly earnings today—the first major report of the Q2 season. Expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate cuts added to the positive sentiment. Healthcare stocks and pharma firms, including Sun Pharma, climbed over 1% after the Trump administration clarified it has no plans to impose tariffs on imported generic drugs. On the flip side, Axis Bank was the biggest loser, down over 1%, followed by Titan Company (-0.4%), HDFC Bank (-0.4%)and Maruti Suzuki (-0.2%).

US Futures Waver: US stock futures hovered near the flatline on Thursday, following fresh record closes for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the previous session. Investors are gearing up for the Q3 earnings season, which will gain momentum next week as major banks report quarterly results. In premarket trading, PepsiCo edged up 0.2% after posting better-than-expected revenue and earnings, while Delta Air Lines jumped more than 5% after reporting upbeat forecasts for the end of 2025. AMD climbed 1.5%, extending this week’s strong rally after announcing a deal with OpenAI, and Nvidia gained 1.3% as the US approved several billion $ worth of its chip exports to the UAE. Meanwhile, the ongoing government shutdown continues to delay the release of key economic data. Even so, traders remain confident that the Fed will cut rates twice more this year, after minutes from the latest meeting indicated policymakers are balancing downside risks to employment against persistent inflation pressures.

Ireland Industrial Output at 3-Month High: Industrial production in Ireland surged by 25% year-on-year in August 2025, accelerating sharply from an upwardly revised 10.5% gain in the previous month. The latest figure marked the strongest growth since May, as output increased at a much faster pace for both manufacturing industries (24.4% vs 8.6% in July) and transportable goods (25.8% vs 10.6%). On the other hand, production moderated for electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply (5.1% vs 13.1%). On a monthly basis, industrial production climbed to a three-month high of 9.8% in August, from 0.5% in the previous month.

Ireland Inflation Hits 18-Month High: The annual inflation rate in Ireland rose to 2.7% in September 2025 from 2% in the previous month. This marked the highest level since March 2024, driven by a rebound in transport costs (1.2% vs -2.3% in August) and higher prices for clothing and footwear (3.7% vs 3.4%), recreation and culture (2.7% vs 2%), restaurants and hotels (3% vs 2.6%), and miscellaneous goods and services (3.7% vs 1.9%). In contrast, inflation eased for food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.7% vs 5.1%), housing and utilities (2.3% vs 2.4%), and health (2.5% vs 2.6%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased by 0.2%, reversing a 0.4% increase in August. Core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, climbed to 2.8% in September, the highest since August 2024, from 2.1% in the prior month.

Sterling Falls to 9-Week Low: The British pound fell to $1.33, a nine-week low, pressured by a stronger dollar and concerns ahead of the UK’s November budget. Traders are wary that potential tax hikes to meet fiscal targets could weigh on the already fragile economy and the currency. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who delivers her budget on November 26, is expected to focus on fiscal discipline, possibly through higher taxes — echoing her previous move that raised £25 billion in employer social contributions. Analysts see modest UK growth for the rest of 2025, with inflation rising to 4%, double the BoE’s target. Markets are not expecting the next BoE rate cut until April next year, with a total of two reductions by end 2026. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill urged “conservative central banking,” stressing the need to prioritize inflation control over growth interventions, countering calls for a government–BoE partnership to revive investment.

Paris CAC 40 Gains as Election Risk Eases: The Paris CAC 40 rose 0.1% to around 8,060 on Thursday, extending gains for a second consecutive session, as markets welcomed President Macron pledge to appoint a new prime minister on Friday and avoid early elections. Airbus climbed 0.2% after delivering 73 commercial aircraft in September, bringing year-to-date deliveries to 507 and moving closer to its 2025 target of 820 planes. The luxury goods sector posted broad gains: Kering rose 1.5%, LVMH added 0.5%, and Hermès advanced 0.4%. By contrast, Michelin tumbled 4.8%, leading the day’s decliners, after holding a pre-close call on its third-quarter results and announcing that Q3 2025 sales figures will be released on October 22.

Oil Fluctuates as Israel, Hamas Reach Hostage Deal: Brent crude oil futures hovered above $66 per barrel on Thursday, swinging between small gains and losses as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of a peace plan, including the release of hostages held in Gaza, a major breakthrough in US- and Qatari-mediated talks aimed at ending the two-year conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would convene the government to approve the ceasefire deal, while Trump noted he may soon visit Israel. On the supply side, US crude inventories rose for a second consecutive week but remained close to seasonal lows, according to EIA data. Stockpiles at the Cushing hub and refined product inventories declined, while total petroleum products supplied, a measure of demand, climbed to 21.99 million barrels per day, the highest since December 2022.

STOXX 50 Falls from Record; HSBC Pressure Hits STOXX 600: The STOXX 50 erased early gains after hitting record highs at the open, hovering near the flatline on Thursday, while the broader STOXX 600 slipped 0.3% after closing at new highs the previous session, pressured by declines in banking stocks. HSBC plunged over 6% after unveiling plans to take its Hong Kong–based unit, Hang Seng Bank, private in a deal valued at more than HK$290 billion. Lloyds dropped 3.4% following a warning about potential costs tied to the UK’s motor finance probe. Ferrari sank more than 16% after revising its 2030 outlook and toning down its electrification targets. L'Oréal and UniCredit both slipped around 1%. On the upside, Hermès rose 1.4% to its highest since August, while Siemens, Schneider Electric, Vinci, and Mercedes-Benz also gained modestly. Political uncertainty in France added to the cautious tone, as President Macron said he will appoint a new prime minister within 48 hours.

China Stocks Hit 10-Year Highs: The Shanghai Composite rose 1.32% to 3,934, while the Shenzhen Component gained 1.47% to 13,725 on Thursday, with the former reaching its highest level in more than a decade as mainland markets reopened following the long Golden Week holiday. Mining stocks led gains amid firmer metals prices and after Beijing announced export controls on rare earth production technology to reinforce its dominance in the sector amid intensifying rivalry with the US. Top performers included Zijin Mining (10%), China Northern Rare Earth (10%), and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (6.7%). Technology shares also advanced on global AI momentum, with ZTE Corp, Giga Device Semiconductor, Hygon Information, Foxconn Industrial, and IEIT Systems rising between 2.1% and 9.5%. Meanwhile, investors looked ahead to the Communist Party’s leadership meeting on Oct. 20-23 and a potential Xi-Trump meeting at the APEC summit later this month.

Steel Prices Rise as China Markets Reopen: Steel rebar futures climbed above CNY 3,060 per ton on Thursday, rebounding from three-month lows as Chinese markets reopened following the long Golden Week holiday, with the country’s metals sector showing resilience during the break. Steel output remained strong amid firm seasonal demand, while broader sentiment was supported by expectations of steady infrastructure activity. Meanwhile, investors monitored trade developments after the EU announced plans to cut tariff-free quotas on imported steel and double tariffs on excess imports from 25% to 50%. At the same time, China is moving to curb new capacity to tackle oversupply and weak prices. Steel and iron ore remain at the center of the government’s anti-involution campaign, as the ongoing property downturn continues to strain ferrous metal demand and intensify competition among mills for limited market share.

Turkey industrial Output Growth accelerates in August: Industrial production in Turkey rose 7.1% year-on-year in August 2025, accelerating from a revised 5.2% gain in the previous month. Growth was broad-based, led by manufacturing (7.7% vs 5.6% in July), followed by electricity, gas, and air-conditioning supply (6.1% vs 5.8%), and mining and quarrying (2.6% vs 0.9%). On a monthly basis, industrial output rebounded 0.4% in August, following a revised 1.7% decline in July.

Saudi Arabia Industrial Output Growth Slows in August: Industrial production in Saudi Arabia rose by 7.1% year-on-year in August 2025, easing from an upwardly revised 7.6% increase in the previous month. The slowdown was mainly due to a smaller rise in oil activities (8.3% vs 8.4% in July), driven by a sharp moderation in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (8.9% vs 23.1%). Growth also slowed for water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities (6% vs 6.5%). Meanwhile, non-oil activities expanded at a faster pace (4.4% vs 3.2%), supported by higher manufacturing output (3.7% vs 3.2%), particularly in paper and paper products (3.2% vs 2.9%) and chemicals and chemical products (8.6% vs 8%). Output growth also accelerated for electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply (8.7% vs 2%). On a monthly basis, industrial activity rose 1.4%, easing from a 2.4% gain in July.

German Exports Fall Unexpectedly in August: Germany’s exports dropped 0.5% month-over-month to a nine-month low of EUR 129.67 billion in August 2025, following a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in July, missing market forecasts of 0.3% growth. The decline was primarily driven by weaker demand from EU countries, which fell by 2.5%. Both the Euro area and non-Euro area countries declined by 2.2% and 3.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, exports to non-EU countries rose 2.2%, despite a 2.5% decline in shipments to the US, affected by US tariffs. Shipments to the US declined for the fifth consecutive month, reaching EUR 10.9 billion—the lowest value since November 2021. Exports to the UK also fell by 6.5%. In contrast, exports to China increased 5.4%, while shipments to Russia surged 53.5%. For the first eight months of the year, outbound shipments advanced 0.5% compared to the same period last year, reaching EUR 1 trillion.

Iron Ore Gains as China Markets Reopen: Iron ore futures climbed above CNY 793 per ton on Thursday as Chinese markets resumed trading after the long Golden Week holiday, with the sector showing stability during the break. Shipments remained steady and steel mills continued restocking to meet stronger seasonal demand, while inventories kept declining. Meanwhile, investors assessed trade developments after the EU moved to cut tariff-free quotas on imported steel and raise tariffs on excess imports from 25% to 50%. The measure aims to curb inflows and protect domestic producers amid global overcapacity and shrinking margins, as Western economies seek to preserve strategic industrial output. At the same time, China is preparing to restrict new capacity to ease oversupply pressures, with authorities targeting a 2%-3% nationwide cut in steel production this year.

Dutch Household Spending Growth Eases: Household consumption in the Netherlands rose by 1.1% year-on-year in August 2025, slowing from a 1.3% increase in the previous month. The slowdown was mainly due to a smaller rise in the consumption of goods (0.7% vs 1.1% in July), reflecting moderated spending on durable consumer goods (1.9% vs 3.4%), while there was a slight rebound in the consumption of food, beverages, and tobacco (0.3% vs -1.3%). Meanwhile, consumption growth for services was unchanged at 1.4%, mainly driven by spending on transport, communication, and hospitality. Spending on services accounts for more than half of total household consumption expenditure. The September Consumption Radar, which tracks key factors affecting household spending, showed slightly improved conditions from August as consumer sentiment and employment prospects strengthened.

Silver Hovers at Record Highs: Silver traded around $49 per ounce on Thursday, holding steady after touching a new record high in the previous session, as heightened political and economic uncertainties and bets on US rate cuts drove safe-haven demand. Investors continued to weigh the effects of the ongoing US government shutdown, which has clouded the economic outlook and delayed key data releases crucial for Fed policy decisions. The latest FOMC minutes showed officials acknowledging rising risks to the labor market that could justify a rate cut, though concerns over inflation persisted. Meanwhile, markets faced renewed political turbulence in France and leadership changes in Japan. Tight physical market also underpinned silver prices, supported by strong industrial demand from the solar and electronics sectors, with the Silver Institute projecting a global supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.

Palm Oil Holds Firm at 7-Week Peak: Malaysian palm oil futures rose for the third straight session to around MYR 4,575 per tonne, maintaining a seven-week high. Gains were driven by stronger rival Dalian oils as markets in China reopened after a week-long holiday, along with expectations of seasonally lower production in the coming weeks. Export sentiment also strengthened after cargo surveyors noted Malaysian shipments up 7.3–9.6% in September from August, while Reuters estimated stockpiles fell 2.5% to 2.15 million tons. In Indonesia, the world’s top producer, the government plans to introduce B50 biodiesel in 2026 and may launch 10% bioethanol in gasoline to curb emissions and fuel imports. Still, caution ahead of September’s monthly data capped gains. Demand from India, the world’s largest buyer, stayed weak, slipping 15.9% to 833,000 tons in September and potentially dropping to 600,000 tons as festive buying peaks. Falling crude oil prices and lingering U.S. government shutdown worries also weighed on sentiment.

Copper Climbs on Global Mine Disruptions: Copper futures strengthened above $5 per pound on Thursday, hitting over two-month highs as a series of mine disruptions in Chile and Indonesia stoked supply concerns. Production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine remains constrained after last month’s fatal accident, with operator Freeport-McMoRan signaling that full output may not resume until early 2027. In Chile, state-owned Codelco suspended mining and smelting operations at its El Teniente site following an earthquake in late July. Meanwhile, Canada’s Teck Resources cut its annual production forecast to 170,000–190,000 metric tons from an earlier 210,000–230,000. Adding to the bullish sentiment, expectations for another Federal Reserve rate cut this month and a further reduction in December lifted the broader demand outlook for industrial metals.

China Stocks Climb After Golden Week Break: The Shanghai Composite rose 0.6% to above 3,900, while the Shenzhen Component gained 1.5% to 13,725 on Thursday as mainland markets reopened following the long Golden Week holiday, which saw a record 2.43 billion cross-regional passenger trips. Mining stocks led the advance after Beijing imposed export controls on rare earth production technology in a bid to strengthen its dominance in the sector amid growing competition with the US. Major gainers included Zijin Mining (6.9%), China Northern Rare Earth (5.7%), and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (2.4%). Technology shares also rose, tracking global AI optimism, with Giga Device Semiconductor up 8.8%, Zhongji Innolight 1.9%, and Foxconn Industrial 4.6%.

Hong Kong Shares Down for 4th Session: Hong Kong equities dipped 83 points, or 0.3%, to 26,750 on Thursday morning deals, marking the fourth straight decline as traders responded to reports that China launched export controls on rare earth production technology amid mounting rivalry with the U.S. Financials led losses, down 1.7%, after fresh data showed the city’s forex reserves hit a 5-month low in September, the third monthly drop. On the corporate front, HSBC Holdings proposed to privatize Hang Seng Bank in a USD 37.3 billion deal, sending Hong Kong HSBC shares tumbled over 5% while Hang Seng Bank surged almost 30%. Tech stocks also fell as U.S. lawmakers pushed for broader curbs on chipmaking tool exports to China. Consumer shares weakened due to persistent deflationary pressures in China. Among top decliners were pharma names such as Innovent Biologics (-9.0%), Sino Biopharma (-6.7%), and Wuxi Biologics (-3.4%). Losses were partially offset by the resumption of mainland trading after the eight-day National Day holiday.

Gold Holds at Record Level: Gold hovered around $4,040 per ounce on Thursday, holding at record highs, supported by economic uncertainty and a dovish Federal Reserve. Minutes from the latest FOMC meeting showed that officials viewed rising risks to the US labor market as justification for a rate cut, though concerns over persistent inflation kept them cautious. Markets are currently pricing in 25 bps cuts in both October and December, with probabilities of 94% and 79%, respectively. The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its second week, has delayed economic data releases and threatened public-sector layoffs, continuing to fuel broader market anxiety. Meanwhile, signs of easing geopolitical tensions slightly reduced the metal’s safe-haven demand after President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed on the first phase of a peace plan—potentially ending the two-year war and freeing hostages.

Italy May Cut Budget Deficit Below 3% of GDP in 2025: Italy's budget deficit could fall below 3% of GDP as early as this year, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said on Wednesday, according to Reuters. “The deficit-to-GDP ratio will fall steadily below 3% from 2026, perhaps even from 2025 — we shall see,” Giorgetti said at an event in Rome. Last week, the minister announced that the government would lower its 2025 deficit-to-GDP target to 3%, down from a previous forecast of 3.3%. A ratio at or below 3% would allow Italy to exit the EU’s infringement procedure for excessive deficits by mid-2026 — one year ahead of schedule. In 2024, Italy’s deficit stood at 3.4%, comfortably below the government’s 3.8% goal. However, recent data showed that the country’s GDP contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025. As a result, the government has slightly revised its full-year 2025 growth forecast to 0.5%, down from 0.6% projected in April.

US Futures Steady After Tech-Fueled Rally: US stock futures held steady on Thursday after major indexes rallied to new record highs in the previous session, led by strong gains in technology shares. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.58% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.12%, both setting fresh records, while the Dow ended flat. The rally was driven by AI-related megacaps and chipmakers, with AMD soaring 11.4% after investors reacted positively to its partnership with OpenAI. Nvidia gained 2.2% after CEO Jensen Huang said computing demand had “gone up substantially” this year. Other major tech names also rose, including Broadcom (2.7%), Micron Technology (5.8%), Tesla (1.2%), Amazon (1.5%), and Oracle (1.5%). Meanwhile, FOMC minutes revealed mixed views on the policy outlook, and investors now await remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later today. Earnings reports from Delta Air Lines and PepsiCo are also due.

UK House Price Balance Remains Weak: The RICS UK Residential Market Survey showed the house price balance rising 4 points to -15 in September 2025, marking the first improvement in four months and beating forecasts of -18. Despite the uptick, prices stayed under pressure, with the South East and East Anglia seeing the steepest declines, while Scotland and Northern Ireland posted modest gains. Respondents remained cautious about a rebound in sales volumes, with both short-term and 12-month expectations at -9%. Although near-term price expectations stayed negative at -21%, a net +12% of participants expected prices to rise over the next year. Tarrant Parsons, head of market research and analytics at RICS, noted: “The housing market continues to struggle for momentum, with no clear catalyst in sight for a near-term turnaround.”

Kenya to Resume Talks with IMF on New Loan Programme: Kenya will resume talks with the International Monetary Fund next week in Washington on a potential new programme, Central Bank Governor Kamau Thugge said Wednesday. The discussions follow the expiry earlier this year of Kenya’s USD 3.6 billion IMF programme, with officials seeking a new arrangement that includes a lending component. “The discussions will continue next week when we go to Washington, and of course, we hope to reach agreement on our funded programme as soon as possible,” Thugge said at a press conference. Analysts say a fresh IMF loan deal would help Kenya manage its external debt repayments and strengthen financial stability amid ongoing fiscal pressures.

EU Plans Safeguards for Farmers Under Mercosur Trade Deal: The European Commission has proposed a regulation to safeguard EU farmers as part of the bloc’s pending Mercosur trade deal. The plan would let the commission monitor sensitive imports like beef and poultry and launch investigations if cheaper South American goods surge or domestic prices fall. “The commission will examine, as a matter of priority, cases where there is a surge of imports or a decrease in domestic prices concentrated in one or several member states,” it said. The move follows the recently outlined trade pact with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay, which still requires EU member approval and has drawn opposition over risks to Europe’s farming sector. Under the proposal, the commission will open an investigation if import prices from Mercosur are at least 10% below EU levels and either annual imports rise or prices drop by more than 10%. Preferential tariffs could be suspended if market distortions are found.