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US 1-Year Inflation Expectations Edge Down in October: The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as compiled by the survey of the University of Michigan, eased for the second month to 4.6% in October 2025, from 4.7% in September, according to preliminary figures. Meanwhile, the five-year inflation outlook stood at 3.7% in October, matching September's reading.

US Consumer Sentiment Little Changed in October: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US came in at 55 in October 2025, compared to 55.1 in in September 2025 and forecasts of 54.2, preliminary estimates showed. Consumer sentiment was virtually unchanged from September, as improvements in current personal finances and year-ahead business conditions were offset by declines in expectations for future personal finances as well as current buying conditions for durables. The current economic conditions subindex increased to 61 from 60.4 while the expectations gauge edged down to 51.2 from 51.7. Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month. Meanwhile, year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 4.6% from 4.7% while long-run inflation expectations held steady at 3.7%.

US Natgas Prices Fall to 2-Week Low: US natural gas futures fell about 3% to $3.17/MMBtu, the lowest in two weeks, pressured by ample storage levels and forecasts for mild weather that should limit heating and cooling demand through late October. Record-high production earlier this year enabled larger-than-usual injections into storage, leaving inventories about 4% above the seasonal average. The latest EIA data showed an 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) storage build for the week ending October 3, slightly above both market expectations of 77 bcf and last year’s 78 bcf. Still, average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 106.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September. On the export side, gas flows to US LNG terminals averaged 16.1 bcfd so far this month, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and close to record highs. US natural gas prices have declined over 4% this week, snapping a two-week rally.

TSX Edges Higher: The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3% to surpass 30,350 on Friday, following yesterday's decline, mainly boosted by base metals, industrials and utilities. Meanwhile, traders assessed the latest employment figures for clues about the trajectory of interest rates. Canada's economy added an unexpected 60,000 jobs in September, led by gains in the tariff-struck manufacturing sector, while unemployment held steady at 7.1%, slightly below market expectations of 7.2%. Top advancers included Bitfarms (+20.8%), Aritzia Inc Subordinate Voting Shares (+13.4%), Hut 8 Corp (+7.3%), Energy Fuels (+4%), Galaxi Digital Inc (+3.3%) and Cameco Corporation (+3%). Mining company First Quantum Minerals rose nearly 2% after JP Morgan upgraded its rating to 'overweight' from 'neutral'.

Brazil Producer Prices Fall for Seventh Month: Brazil’s producer prices fell 0.2% month-over-month in August 2025, after a 0.31% drop in July, marking the seventh straight decline. Prices decreased in 12 of 24 industrial activities, led by perfumery, soap, and cleaning products (-1.66%), wood (-1.59%), and paper and pulp (-1.42%), while computer and electronic equipment rose 1.59%. Food products (-0.44%) had the strongest downward impact, followed by chemicals (-0.93%) and extractive industries (-1.39%). By economic category, consumer goods fell 0.40%, intermediate goods 0.14%, while capital goods rose 0.38%. Annually, producer inflation eased to 0.48% from 1.35% in July.

S&P and Nasdaq Break Another Record: US stocks traded higher on Friday, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rising 0.3% to reach fresh record highs, while the Dow Jones added nearly 200 points. Gains were broad-based across sectors, with energy the only notable laggard. Despite recent volatility, equities are on track to finish the week with modest gains, up 0.3% for the S&P 500 and 1.1% for the Nasdaq, while the Dow Jones is poised to close 0.9% lower. Traders remain cautious, awaiting new catalysts while digesting corporate updates and preparing for the upcoming earnings season, amid the ongoing federal government shutdown and a lack of fresh economic data. Figures from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment was little changed this month while inflation expectations for the year ahead eased. Among individual movers, Tesla, JPMorgan, and Oracle each gained over 1%. Qualcomm slipped 1% following reports of an antitrust probe in China, while Intel rose 2% after unveiling its new Panther Lake processors.

Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield Little Changed at 3.19%: The yield on the 10-year Canadian government bond has been fluctuating around 3.19% in October, near its May-lows, as traders continue to monitor economic, political, and monetary developments. Market expectations for another 25bps rate cut by the Bank of Canada later this month have fallen to 57% from 72%, following stronger-than-expected labour market data showing a 60K increase in employment, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly held steady at 7.1%. On the political front, Prime Minister Carney met with US President Trump to continue tariff negotiations. Carney said Canada “will get an even better deal,” while Trump pledged to treat Canada fairly but was less committal regarding a broader continental trade deal that includes Mexico. In addition, Carney’s government is set to unveil its first budget on November 4, where new investment-focused stimulus measures are expected to be announced. The government has indicated plans to expand the fiscal deficit to around 3% of GDP.

Canada Jobless Rate Steady as Employment Rebounds: Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% in September 2025, slightly below market expectations of 7.2% but remaining at its highest level since August 2021. The number of unemployed people rose by 11,900 (+0.7%) to 1.61 million, while employment increased by 60,400 (+0.3%) to 21.02 million, easily surpassing forecasts for a modest 5,000 gain and partly offsetting a 106,000 (-0.5%) decline over the previous two months. Full-time employment rose sharply by 106,100 (+0.6%), whereas part-time jobs fell by 45,600 (-1.2%). The employment rate edged up 0.1 percentage point to 60.6%, marking the first increase in three months, while the labor force participation rate also ticked higher by 0.1 point to 65.2%.

US Futures Little Changed: US stock futures hovered around the flatline on Friday, following a lackluster session the previous day and a volatile week poised to end with modest gains of 0.3% for the S&P 500 and 1.1% for the Nasdaq, while the Dow Jones is set to close 0.9% lower. Traders remained cautious amid the ongoing federal government shutdown and a lack of fresh economic data, while awaiting new catalysts. Still, attention turns to the release of preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment figures later today. The earnings season is also set to ramp up next week. On the corporate front, Qualcomm shares fell about 1.5% in premarket trading after reports of an antitrust probe in China, while Intel gained 2% following the announcement of its new Panther Lake processors. Among megacaps, Nvidia (+0.6%), Meta (+0.2%), Broadcom (+0.4%), and Tesla (+0.3%) advanced, while Microsoft and Alphabet were little changed. Apple (-0.2%) and Amazon (-0.2%) traded slightly lower.

European Stocks Stocks Lack Direction: European stocks swung between small gains and losses on Friday, weighed down mainly by mining and energy shares. Sentiment was pressured after China tightened export controls on rare earths and related technologies and barred its citizens from engaging in unauthorized overseas mining. Meanwhile, oil prices declined as the ceasefire in Gaza took effect, easing concerns about crude shipments through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. Among individual movers, Siemens Energy fell 3.1%, ArcelorMittal dropped 2.9%, Shell lost 1%, and BP declined 0.7%. Defense stocks were also under pressure, with Safran down 1.5%, Rheinmetall 2.3%, Renk 2.6%, Leonardo 4.3%, and Hensoldt 4.7%. On the other hand, Stellantis gained nearly 1% after reporting a 13% increase in Q3 deliveries and Mercedes-Benz added 2.1%. Also, Jyske Bank was among the top performers, rising 4% after raising its earnings per share guidance. For the week, the STOXX 50 is down 0.4%, while the STOXX 600 is up 0.1% so far.

Spain Consumer Confidence Dips Slightly in September: Spain’s consumer confidence indicator slipped to 81.5 in September 2025, down from a six-month high of 82.9 in July and 84.8 a year earlier. The decline reflected more negative assessments of the current economic situation, which fell to 77.5 from 81.8 in July. Conversely, household expectations strengthened, rising to 85.5, the highest level since May, up from 84.1.

Sensex Ends at 3-Week High, Posts Weekly Gain: India's BSE Sensex closed about 0.4% firmer at 82,501 on Friday, its highest in three weeks, marking the second session of gains, driven by banks and energy stocks. Market sentiment was bolstered by optimism over India-US trade negotiations and continued foreign institutional inflows, with FIIs buying Indian equities in the cash segment since 7 October. Among individual stocks, State Bank of India topped the gainers, rising more than 2%, while Axis Bank added over 1% following the central bank’s lending reforms and stronger-than-expected loan growth for the September quarter. India’s largest integrated power utility, NTPC, also advanced over 1%, after the PSU and the Government of Gujarat on Thursday signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to explore opportunities in both conventional and non-conventional energy sectors. For the week, the index posted a 1.6% increase, notching the second straight weekly gain.

Portugal Inflation Rate Falls to 3-Month Low: The annual inflation rate in Portugal fell to a 3-month low of 2.4% in September 2025 from 2.8% in August, in line with preliminary estimates. Prices eased for transport (1.9% vs 2.1%), restaurant & hotels (6.2% vs 7.7%), recreation & culture (1% vs 2.8%) and health (3% vs 3.1%). Also, inflation was steady for food & non-alcoholic beverages (at 4%), housing & utilities (at 2.2%), furniture & household equipment (0.2%), and education (3.4%). On the other hand, prices accelerated for miscellaneous goods & services (2.1% vs 1.9%) and alcoholic beverages & tobacco (1.6% vs 0.9%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.9%, after a 0.2% fall in August.

DAX Pulls Back from Record Highs: Germany's DAX turned slightly negative to trade around 24,500 on Friday, as investors booked profits after recent peaks and defense stocks weakened following the Middle East peace deal backed by President Trump. Defense names Hensoldt and Renk slipped toward the bottom of the index, shedding 4.2% and 2.6%, with Rheinmetall also down 2%. MTU Aero Engines (-3.4%) and Siemens Energy (-2.6%) also faced pressure. Meanwhile, investors remained focused on the political situation in France and the prolonged US government shutdown, while bracing for the start of the Q3 earnings season next week. Among top gainers, Bayer and Mercedes-Benz Group stood out, rising 2.8% and 2%, respectively. For the week, the DAX was poised to book a 0.7% gain.

Italy 10-Year BTP Holds Steady Amid European Political Uncertainty: The yield on Italy’s 10-year BTP hovered around 3.5%, holding slightly below the high of 3.6% after the French prime minister’s resignation rattled markets, as investors remained cautious amid further political moves in Europe. Markets are closely watching French President Macron as he prepares to appoint a new prime minister, marking the sixth change of government leadership during his tenure. S&P Global is set to review Italy’s credit rating on Friday, with markets expecting the “BBB+” rating and stable outlook to be maintained amid weak growth offsetting fiscal progress. On the macro front, the European Central Bank signaled its intention to keep interest rates steady, stating that current policy is sufficient to anchor the medium-term inflation target at 2%.

Japan 10-Year Yield Near 17-Year High Amid Political Uncertainty: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield held just below 1.7%, staying close to an over 17-year high of 1.705% reached on October 8, as investors weighed fresh political developments and their potential impact on the Bank of Japan’s policy path. Komeito, the Liberal Democratic Party’s long-time coalition partner, said it would leave the ruling bloc after new LDP President Sanae Takaichi rejected its proposal on political donations. The split ends a 26-year alliance and forces the LDP to seek opposition support to confirm Takaichi as prime minister, potentially complicating her expansionary policy agenda. On the monetary front, investors have increased bets on a possible Bank of Japan rate hike as soon as October 30, amid a 3.5% slide in the yen against the US dollar since Takaichi’s election, which may further stoke import-driven inflation. Adding to those expectations, data showed wholesale prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in September, exceeding forecasts of a 2.5% gain.

Rwanda Inflation Rate Slows for 3rd Month: Rwanda's overall inflation rate eased for a third consecutive month in September 2025, hitting a six-month low of 6.2% in September 2025, compared to 6.4% in August. Prices slowed down mainly for food & non-alcoholic beverages (4% vs 5% in August) and clothing & footwear (5.4% vs 6.2%). By contrast, health prices continued to climb, rising to 62.5% from 62%, largely due to an unfavorable exchange rate, as the medical products used are mostly imported and purchased in foreign currency, especially dollars. Other significant increases were seen for restaurants & hotels (17.1% vs 16.8%); education (10.6% vs 5.5%); communication (17.6% vs 17.6%); alcoholic beverages (12.3% vs 11.5%); transportation (6.8% vs 5.5%); and housing & utilities (2.7% vs 1.9%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 1.3% in September, after a 0.7% increase in the prior month.

Hang Seng Under Pressure to End at 2-Week Low: The Hang Seng tumbled 462 points, or 1.7%, to close at 26,290 on Friday, extending losses for the fifth straight session and hitting a two-week low. Tech shares led the slump, down over 3%, after China tightened rare earth export controls and stepped up enforcement of chip import restrictions to curb reliance on U.S. products such as Nvidia’s AI processors. Consumer stocks also lost about 2.7%, as investors turned anxious ahead of key Chinese data for September next week, including trade, CPI/PPI, and credit figures. Major laggards included Zhaojin Mining (-7.4%), SMIC (-7.2%), China Hongqiao (-5.9%), Kuaishou Tech (-5.4%), and Tencent (-3.6%). Still, further losses were cushioned by continued bets on a late-October Fed rate cut as well as Wall Street’s recent record highs. Meantime, sentiment toward mainland stocks stayed upbeat, with Chinese benchmarks hovering over decade highs after the Golden Week break. For the week, the Hang Seng fell 3.1%, reversing rally from the prior period.

Agricultural Commodities Updates: Wool Falls by 3.07%: Top commodity losers are Wool (-3.07%) and Palm Oil (-1.09%). Gains are led by Rubber (1.77%) and Rice (1.49%).

Italy Industrial Output Falls More than Expected: Italy’s industrial production plunged by 2.4% month-on-month in August 2025, worse than market expectations of a 0.4% fall and reversing a 0.4% increase in July. This was the sharpest drop since December 2024, dragged by lower output across all major sectors, namely capital goods (-2.2%), consumer goods (-1.2%), intermediate goods (-1.2%), and energy (-0.6%). On a yearly basis, industrial production slumped by 2.7% in August, defying market forecasts of a 0.5% rise and following a 0.9% gain in the previous month. The biggest annual decline was seen in the supply of electricity, gas, steam, and air, which plunged by 13.5%.

FTSE Moves Further Away from Record High: The FTSE 100 traded lower on Friday, extending losses from its record high of 9,549 on October 8, as weakness in mining and energy stocks weighed on the index. Precious metals miners led declines, with Endeavour Mining down 3.7% and Fresnillo losing over 3.5% as gold prices paused after recent gains. Rio Tinto and Anglo American fell about 1%, while Glencore and Antofagasta eased 0.5% as copper prices pulled back. Energy majors Shell (-0.6%) and BP (-0.3%) followed oil lower. The index was also dragged by heavyweight overseas earners, including AstraZeneca (-0.8%) and HSBC (-0.5%), as the dollar weakened. Despite Friday’s dip, the FTSE 100 remains slightly higher for the week, poised to notch its third consecutive weekly gain.

Metals Commodities Updates: Top commodity gainers are Silver (2.58%), Silicon (0.52%) and Gold (0.09%). Biggest losers are Platimum (-1.56%), Copper (-0.64%) and Steel Rebar (-0.52).

CAC 40 Edges Up as Banks and Automakers Lead Gains: The Paris CAC 40 rose 0.2% to around 8,063 on Friday, recovering from mild losses in the previous session as investors remained cautious amid ongoing political uncertainty in France. Market attention stayed focused on the evolving political landscape, with President Emmanuel Macron expected to appoint a new prime minister soon—his sixth leadership change since taking office. Bank stocks outperformed, with BNP Paribas climbing 1.2%, Crédit Agricole adding 0.9%, and Société Générale advancing 0.5%. In the industrial sector, Stellantis gained 1.8% after reporting a 13% year-on-year increase in global vehicle shipments in the third quarter. Airbus edged up 0.1%, supported by projections for steady long-term growth in global aviation demand, expected to rise 10% in 2025 and reach $311 billion by 2044. On the downside, ArcelorMittal led losses with a 2.6% drop, while TotalEnergies and Thales each slipped 0.5%.

Energy Commodities Updates: Natural gas Drops by 1.79%: Top commodity losers are Natural gas (-1.79%), Natural Gas EU Dutch TTF (-1.47%), Natural Gas UK GBP (-1.42%), Brent Crude Oil (-0.56%) and Crude Oil WTI (-0.42%).

US Heating Oil Futures Fall to 8-Week Low: US heating oil futures fell to around $2.23 per gallon, the lowest since August 15, due to easing geopolitical risks. The decline followed news that Israel and Hamas agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange, marking the first phase of a peace plan aimed at ending the Gaza war. Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced a modest November output increase of 137,000 barrels per day, smaller than expected but still contributing to a growing surplus. Capping losses, the EIA’s latest outlook indicated that US distillate inventories will stay below average through 2026, pressured by strong exports, refinery closures, and significant stock draws earlier this year. Inventories fell by 17%, or about 22 million barrels, in the first half of 2025. Demand for distillate fuel oil rose 5% as renewable diesel and biodiesel output slumped 35% year-on-year. Looking ahead, further refinery closures in Houston and California are likely to keep supply tight well into 2026.

DAX Poised for New Record: Germany’s DAX rose 0.2% to around 24,670 on Friday, putting it on track for a new record high and marking a fourth straight session of gains. All eyes remain on the international and geopolitical landscape, with the evolving crisis in France and the easing of tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the US shutdown, now in its second week, is delaying the release of crucial economic data, including the September jobs report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. On the corporate front, autos and banks were among the top performers. Mercedes-Benz Group led the index, climbing nearly 3%, while Porsche Automobil and Volkswagen rose over 1% each, rebounding from losses linked to Ferrari’s decline yesterday. Commerzbank gained around 1% and Deutsche Bank added 0.4%. On the downside, top losers included MTU Aero Engines (-1.7%), Siemens Energy (-1.6%) and Rheinmetall (-0.9%). For the week, the DAX was likely to rise over 1%.

Gold Holds Near $4,000 After Record High: Spot gold hovered just below the $4,000 mark on Friday, as investors took a breather following a rally that lifted the precious metal to an all-time high of $4,059 on Wednesday. The metal has risen about 52% this year and was on track for a 2.2% weekly gain—its eighth consecutive advance—driven by persistent geopolitical tensions, global economic uncertainty, and growing expectations of further US interest rate cuts. While Israel’s government ratified a ceasefire with Hamas on Friday, paving the way to halt hostilities in Gaza within 24 hours, investors remain focused on broader headwinds, including slowing global growth, sticky inflation, and continued diversification away from US assets and the dollar. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown is set to enter its third week, while political turmoil in France continues following the resignation of PM Lecornu. On the monetary policy front, the Fed is widely expected to deliver 25 bps rate cuts in each of its remaining meetings this year.

European Stocks Waver: The STOXX 50 rose 0.3%, while the STOXX 600 hovered around the flatline on Friday, wrapping up a muted week for European equities. Traders remained cautious, awaiting fresh catalysts, monitoring corporate updates, and preparing for the start of the earnings season. Markets also continued to watch the political situation in France, with President Macron expected to announce a new prime minister soon. The auto sector rebounded after having its worst day since March. Stellantis gained nearly 2% after reporting a 13% increase in Q3 deliveries, driven largely by strong sales in North America. Mercedes-Benz added 2.2%, and Volkswagen rose 0.9%. Banks were also in the green, including Banco Santander (1%) and UniCredit (0.6%). On the other hand, the healthcare sector was under pressure, namely Novo Nordisk (0.9%), Novartis (0.5%), and AstraZeneca (0.9%). For the week, the STOXX 50 is down 0.4%, while the STOXX 600 is up 0.1% so far.

Czech Republic Inflation Confirmed at 5-Month Low: The annual inflation rate in the Czech Republic eased to 2.3% in September 2025, the lowest reading since April, from 2.5% in the previous month, confirming earlier estimates. Price growth slowed for food and non-alcoholic beverages (2.7% vs 4.7% in August), furnishings, household equipment and maintenance (1.5% vs 1.8%), communication (0.5% vs 0.6%), recreation and culture (4.1% vs 4.2%), education (4.2% vs 11.2%), and miscellaneous goods and services (2.9% vs 3%). At the same time, prices recovered for transport (0.2% vs -1.1%), while deflation slowed for clothing and footwear (-1.7% vs -1.9%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.6% in September, the lowest in two years, reversing a 0.1% gain in the preceding period.

Turkey Retail Sales Growth Eases to 4-Month Low: Retail sales in Turkey rose 12.2% year-on-year in August 2025, slowing from a revised 13.3% gain in the previous month, marking the third consecutive monthly deceleration. The slowdown was largely driven by softer demand for food, beverages, and tobacco in specialized stores (9.6% vs 14.2%) and technology and media products (21.9% vs 24.0%). Conversely, growth accelerated in consumer goods and household products (10.7% vs 8.0%), textiles, clothing and footwear (3.7% vs 2.0%), and healthcare and personal care products (13.7% vs 11.9%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail activity rose 0.9% in August, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in July.

Austria Industrial Output Growth Slows in August: Industrial production in Austria rose 0.8% year-on-year in August 2025, easing from an upwardly revised 3.2% increase in July. The slowdown was mainly driven by a smaller rise in industrial activity (1.9% vs. 4.9%) and a continued decline in construction output (-2.7%, unchanged). Within industrial groupings, production fell for energy (-9.2% vs. -8%) and consumer non-durables (-3.7% vs. 22.5%). Growth also slowed for capital goods (0.5% vs. 2.4%), while output accelerated for intermediate goods (5.4% vs. 1.3%) and rebounded for consumer durables (10.1% vs. -6.7%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production dropped 2.3%, reversing a 1.8% gain in July.

Platinum Falls as Investors Take Profits: Platinum slipped to around $1,600 per ounce on Friday, extending losses for a second session and pulling back from 12-year highs as investors took profits following a strong rally. Precious metals have surged in recent weeks, with gold and silver reaching new records, driven by concerns over the prolonged US government shutdown and expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts that lifted safe-haven demand. Ongoing political instability in major economies and mounting global deficit and debt pressures have also supported buying. Meanwhile, near-term demand for platinum in gasoline vehicle catalysts remains firm amid strong hybrid vehicle sales, despite the longer-term shift toward electric vehicles. The World Platinum Investment Council projects platinum mine supply to decline at a -1.5% compound annual growth rate between 2024 and 2029.

Swedish Industry Orders Rebound in August: Total orders received by Swedish industry rose by 7.3% year-on-year in August 2025, reversing a 1.4% drop in the previous month. The increase was driven by a rebound in domestic demand which climbed 3.0%, reversing a 1.2% drop in the previous month. At the same time, foreign orders increased 10.0% from 0.1%.On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, new orders rose by 7.2%, following a 2.4% decline in the previous month. Most industrial subsectors saw positive developments in both domestic and export markets compared to July. Year-to-date, total industry orders were 5.3% higher than in the same period last year.

Sweden Industrial Output Rises in August: Industrial production in Sweden climbed by 10.6% year-on-year in August 2025, accelerating sharply from an upwardly revised 3.9% gain in the previous month. This marked the fifth consecutive month of growth in industrial activity as output increased at a faster pace for the manufacturing sector (10.4% vs 3.4% in July). On the other hand, production growth slowed for mining and quarrying (17.8% vs 18.9%), while it declined for electricity, gas, steam, and hot water plants (-8.7% vs 5.3%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial output rose by 5.1% in August 2025, rebounding from an upwardly revised 5.3% fall in the previous month.

China Intensifies Chip Import Controls: China has ramped up enforcement of its import restrictions on U.S. semiconductors, including Nvidia’s AI chips, as it pushes for domestic chip development, according to the Financial Times. Customs officials have been dispatched to major ports to inspect shipments, initially targeting Nvidia’s H20 and RTX Pro 6000D—models designed to comply with U.S. export controls. These checks have expanded to cover all advanced chips that may breach U.S. curbs. Chinese regulators have accused Nvidia of violating anti-monopoly laws and ordered tech firms to halt purchases and cancel existing orders. On Thursday, China also announced export curbs on certain artificial diamonds, set to take effect just before the U.S.-China tariff truce expires, further tightening Beijing’s grip on high-tech supply chains.

Norway Inflation Rate Climbs to 7-Month High: Norway’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.6% in September 2025, compared to expectations and August’s 3.5%, marking the highest level since February. The main upward pressures came from faster price growth for food and non-alcoholic beverages (6.3% vs. 5.4%) and transport (2.9% vs. 2.7%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for housing and utilities (6.2% vs. 6.3%), recreation and culture (2.5% vs. 2.9%), and restaurants and hotels (3.2% vs. 3.8%). Prices continued to decline for clothing and footwear (-2.1% vs. -2.5%) and for furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance (-1.3% vs. -0.9%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.4%, exceeding expectations of a 0.3% increase, after a 0.6% fall in August. The CPI-ATE (adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products) rose 3% year-on-year, slightly below both August’s rate and forecasts of 3.1%, while monthly prices increased 0.2%, less than the expected 0.4% rise, after a 0.7% decline in August.

Copper Near 10-Week High on Supply Concerns: Copper futures slipped below $5.1 per pound on Friday amid profit-taking but remained near ten-week highs as mine disruptions in Chile and Indonesia continued to tighten global supply. Industry data showed Chilean state miner Codelco produced 93,400 metric tons in August, its lowest monthly output in over two decades and down 25% from a year earlier. A deadly July 31 accident at the El Teniente mine killed six workers, injured nine, and halted operations for more than a week, forcing the company to cut its annual production forecast. Output at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine also remains limited after last month’s fatal accident, with operator Freeport-McMoRan saying full capacity may not return until early 2027. Meanwhile, Canada’s Teck Resources lowered its annual production outlook to 170,000–190,000 metric tons from 210,000–230,000.

Denmark Inflation Rises to 2.3% in September: The annual inflation rate in Denmark rose to 2.3% in September 2025 from 2% in the previous month. Upward pressure came from higher prices for housing and utilities (1.6% vs 1.3% in August), transport (2.0% vs 0.6%), recreation and culture (3.0% vs 2.6%), restaurants and hotels (1.8% vs 0.8%), and communication (4.1% vs 3.2%). In contrast, price growth slowed for food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.3% vs 5.8%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (0.9% vs 1.0%), and health (1.1% vs 2.5%), while costs dropped for clothing and footwear (-0.8% vs 0.7%) and furnishings, household equipment and maintenance (-0.1% vs 1.6%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged down 0.1%, marking the second straight month of decline but easing from a 0.7% fall in August. Core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, ticked down to 2.2% in September from a nineteen-month high of 2.3% in August.

Palm Oil Pulls Back But Heads for Solid Weekly Gain: Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower to below MYR 4,600 per tonne, snapping a three-session winning streak as markets reacted to monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. End-of-September stocks rose 7.2% from the prior month to a near two-year high of 2.36 million metric tons, while exports grew 7.69% to 1.43 million tons. In India, the world’s largest consumer, demand in October is expected to fall below 600,000 tons as festive buying peaks, after sinking nearly 16% in September. A further decline in crude oil prices and a prolonged U.S. government closure, now in its ninth day, also weighed on sentiment. Still, palm oil is set for a second straight weekly gain, up about 3% so far, supported by Indonesia—the world’s top producer—planning to roll out B50 biodiesel in 2026 and launch 10% bioethanol in gasoline to curb emissions and reduce fuel imports. Meanwhile, output fell 0.73% in September to 1.84 million tons, marking the first fall in three months, industry data showed.

South Korea 10-Year Yield Rises to 3-Month High: South Korea’s 10-year bond yield rose toward 3% in early October, reaching its highest level since July 10, amid cautious remarks from the Bank of Korea and broader market enthusiasm. The central bank noted that while financial markets remained broadly stable during the holiday, risk factors had slightly increased due to global uncertainties, coupled with ongoing domestic risks. The BOK’s signal of vigilance suggests a balanced approach to interest rates. This follows the policymakers’ decision to hold rates for a second meeting in August, highlighting concerns over Seoul’s housing market, rising household debt, and a measured approach to easing. The latest economic data also showed a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP, further limiting the BOK’s ability for aggressive easing ahead of the next rate decision later this month.

Silver Set for Eighth Straight Weekly Gain: Silver climbed above $50 per ounce on Friday, after hitting a record high of $51.30 in the previous session, and was poised for its eighth straight weekly gain amid strong safe-haven demand and ongoing supply constraints. The metal has soared more than 70% this year—outpacing gold—as investors react to growing US fiscal risks, expectations of lower interest rates, concerns over Federal Reserve independence, and mounting global debt pressures. Political uncertainty stemming from the US government shutdown, unrest in France, and leadership changes in Japan has further fueled demand. At the same time, a shortage of freely available silver in the London market has added upward pressure on prices. With demand spanning both investment and industrial uses—from solar panels to wind turbines—silver consumption is projected to exceed supply for a fifth consecutive year in 2025.

Dollar Set for Best Week in a Year: The dollar index held above 99.3 on Friday and was on track to rise nearly 2% for the week, marking its strongest weekly advance in a year, supported by sharp weakness in the yen and euro. The yen is poised to drop almost 4% against the dollar this week after fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi won Japan’s leadership race, reinforcing expectations of higher spending and loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, the euro has fallen about 1.5% versus the dollar amid political turmoil in France, where President Emmanuel Macron continues to search for his sixth prime minister in less than two years. In the US, the government shutdown extended into its ninth day after the Senate failed to reach a funding deal, delaying key economic data that could guide the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut outlook. Markets now see a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut this month, while odds for a December move have eased to 80% from 90%.

Brent Extends Losses: Brent crude oil futures fell toward $63 per barrel on Friday, extending losses from the previous session as geopolitical risk premiums eased amid Middle East developments. Israel and Hamas have recently agreed on the first phase of a ceasefire plan, a major breakthrough in US and Qatari mediated talks aimed at ending the two-year conflict. Nevertheless, oil prices remained on track for a weekly gain, supported by news that the US sanctioned over 50 individuals, firms, and vessels tied to Iran’s energy trade, including a key import terminal and a Chinese refinery. US crude inventories also rose for a second consecutive week but stayed near seasonal lows, while Cushing and refined product stocks fell, according to EIA data. Early in the week, OPEC+ opted for a restrained production increase, the lowest among options discussed, falling short of market expectations for a more aggressive hike.

Oil Extends Losses: WTI crude oil futures fell to below $60 per barrel on Friday, extending losses from the previous session as geopolitical risk premiums eased amid Middle East developments. Israel and Hamas have recently agreed on the first phase of a ceasefire plan, a major breakthrough in US and Qatari mediated talks aimed at ending the two-year conflict. Nevertheless, oil prices remained on track for a weekly gain, supported by news that the US sanctioned over 50 individuals, firms, and vessels tied to Iran’s energy trade, including a key import terminal and a Chinese refinery. US crude inventories also rose for a second consecutive week but stayed near seasonal lows, while Cushing and refined product stocks fell, according to EIA data. Early in the week, OPEC+ opted for a restrained production increase, the lowest among options discussed, falling short of market expectations for a more aggressive hike.

Jordan Inflation Rate at 3-Month High: The annual inflation rate in Jordan accelerated for the first time in three months to 1.74% in September 2025, up from August’s nine-month low of 1.32%. This marked the highest inflation rate since June, mainly due to a rebound in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.48% vs -0.36% in August). Prices also accelerated for housing (2.50% vs 2.49%), transportation (1.00% after being flat in August), other goods and services (2.50% vs 2.33%), and household furnishing & equipment (0.75% vs 0.65%). Meanwhile, prices moderated for clothing and footwear (2.48% vs 1.57%), restaurant & hotels (0.67% vs 1.70%), health (0.18% vs 0.71%), education (1.17% vs 1.84%), communication (2.50% vs 2.60%), and alcohol and tobacco (5.75% vs 12.41%). By contrast, recreation and culture prices continued to decline (-0.59% vs -1.00%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat in September, after declining 0.21% in August, marking the first monthly increase in three months.

U.S. Hits Iran-Linked Firms, China Blacklists Foreign Companies: The U.S. on Thursday imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals, entities, and vessels accused of aiding Iran’s oil and petrochemical trade, the Trump administration said. The Treasury Department penalized China’s Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group, an independent refinery that reportedly purchased millions of barrels of Iranian oil since 2023, and Rizhao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal, which received over a dozen sanctioned Iranian tankers. The sanctions coincided with Israel and Hamas agreeing to a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal. In a related move, China added Dedrone by Axon, TechInsights Inc., and others to its list of unreliable entities, citing actions that allegedly harmed its national sovereignty, security, and development interests. The Commerce Ministry called the measures a “necessary and lawful” response to the firms’ misconduct.