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Wall Street Rallies as Trump Eases US-China Trade Fears: US Stocks main indexes closed sharply higher on Monday, rebounding from Friday’s steep sell-off after President Trump struck a softer tone on US-China trade tensions, assuring that relations with Beijing “will all be fine.” The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.6% and 2.2%, respectively, while Dow Jones jumped 588 points, as investors rushed back into risk assets following Trump’s comments. His remarks helped ease fears of an escalating trade war after last week’s threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods wiped out roughly $2 trillion in market value. Gains were led by technology stocks, with Nvidia and AMD rising 2.9% and 0.8%, Oracle soaring 5.1%, and Broadcom surging 9.9% after confirming its AI partnership with OpenAI. Still, investors remained cautious amid a prolonged government shutdown and delayed economic data releases, while attention turned to the kickoff of earnings season, with major banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup set to report results this week.

Paraguay Trade Deficit Widens to 9-Month High: Paraguay’s trade deficit widened to $613.2 million in September 2025 from $595.9 million a year earlier, marking the largest shortfall since December 2024. Imports surged 25.6% to $1.55 billion, led by sharp increases in purchases of capital goods (46.6%), consumer goods (26.4%), and intermediate goods (1.6%). Exports also rose but at a slower pace, climbing 13.3% to $940.9 million. Shipments were higher for manufactured products of agribusiness origin (28%), manufactured industrial goods (8.9%), primary products (4.1%), and fuels and energy (1.6%).

Uruguay Industrial Output Falls Sharply in August: Uruguay’s manufacturing output contracted 6.3% year-on-year in August 2025, reversing the 4.2% increase recorded in July. The sharpest drag came from petroleum refining, which plunged 46% amid a partial shutdown at ANCAP’s José Ignacio oil buoy for maintenance. Food manufacturing and motor vehicle output also declined, by 5% and 45%, respectively. Offsetting part of the fall, pharmaceutical production grew 5.9%, while electrical equipment and chemical manufacturing rose 20.3% and 2%. Meanwhile, the Index of Hours Worked fell 8.5%, and the Index of Employed Personnel decreased 2.8%.

Brazil Industrial Confidence Rises Slightly in October: Brazil's Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) rose to 47.2 in October 2025, up from 41.9 in September, signaling a mild improvement in sentiment but still below the 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism. The Current Conditions Index reached 43.2, reflecting better assessments of both company conditions (46.5, +1.3 points) and the Brazilian economy (36.7, +1.4 points). Meanwhile, the Expectations Index increased for the third consecutive month to 49.1 (from 48.3), indicating that confidence about the next six months remains cautious but less negative. Business owners reported improved expectations for the economy (41.0, +1.5 points) and slightly greater optimism regarding their own companies (53.2, +0.5 points).

DAX Ends Higher: Germany's DAX finished about 0.6% firmer at 24,375 on Monday, supported by easing international tensions and the start of earnings season, with investors also eyeing Trump’s trade reversals and France’s political developments. Trump unexpectedly signaled he may soften his tariff plans against China, after announcing on Friday an additional 100% tariff and new export controls on “any and all critical software” starting November 1, in response to Beijing’s restrictions on rare earth exports. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet in an effort to contain a growing political crisis, reappointing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. Among stocks, Siemens Energy (+2.4%), Fresenius Medical Care (+2.2%), Infineon Technologies (+1.8%) and Siemens (+1.6%) were the top gainers. On the downside, Commerzbank (-0.9%) and Bayer (-0.8%) posted the biggest declines.

UK Stocks End Slightly Higher: The FTSE 100 closed about 0.2% up at 9,443 on Monday, halting a two-day losing streak, led by precious and industrial miners on rising gold and copper prices. Endeavour Mining surged 12% and Fresnillo rose 8.8%, while Antofagasta, Anglo American, and Glencore gained 5.1%, 3.6%, and 3.4%, respectively. Lloyds Banking added 0.9% after announcing it would set aside an additional £800 million to cover compensation costs tied to the motor finance mis-selling scandal. This follows last week’s FCA ruling requiring lenders to pay £11bn after finding widespread failings in disclosing commissions and broker ties on agreements from April 2007 to November 2024. Conversely, defense stocks saw losses, with Babcock International and BAE Systems down 2.2% and 1.5%, likely tied to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. AstraZeneca gave up earlier gains and fell 0.5% after the company agreed to lower select US drug prices for three years of tariff relief, a deal promoted by President Trump to ease medicine costs.

Lumber Rises Amid Looming Tariffs: Lumber futures rose past $610 per thousand board feet in mid-October, approaching monthly highs as markets priced in tighter near-term supply and looming trade restrictions. Under newly announced US Section 232 tariffs that take effect on October 14th, imported softwood lumber will face a 10% duty and finished wood goods such as cabinets and furniture will face higher levies, prompting importers to front-load purchases and draw down inventories. Domestic output is also constrained as sawmills run cautiously after years of underinvestment, logging curbs in sensitive regions and slow capacity restarts have limited production. The cost and delay of switching suppliers is material given that Canadian lumber, which supplies much of US demand, already carries elevated antidumping and countervailing duties, intensifying the supply squeeze.

European Stocks Start Week on Positive Note: European stocks advanced on Monday, with the Stoxx 50 up 0.5% and the Stoxx 600 gaining 0.3%, supported by a rebound in mining shares after President Donald Trump said trade relations with China “will all be fine.” The Stoxx 600 Basic Materials Index rose 2.4%, with Fresnillo jumping 9.5%, Antofagasta 5.1%, Aurubis 3.7%, and Anglo American over 3%, as Trump’s comments eased fears of a steep tariff hike on Chinese goods. Semiconductor maker ASML climbed 3.2% after the Dutch government took control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned firm, to safeguard chip supplies amid rising trade tensions. In banking, Lloyds rose nearly 1% after setting aside an additional £800 million for car finance mis-selling compensation, bringing its total provisions to £2 billion. AstraZeneca slipped 0.3% after agreeing to lower US drug prices in exchange for tariff relief. In France, newly reappointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu named Roland Lescure as finance minister ahead of new budget plans.

US Natgas Prices Hover at 3-Week Low: US natural gas futures traded around $3.1/MMBtu, hovering near a three-week low, as mild weather forecasts and robust storage levels eased concerns over supply tightness. Updated outlooks showed warmer-than-normal conditions through late October, curbing expectations for heating demand. NatGasWeather said that significant cooling may not arrive until the final week of the month. According to LSEG, gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 106.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from September’s 107.4 bcfd and below the August record of 108.0 bcfd. The earlier surge in output enabled above-average storage injections, leaving inventories about 4% higher than normal for this time of year. Meanwhile, LNG exports remained a key source of support, with average flows to US liquefaction plants rising to 16.3 bcfd in October and daily feedgas hitting a six-month high of 17.0 bcfd after Berkshire Hathaway’s Cove Point terminal resumed operations following maintenance.

Baltic Dry Index Shots Up on US-China Tensions: The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, was up for a second day, jumping about 10.7% to its highest since September 29 at 2,144 points, mainly boosted by the bigger-size segment. Global shipping costs are set to increase as the US and China roll out reciprocal port fees on each other’s vessels starting October 14, heightening fears of major disruption to the global economy. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, extended gains for a third day, climbing 21.2% to a peak since September 29 at 3,392 points. At the same time, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose 42 points to 1,806 points. On the other hand, the supramax index eased 2 points to 1,400 points.

Russian Trade Surplus Narrows in August: Russia’s trade surplus narrowed to $7.47 billion in August 2025, down from $8.65 billion a year earlier. Exports fell 8.9% year-on-year to $31.53 billion, the lowest level since January, mainly due to weaker demand from China, which cut its crude oil purchases during the month. Imports also dropped by 7.3% to $24.06 billion, reflecting subdued domestic demand and the impact of Western sanctions that continue to limit access to foreign goods and technology.

Germany Current Account Surplus Narrows Sharply in August: Germany’s current account surplus declined to €8.3 billion in August 2025 from €15.4 billion a year earlier, weighed down by weaker export performance. The goods surplus narrowed to €10.6 billion from €17.2 billion, as exports fell 5.8% to €99.2 billion while imports edged up 0.6% to €88.6 billion. The primary income surplus eased slightly to €13.8 billion from €14.0 billion, and the secondary income deficit widened to €5.9 billion from €5.1 billion. Partially offsetting these trends, the services deficit narrowed to €10.2 billion from €10.7 billion. Over the first eight months of 2025, the current account surplus totaled €134.6 billion, down from €178.5 billion in the same period last year.

Oil Rebounds from 5-Month Low: WTI crude oil futures rose more than 2.5% to near $60 per barrel on Monday, rebounding from a five-month low as hopes for eased US–China trade tensions lifted sentiment. The recovery followed remarks from President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, who adopted a softer tone toward Beijing after announcing new 100% tariffs and export controls last week. Trump suggested the US could still “be fine with China,” though the planned tariffs for November 1 remain in place. He also hinted at supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, a move that could heighten risks to oil supplies from OPEC+ producers. Despite the rebound, oil prices remain pressured by rising supply, as OPEC and its partners boosted output by 630,000 barrels per day in September, raising fears of a supply glut later this year. Additionally, a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas eased geopolitical risks in the Middle East after Hamas released all remaining Israeli hostages from Gaza.

French 10-Year OAT Yield Holds at One-Month Low: The yield on France’s 10-year OAT hovered around 3.46%, holding its lowest level in a month, as President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet to contain a mounting political crisis. Sébastien Lecornu was reappointed last Friday, four days after his resignation, and has been tasked with submitting a revised budget. Failure to pass the budget could push the 2026 deficit to around 6%, up from the projected 5.4% for this year. However, the government could face a no-confidence vote in parliament later this week, increasing uncertainty over France’s fiscal outlook. On the macro front, market-implied probabilities of a 25-basis-point European Central Bank rate cut by July have risen to roughly 55%, compared with about 45% earlier, before President Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.

Sensex Ends Slightly Down: India's BSE Sensex closed about 0.2% down at 82,327.1 on Monday, as investors remained cautious, with focus on Q2 corporate results, domestic CPI inflation, US shutdown and trade uncertainties. IT lagged, consumption and discretionary sectors faced profit booking, and financials drew selective buying on regulatory easing. Meanwhile, President Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1 unsettled global markets over the weekend, though he later signaled a more conciliatory stance toward China. In the meantime, there were reports of India and the US ticking to a fall 2025 deadline for the first part of a trade deal between the countries. Among equities, Tata Motors, Infosys, Hindustan Unilever, Bharat Electricals, ITC, and Power Grid were the biggest laggards; while Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank and NTPC posted the largest gains.

UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Falls to Over 3-Week Low: The UK 10-year gilt yield dropped to 4.652%, its lowest in over three weeks, as investors grew cautious ahead of November’s budget and rising concerns over the country’s debt outlook. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves faces the challenge of balancing fiscal discipline with supporting growth, amid expectations of further tax hikes following her earlier £25 billion increase in employer social contributions. Analysts predict only modest growth through year-end but see inflation climbing to 4%, double the Bank of England’s target. Investors are watching upcoming employment, wage, and GDP data for clues on interest rate direction ahead of the BoE’s November 6 meeting. Money markets anticipate no rate change, with the first cut not expected until March. Persistent inflation, especially in wages and services, remains a concern. Meanwhile, global sentiment improved slightly as President Trump softened his tariff threats toward Beijing, hinting at renewed trade talks.

Sterling Weakens Slightly: The British pound slipped to $1.333, weighed down by a stronger US dollar and investor caution ahead of the UK’s November budget. Markets are concerned that potential tax hikes aimed at meeting fiscal goals could further strain the fragile UK economy. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to emphasize fiscal discipline in her November 26 budget, possibly through higher taxes, following her earlier £25 billion increase in employer social contributions. Analysts foresee modest growth for the rest of 2025, with inflation projected to reach 4%, twice the Bank of England’s target. Investors are closely watching upcoming UK data on employment, wages, and GDP to gauge the outlook for interest rates. The BoE meets next on November 6, with markets expecting no rate change and the first cut no earlier than March. Persistent inflation in wages and services remains a challenge. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened after President Trump softened his tariff stance toward Beijing.

Bund Yields Hover Near September Lows: Germany’s 10-year Bund yield inched up to 2.64% on Monday, staying near its lowest level since September 8, as investors closely watched political developments in France and ongoing US-China trade tensions. In France, Sébastien Lecornu—the nation’s fifth prime minister in two years—resigned last Monday only to be reappointed on Friday. He now faces a narrow path to political survival ahead of Monday’s draft budget bill deadline. To secure its passage through a fragmented parliament, Lecornu is seeking to persuade both the Socialists and center-right Republicans to either abstain or provide conditional support in the pivotal budget vote. Meanwhile, US President Trump adopted a more conciliatory stance toward China on Sunday, just two days after threatening 100% tariffs on Chinese imports in response to Beijing’s tightening of export controls on rare earth materials. On the monetary policy front, markets priced in about a 55% chance of a 25 bps ECB rate cut by July 2026.

CAC 40 Edges Higher Amid Political Uncertainty: The Paris CAC 40 rose 0.5% to around 7,960, as investors weighed lingering political uncertainty in France. President Emmanuel Macron reappointed Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister and announced a largely unchanged cabinet, but the move did little to dispel concerns about the government’s ability to push through key measures in a deeply divided parliament. The new cabinet is expected to present its budget proposal by Monday’s deadline, a potential test of its fragile political balance. On the international front, markets were buoyed by easing trade tensions after President Trump softened his stance on potential 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, saying the US does not want to “harm” China. Sector-wise, automakers led the advance, with Stellantis climbing 3.7% and Renault up 1.8%. Luxury stocks also posted strong gains, including Hermès (+2.2%), LVMH (+1.2%), and Kering (+2.1%). On the downside, Thales slipped 1.8%, one of the few decliners in the index.

Hang Seng Slips 1.5% at Finish: The Hang Seng dipped 401 points or 1.5% to end at 25,889 on Monday, marking a sixth session of losses as all sectors weighed on the index. Sentiment weakened further after President Trump announced Friday 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and new export controls on critical software starting Nov. 1, in retaliation for Beijing’s rare earth curbs. Traders shrugged off his later remarks that “trade relations with China will be fine.” Hong Kong's markets hit a one-month low, tracking a drop from decade highs in mainland stocks. Losses were offset by stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data showing both exports and imports rose strongly in September, while U.S. futures jumped ahead of earnings seasons. Xiaomi slumped 6.1% after news of a fire involving its SU7 car, and China Vanke fell 3.3% following its chairman’s resignation. Other laggards included HKEX (-3.2%), Meituan (-2.4%), and Tencent (-2.4%), while Zijin Mining surged 7.8% on record gold prices and a Kazakhstan mine acquisition.

FTSE 100 Trades Higher Led by Precious Miners, AstraZeneca: The FTSE 100 advanced on Monday, supported by strong gains in precious metals miners and AstraZeneca. Fresnillo traded 6.1% higher, and Endeavour Mining was 5.2% up due to a renewed surge in gold to fresh record highs and silver nearing $52. Base metal producers also benefited from higher metal prices, as Anglo American gained 2%, Antofagasta 1.9%, Glencore 1.3%, and Rio Tinto 1.1%. AstraZeneca added over 0.5% after agreeing to reduce certain US drug prices in exchange for three years of tariff relief, part of a deal highlighted by President Trump to lower consumer medicine costs. The company will price new US launches at parity with peer nations and expand discounted access through Medicaid. In financials, Lloyds Banking rose more than 1% after stating it would engage with the Financial Conduct Authority on its proposed motor finance compensation scheme, warning that estimated costs could exceed previous assumptions.

Indonesia Stocks Slip from Record High on US-China Trade Tensions: The IDX Composite fell 39 points, or 0.4%, to 8,218 around noon on Monday, retreating from its record peak touched on Friday amid renewed escalation in US-China trade tensions. Traders were worried following US President Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. Most sectors traded in the red, led by financials, manufacturing, and transportation. Moderating commodity prices also pressured market sentiment. Traders also awaited speeches from several Federal Reserve officials to gauge the central bank's monetary policy path in the upcoming meeting. However, fresh trade data from Indonesia’s key trading partner, China, capped the fall as both exports and imports rose more than expected in September. Among the biggest laggards were XL Axiata (-4.1%), Unilever (-2.9%), Perusahaan Gas Negara (-2.1%), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (-1.3%), and Bank Negara Indonesia (-1.3%).

European Stocks Kick Off the Week Higher: European stocks started the week in positive territory, with the STOXX 50 rising 0.9% and the STOXX 600 adding 0.6%, as traders geared up for the upcoming earnings season and largely brushed off trade tensions between the US and China. Following Friday’s threat by Washington to raise tariffs on China in response to Beijing’s rare earth export controls, US President Trump said on Sunday that the “China situation will all be fine.” Meanwhile, ASML and LVMH are among the major companies scheduled to release quarterly results this week. On the political front, French President Macron announced a new cabinet, reappointing Prime Minister Lecornu. Megacaps traded mostly higher, including SAP (+0.7%), LVMH (+1.2%), ASML Holding (+2.6%), and Hermès (+1.8%). Also, shares of AstraZeneca rose 0.7% after the drugmaker reached an agreement with the US administration on Friday to provide certain medicines to the government’s Medicaid program at discounted prices in exchange for tariff relief.

Steel Declines on Weak Construction Demand: Steel rebar futures fell below CNY 3,070 per ton on Monday, paring last week’s gains as sluggish construction activity in China continued to drag on demand. Prices also recently faced pressure after the EU announced plans to reduce tariff-free quotas on imported steel and double duties on excess imports from 25% to 50%. Meanwhile, China is tightening controls on new steel capacity to address persistent oversupply and depressed prices. Steel and iron ore remain key targets of Beijing’s anti-involution campaign, as the prolonged property slump weighs on ferrous metal consumption and heightens competition among mills for limited market share. Latest data showed Chinese exports and imports grew more than expected in September amid solid global and domestic demand, while steel exports jumped 10% to a four-month high of 10.47 million tons, defying expectations that rising global protectionism would curb shipments.

Turkey Current Account Surplus Hits All-Time High: Turkey's current account surplus widened to $5.4 billion in August 2025 from $4.9 billion in the same month of the previous year, slightly exceeding market expectations of a $5.3 billion surplus. This marked the largest monthly surplus on record since records began in 1984, as the services account surplus rose to $9.5 billion from $9.2 billion a year earlier. Moreover, the goods account deficit narrowed slightly to $2.8 billion from $2.9 billion, and the primary income shortfall decreased to $1.2 billion from $1.5 billion. Meanwhile, the secondary income deficit increased to $0.023 billion from $0.005 billion.

Iron Ore Slips Despite Strong China Trade Data: Iron ore futures fell below CNY 795 per ton on Monday, snapping a two-day rally despite stronger-than-expected trade data from top consumer China, as persistent weakness in the construction sector continued to dampen sentiment. Official data showed Chinese exports and imports rose more than anticipated in September, supported by robust global and domestic demand. Iron ore imports jumped 10.6% from the previous month to a record 116.33 million metric tons, as improving demand and higher prices encouraged miners to boost shipments. Meanwhile, China’s steel exports climbed 10% to a four-month high of 10.47 million tons, defying expectations that mounting global backlash against cheap Chinese steel would curb outbound sales.

Platinum Rises on Safe-Haven Demand: Platinum climbed above $1,640 per ounce on Monday, ending a two-day slide as renewed US-China trade concerns, political uncertainty, and expectations of further US rate cuts lifted demand for safe-haven assets. On Friday, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 in response to Beijing’s new export controls on rare earth minerals. The ongoing US government shutdown further weighed on sentiment, while markets expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut this month followed by another in December. Meanwhile, near-term demand for platinum in gasoline vehicle catalysts remains solid amid strong hybrid vehicle sales, despite the ongoing transition toward electric vehicles. The World Platinum Investment Council forecasts platinum mine supply to decline at a -1.5% compound annual growth rate between 2024 and 2029.

India 10Y Yield Holds Steady Ahead of CPI Data: The yield on India’s 10-year G-Sec traded around 6.52% on Monday, holding its recent gains, as investors awaited the upcoming September inflation figures due later today. Consumer prices are expected to ease to 1.70%, below the RBI’s 2–6% target range, keeping the July–September average at 1.7–1.8%. If the latest inflation print undershoots estimates, it could further raise hopes for potential interest rate cuts, putting modest downward pressure on yields. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted that lower inflation opens policy space, supporting market expectations of a December rate cut after pauses in August and October, with further easing possible in February. Meanwhile, investor caution lingered amid renewed US-China trade tensions after President Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% on Chinese goods. Domestically, a steep 50% tariff on Indian goods and tighter immigration policies under US measures also continued to weigh on sentiment.

German Wholesale Prices Rise the Most in 6 Months: Wholesale prices in Germany rose 1.2% year-on-year in September 2025, quickening from a 0.7% increase in the previous month and marking the 10th consecutive month of gains. It was also the fastest rise since March, driven by higher costs for food, beverages, and tobacco (4.2%), particularly coffee, tea, cocoa, and spices (22.2%), sugar and bakery products (14.5%), live animals (10.7%), meat and meat products (10.5%), and dairy, eggs, and oils (5.6%). Prices for non-ferrous ores and metals also surged 23.5%. By contrast, declines were recorded in processing and peripheral equipment (-4.6%), scrap and residues (-9.2%), grains, raw tobacco, seeds, and animal feed (-5.2%), as well as iron, steel, and semi-finished products (-4.1%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices rose 0.2%, in line with forecasts and rebounding from a 0.6% fall in August, marking the first monthly gain since June.

US Heating Oil Futures Rebound: US heating oil futures rose over 1% to around $2.23 per gallon, rebounding from an eight-week low, after President Donald Trump struck a more conciliatory tone toward China just two days after threatening new tariffs. His remarks followed a warning of an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, which had reignited fears of an escalating trade war that could weigh on global growth and energy demand. Adding further support, OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected output increase. The EIA’s latest outlook also projected that US distillate inventories will remain below average through 2026, constrained by strong export demand, reduced refining capacity, and large stock drawdowns earlier this year that saw inventories fall 17%, or roughly 22 million barrels, in the first half of 2025.

US Gasoline Rebounds from Multi-Year Lows: US gasoline futures rose more than 1% to $1.84 per gallon, rebounding from an over 4-1/2-year low hit on Friday, as US President Donald Trump sought to ease trade tensions with China. On Sunday, Trump said the US wants to help China and not hurt it, striking a more diplomatic tone two days after threatening an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods. On the supply side, OPEC+ announced last week it would raise output by a modest 137,000 bpd in November, staving off traders’ fears of a super-sized increase. However, the broader market outlook remains bearish amid a looming supply glut and a gloomy global economic outlook. On the geopolitical front, Trump declared on Sunday that the war in Gaza was over as he flew to the Middle East, where he will address the Israeli Knesset and co-chair a summit in Egypt on the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.

Palm Oil Slides Further as Week Begins: Malaysian palm oil futures fell around 1.7% on Monday, slipping below MYR 4,500 per tonne and marking the second session of sharp losses. A stronger ringgit and weakness in rival Dalian oils pressured sentiment. Industry data showed end-September inventories rose 7.2% from August to 2.36 million tonnes, the highest in near two years. Separately, Kuala Lumpur projects average crude palm oil prices in 2026 to range between MYR 3,900 and MYR 4,100, citing increased global supply and stronger output from competing oils. In top buyer India, October demand is expected to fall below 600,000 tonnes after a 16% drop in September. Still, losses were capped by strong exports, with Malaysian shipments rising 9.9–19.4% in the first 10 days of October, according to cargo surveyors. Output shrank 0.73% in September to 1.84 million tonnes, the first monthly drop in three months. Meanwhile, crude oil prices rebounded after President Trump softened his stance on China, signaling openness to trade talks.

Bitcoin Rebounds After Trump-Driven Rout: Bitcoin steadied around $115,000 on Monday after a sharp selloff last week, as US President Donald Trump walked back his threat to impose massive tariffs on China, saying in a Truth Social post that trade relations with the country “will all be fine.” On Friday, bitcoin plunged over 10% to below $110,000 after Trump warned of an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 in response to Beijing’s new export controls on rare earth minerals, triggering selloff across financial markets. China responded over the weekend, vowing to retaliate if the US follows through on the measures. However, tensions appeared to ease as officials from both sides issued conciliatory statements on Sunday, signaling a willingness to resume trade negotiations ahead of a possible Trump-Xi meeting later this month.

Silver Hits New All-Time High: Silver jumped more than 3% to above $52 per ounce on Monday, marking a new all-time high as renewed US-China trade concerns, political instability, and expectations of further US rate cuts fueled demand for safe-haven assets. On Friday, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 in response to Beijing’s new export controls on rare earth minerals. However, Trump later signaled openness to negotiate ahead of a possible meeting with President Xi Jinping later this month, saying that trade relations with China “will all be fine.” Broader geopolitical worries also supported prices, with the ongoing US government shutdown, political turmoil in France, and leadership uncertainty in Japan weighing on sentiment. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points this month and again in December, alongside a tightening physical silver supply in London, continued to bolster the metal’s rally.

China Export Growth Hits 6-Month High: Exports from China increased by 8.3% year-on-year to a seven-month high of USD 328.6 billion in September 2025, surpassing expectations for a 6% rise and accelerating from a 4.4% gain in August. This marked the fastest pace of outbound shipments since March, as producers found new markets beyond the United States, with a tariff deal with President Donald Trump remaining elusive. By destination, exports grew to Japan (1.8%), South Korea (7.0%), Taiwan (11.0%), Australia (10.7%), ASEAN (15.6%), and the EU (14.2%). In contrast, exports to the US slumped by 27.0%. Year-to-date, China’s exports rose 6.1% year-on-year, totaling USD 2.78 trillion. Over the same period, export growth was recorded in several key product categories, including agricultural products (1.4%), fertilizer (59.6%), ceramic products (0.8%), integrated circuits (23.3%), cars (10.8%), CD flat panel display modules (9.6%), and ships (21.4%). By contrast, rare earth exports fell 7.6% amid ongoing export restrictions.

China Trade Surplus Below Forecasts: China's trade surplus came in at USD 90.45 billion in September, below expectations of USD 98.96 billion but above the USD 81.69 billion recorded in the same month last year, as exports continued to outpace imports. Exports rose 8.3% yoy, beating forecasts for a 6% gain and accelerating from a 4.4% growth in August. This marked the fastest pace of export growth since March, as Chinese producers continued to diversify into new markets beyond the US. Imports grew by 7.4%, above expectations for a 1.5% rise and well above the 1.3% gain in August—marking the fastest import growth since April 2024, supported by stronger domestic demand ahead of the Golden Week holidays. China’s trade surplus with the US rose to USD 22.82 billion in September, up from USD 20.32 billion in August, even as both exports to and imports from the US fell by 27.0% and 16.1%, respectively. Year-to-date, China posted a total trade surplus of USD 875.1 billion, with exports rising 6.1% yoy, while imports fell by 1.1%.

Gold Hits All-Time High: Gold scaled an all-time peak of $4,090 per ounce on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand amid renewed US-China trade concerns, broader economic uncertainties, and expectations of further US interest rate cuts. President Trump on Friday threatened to impose extra levies of 100% on Chinese exports, along with new export controls on critical software from November 1. However, he softened his stance on Sunday, saying America wants to help China and not harm it. Beijing defended its rare earth export curbs and warned its readying countermeasures against any new US tariffs. Adding to market jitters, the US government shutdown has stretched into another week, with the White House moving ahead with mass layoffs of federal workers. Meanwhile, traders are widely expecting the Federal Reserve to deliver 25bps rate cuts at each of its remaining meetings this year. On the geopolitical front, Trump said on Sunday that the Gaza war has ended as he flew to Israel for the release of hostages.

Dollar Rises as US-China Trade Tensions Ease: The dollar index rose to above 99 on Monday, recouping losses from the previous session as President Donald Trump walked back his threat to impose massive tariffs on China, saying in a Truth Social post that trade relations with the country “will all be fine.” Vice President JD Vance echoed that view, noting the US is ready to negotiate if Beijing is “willing to be reasonable.” The index had fallen about 0.5% on Friday after Trump warned of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 in response to Beijing’s new export controls on rare earths and related technologies, reminding investors that trade tensions remain elevated. The dollar also firmed against the yen as markets reassessed the odds of LDP leader Sanae Takaichi becoming Japan’s next prime minister after Komeito exited the ruling coalition on Friday, while holding losses versus the euro after France unveiled a new cabinet line-up on Sunday.

Copper Rebounds as US-China Tensions Ease: Copper jumped nearly 3% toward $5 per pound on Monday, recovering part of Friday’s losses after US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that trade relations with China “will all be fine,” signaling openness to negotiate and meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. Copper had slumped more than 4% on Friday after Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 in response to Beijing’s new export controls on rare earths and related technologies, stoking fears of an escalating trade war that could curb global growth and metals demand. Meanwhile, supply pressures persisted as mine disruptions in Chile and Indonesia continued to limit output, with Chile’s Codelco recording its lowest monthly production in over two decades in August and output at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine still constrained following last month’s fatal accident.

Trump and Vance Signal Openness to China Talks: President Donald Trump’s administration on Sunday signaled openness to a trade deal with China, even as tensions escalated over Beijing’s new export controls. The gesture followed Trump’s Friday announcement of a sweeping 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1, in retaliation for China’s restrictions on rare earth exports. Vice-President J.D. Vance urged Beijing to “choose the path of reason,” arguing Trump holds more leverage if the dispute drags on. Trump struck a conciliatory tone on Truth Social: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!”

S&P Upgrades Egypt’s Rating to ‘B’; Fitch Affirms: S&P Global upgraded Egypt’s credit rating to ‘B’ on Friday, citing ongoing reforms that have driven a sharp rebound in GDP growth. Meanwhile, Fitch affirmed Egypt’s rating at ‘B’, highlighting the country’s relatively high growth potential and strong support from international partners. Fitch last upgraded Egypt’s rating in November 2024, when rising foreign investment and tighter monetary conditions helped strengthen the country’s finances. S&P’s latest upgrade is the first since Egypt began receiving financial support in March 2024. S&P also noted that Egypt’s strategic importance has increased amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza, which has contributed to continued financial backing from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members and other international partners. Both S&P and Fitch maintained a ‘stable’ outlook for Egypt. As of now, Moody’s credit rating for the country remains at ‘Caa1’ with a positive outlook.

US Futures Rise as Trump Softens Tariff Rhetoric: US stock futures climbed on Monday after President Donald Trump suggested he may scale back his threat to impose steep new tariffs on China, saying in a Truth Social post that trade relations with Beijing “will all be fine.” Vice President JD Vance echoed that message, adding the US is ready to negotiate if China is “willing to be reasonable.” The comments followed Friday’s sharp selloff, when Trump’s warning of a “massive” tariff hike triggered a broad market decline after Beijing announced new export controls on rare earths vital to semiconductor and electric vehicle production. The Dow dropped 1.9%, the S&P 500 slid 2.71%, and the Nasdaq plunged 3.56%, marking Wall Street’s worst session since April. Tech and chip stocks led losses, with Nvidia, AMD, and Tesla falling between 4.9% and 7.7%. Investors now await earnings results from major banks later this week, including from Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.