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IMF Warns Fed to Balance Rate Cuts with Inflation and Tariff Risks: The U.S. Federal Reserve could cut interest rates further this year but must balance weaker growth prospects with signs that disinflation is slowing, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters. She noted the U.S. economy had remained resilient, growing 3.8% in Q2 with solid consumer demand, even as hiring softened. Georgieva warned the inflation outlook could become “a bit more concerning” if persistent services inflation—still about 1% above pre-pandemic levels—coincides with greater pass-through of tariff costs. She added that consumers had not yet felt the full impact of President Trump’s tariff hikes as firms pre-stocked goods and absorbed costs through profit margins. The trade-weighted tariff rate now stands at around 17.5%, while the effective rate collected remains below 10%. However, she cautioned this may not last as some firms’ profit buffers shrink, particularly for lower-end consumer goods.

Agricultural Commodities Updates: Cocoa Drops by 3.60%: Top commodity losers are Cocoa (-3.60%), Butter (-2.34%) and Sugar (-1.98%). Gains are led by Coffee (2.30%) and Palm Oil (1.65%).

Metals Commodities Updates: Silver Gains by 2.42%: Top commodity gainers are Silver (2.42%), Platinum (1.44%) and Gold (1.02%). Biggest losers are Copper (-0.68%).

Energy Commodities Updates: Natural gas Drops by 4.57%: Top commodity losers are Natural gas (-4.57%), Ethanol (-3.74%) and Natural Gas UK GBP (-2.22%). Gains are led by Heating Oil (0.81%), Crude Oil WTI (0.79%) and Brent Crude Oil (0.76%).

Argentina Industrial Production Drops in August: Argentina’s industrial production fell 4.4% year-on-year in August 2025, a sharp reversal from July’s 9.3% rise. The decline was broad-based, affecting food and beverages (-2.4%), tobacco (-9.1%), textiles (-15.3%), clothing and footwear (-15.3%), oil refining, coke and nuclear fuel (-1.6%), chemical products and substances (-1.6%), rubber and plastic products (-1.6%), non-metallic mineral products (-3.9%), basic metallic industries (-3.9%), machinery and equipment (-12.8%), vehicles and vehicle parts (-5.9%), furniture and other manufacturing (-1.0%).

S&P 500, Nasdaq Push to Fresh Record Highs: US stocks extended their records on Wednesday, as technology shares led gains and investors parsed the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes for policy clues amid a prolonged government shutdown. The S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, while the Nasdaq advanced 1.1%, buoyed by strength in AI-linked megacaps and chipmakers, while the Dow finished flat. AMD rallied 11.3% on the session to gain over 40% since the start of the week as markets continued to assess the chip-producer’s deal with OpenAI, marking over $1 trillion for the ChatGPT maker in a series of circular deals. Micron jumped 5.9% while Nvidia, Oracle, and Amazon advanced over 2% each. Meanwhile, investors weighed the minutes from the FOMC’s last meeting confirmed that the group sees more rate cuts this year to alleviate a fragile labor market, although policymakers still head to elevated inflation. Meanwhile, Cisco advanced 2% on the release of a new AI chip for datacenters. Conversely, consumer defensive stocks and banks were lower.

TSX Rises Toward Record Highs: The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% to trade above 30,502 on Wednesday, pushing toward record territory as a commodity-led bid across miners and energy names coincided with a rally in US tech. Gold’s break above $4,000 an ounce lifted gold miners and explorers, while a firmer copper complex underpinned base-metal producers and processors. Top performers included Ivanhoe Mines (5.8%), First Quantum (4.4%), Barrick (2.1%), Agnico Eagle (2%) and Teck Resources (1.4%). Mega-cap Shopify rebounded 3.3% after yesterday’s pullback, and Celestica surged 7.2%. Separately, talks between Canadian officials and the White House produced assurances of fair tariff treatment for Canadian exporters, trimming a key tail risk, although US commitment to the trilateral trade framework with Mexico appeared less certain.

US 10-Year Yield Holds Narrow Range: The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was at 4.1% mark on Wednesday, remaining in a narrow range for the third session as markets awaited further catalysts on the lack of economic data from the US. The US government remained shut down as Congress held its impasse, preventing the release of major economic data used by markets and the Federal Reserve to gauge the economy. Consequently, the MOVE index held at near four-year lows even though minutes from the FOMC’s last meeting indicated the Fed should continue cutting rates this year to counter the labor market’s increasing fragility, recently evidenced by back-to-back contractions in ADP private payrolls. Still, a portion of the committee expressed caution on easing policy as inflation remains elevated. Concerns of sustained inflation and a weaker greenback drove foreign markets to pivot out of dollar assets into precious metals, aligned with the weaker auction for the 10-year note that sparked yields to trade at session highs.

Dollar Hits Over Two-Month High: The dollar index extended gains for a third consecutive session, rising above 98.9 on Wednesday to its highest level since early August, supported by weakness in other major currencies. The greenback strengthened most notably against the yen, amid expectations of large-scale fiscal stimulus in Japan under new government leadership. It also advanced against the Swiss franc and the euro, with the latter pressured by ongoing political turmoil in France. Meanwhile, minutes from the latest FOMC meeting indicated that Fed officials see increasing downside risks to employment, even as concerns about inflation persist. Around half of policymakers anticipated two additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut later this month, while the probability of a similar move in December stands at around 78%. Meanwhile, the government shutdown has entered its second week.

US Stocks Extend Record Highs: US stocks rose further to fresh records on Wednesdays as more deals among major AI companies and datacenter infrastructure extended tech's rally, while minutes from the FOMC confirmed the outlook of more rate cuts this year. The Nasdaq rose over 1% and S&P 500 jumped 0.7%, while the Dow rose a softer 0.3%. AMD rallied 10% on the session to gain over 40% since the start of the week as markets continued to assess the chip-producer’s deal with OpenAI, marking over $1 trillion for the ChatGPT maker in a series of circular deals. Micron jumped 4.5% while Nvidia, Oracle, and Amazon advanced over 2% each. Stocks also held their gains after minutes from the FOMC’s last meeting confirmed that the group sees more rate cuts this year to alleviate a fragile labor market, although policymakers still head to elevated inflation. Meanwhile, Cisco advanced over 2% on the release of a new AI chip for datacenters. Conversely, consumer defensive stocks and banks were lower.

Fed Flags Job Market Risks, Stays Cautious on Inflation: Most Federal Reserve officials noted that it was appropriate to move the federal funds rate toward a more neutral level, as they judged that downside risks to employment had increased. However, a majority still emphasized that the risks to the inflation outlook remained tilted to the upside, according to the latest FOMC minutes. In addition, most participants considered it likely that further policy easing would be appropriate over the remainder of the year, with around half of officials anticipating two additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. Officials continued to say they would weigh risks both to inflation and employment as they considered their next move. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25bps in September 2025, bringing it to the 4.00%–4.25% range, in line with expectations. It was the first reduction in borrowing costs since December.

Gold Rises to Record of $4,050: Gold surpassed $4,050 per ounce on Wednesday to extend its record as economic uncertainty and a dovish Federal Reserve continued to drive markets away from the dollar toward precious metals. The impasse between members of US Congress maintained the government shutdown in its second week, risking major layoffs for public workers. The shutdown also prevented economic data releases, magnifying the impact of pessimistic data from private sources, including back-to-back contractions on ADP payrolls and contractionary job indices in ISM PMI surveys. Consequently, minutes from the FOMC’s last meeting showed that policymakers are likely to continue cutting rates due to fragility in the labor market. Precious metals were also supported by concerns of sustained inflation, also voiced by the FOMC, which risked a sharper pivot away from dollar-denominated assets. The higher interest in gold drove China to offer custodian services for foreign investors, seizing the pessimism for dollar assets.

Silver Hits All Time High: Silver climbed was up more than 3% to almost reach $50 per ounce on Wednesday, an all time high as prolonged US government shutdown against a backdrop of increased geopolitical and economic uncertainty fueled demand for safe-haven assets. The shutdown entered its second week with no resolution in sight, darkening the economic outlook, delaying key data, and adding pressure on lawmakers to strike a deal. Markets also expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a quarter-point rate cut this month, with another likely in December. Elsewhere, political turbulence in Europe and Japan added to caution after the resignation of France’s prime minister and the election of “Abenomics” supporter Sanae Takaichi as Japan’s next leader. Meanwhile, robust physical demand from the solar and electronics sectors continued to underpin prices, with the Silver Institute forecasting a global supply deficit for the fifth straight year in 2025.

DAX Ends at Fresh Record High: Frankfurt's DAX closed about 0.9% firmer at 24,597 on Wednesday, an all-time high, mirroring European peers. Market sentiment was lifted by the EU’s new trade measures and plans to curb steel imports, though weak German data and political uncertainty in France limited the upside. Germany’s industrial output slumped 4.3% in August, the steepest drop since March 2022, far exceeding the expected 1% decline. Meanwhile, traders awaited the Fed minutes due later for policy guidance amid a lack of official data caused by the US government shutdown. Industrials, retailers, and banks led gains, while autos and chipmakers lagged. Thyssenkrupp jumped over 5% on the EU’s steel plan, alongside strong advances in Zalando (+5.3%), Siemens Energy (+3.3%), and Adidas (+3.3%). On the downside, BMW slid more than 8% after a profit warning and concerns that higher steel tariffs could raise costs for automakers. Mercedes-Benz Group, Porsche Automobil, Volkswagen and Daimler Truck followed closely.

European Stocks Close at Record Highs: European stocks closed at record highs on Wednesday, erasing losses from the two previous sessions with strong support from banks and industrial giants as markets assessed the impact of fresh tariffs from the EU. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 jumped 0.8% to 5,656 and the pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.8% to 574. Heavyweight financial companies led the gains on the session, tracking the strong session for key government bonds in the currency bloc as markets reassessed fiscal risks on the EU amid the political crisis in France and additional debt taken by Germany. Allianz, Santander, UniCredit, AXA, and BBVA gained between 2% and 1.8%. Luxury brands and industrial giants were also higher, with Siemens, LVMH, Hermes, and Safran rising more than 1.5%. In the meantime, the EU announced plans to cut tariff-free quotas on imported steel shortly after raising tariffs on the metal to 50%. Steelmakers ArcelorMittal and ThyssenKrupp soared 6.6% and 4.7%, but auto makers recorded sharp losses.

Gasoline Extends Rebound from 5-Year Low: Gasoline futures in the US rose to $1.9 per gallon from the over five-year low of $1.85 on October 2nd amid a softer surplus in crude oil feedstock and refining capacity shortages. OPEC+ nations delivered a softer output hike than markets had expected earlier in the month as Saudi Arabia's move to reconquer market share clashed against Russia's effort to prevent a sharper decline in hydrocarbon prices. Meanwhile, nearly 40% of Russia's refining infrastructure was offline due to aging infrastructure and drone attacks from Ukraine, forcing the major oil hub to ramp up imports of refined fuel from Belarus by 40% year-to-date. Fresh data from the EIA showed that gasoline stocks in the US fell by 1.6 million barrels on the week ending October 3rd, more than expected. This was opposite to signs from major fuel consumers elsewhere, as ten-year-high levels of oil-in-transit by tankers continued to stoke concerns of surpluses in the global oil and gasoline market.

Oil Extends Gains after EIA Data: WTI crude oil futures rose 1.5% to $62.65 per barrel after EIA data showed a sharp drawdown in inventories at the key Cushing, Oklahoma hub. Stockpiles there fell by 763,000 barrels last week, the largest decline since June, while nationwide crude inventories increased more than expected but remain close to seasonal lows. The report also showed lower holdings of refined oil products, signaling stronger demand. Still, broader price gains were limited by expectations of abundant global supply. OPEC+ continues to ramp up production, and US crude output is projected to reach record highs this year. Meanwhile, Russian exports remain near a 16-month peak, even as drone strikes by Ukraine disrupt refining capacity and reduce domestic processing. In corporate developments, Exxon Mobil signed preliminary agreements to explore Iraq’s massive Majnoon oil field, marking the company’s return to the country after a nearly two-year hiatus and signaling renewed investment in upstream opportunities.

Heating Oil Extends Rebound: US heating oil futures climbed past $2.28 per gallon, rebounding from an 11-week low of $2.24 on October 3rd, after a concentrated tightening of the distillate complex and rising crude oil feedstock costs. Data showed roughly a 2-million-barrel draw in distillate stocks in the week to October 3rd, stripping an already thin inventory buffer and reducing immediate availability. Simultaneously, planned maintenance and unplanned outages removed about 1–1.2 million bpd of refining capacity into early October, curbing product output as the market entered the October–March heating season. Those dynamics narrowed the prompt distillate balance, lifted diesel/heating-oil crack spreads and refinery margins. Meanwhile, with crude finding support after OPEC+ signalled only a modest November increase, upward pressure was compounded.

US Crude Oil Inventories Rise More than Expected: EIA: Crude oil inventories in the US rose by 3.715 million barrels in the week ending October 3, more than market expectations of 2.25-million. At the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub, crude stocks fell by 763,000 barrels, the most since June. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks fell by 1.6 million barrels, above expectations for a 1.05-million-barrel decrease. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, went down 2.018 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a 1.23 million-barrel decrease.

US Natgas Prices Fall from 11-Week High: US natural gas futures fell over 4% to $3.3/MMBtu on Wednesday, retreating after two sessions of gains that pushed prices to an 11-week high. Output in the Lower 48 states averaged 106.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record 108.0 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, production was on track to hit a 13-week low of 104.7 bcfd. Still, strong output earlier this year enabled larger-than-usual injections into storage, leaving inventories about 5% above the seasonal norm. Weather forecasts point to mostly average conditions through October 23, though cooler conditions over the next two weeks could lift heating demand. Meanwhile, gas flows to the eight major US LNG export facilities have averaged 16.1 bcfd this month, up from 15.7 bcfd in September.

Wheat Remains Under Pressure on Strong Supply Outlook: Wheat futures hovered just below $5.10 per bushel, holding near their lowest level since September 8, as expectations of abundant global supply weighed on prices and the ongoing US government shutdown disrupted key agricultural data releases, leaving markets without clear direction. Top producer Russia is expected to accelerate wheat shipments after a slow export pace earlier in the season boosted demand for US supplies. Consultancy Sovecon raised its estimate for Russia’s September wheat exports by 0.3 million metric tons to 4.6 million and projected October shipments at around 5 million tons. Meanwhile, upcoming harvests in major southern hemisphere exporters such as Argentina and Australia are shaping up better than initially expected, following strong output across the northern hemisphere. Improved rainfall in parts of the Black Sea region and the US Midwest has also enhanced early prospects for next year’s crop.

Baltic Dry Index Rises for 3rd Day: The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for vessels transporting dry commodities, advanced for a third day on Wednesday, rising 16 points to its highest since October 1 at 1,963 points. The capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, extended gains for a fourth day, adding 39 points to an over one-week high of 2,924 points. At the same time, the panamax index, which usually carries 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, rose 30 points to its highest since October 1 at 1,695 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index eased 14 points to an over one-month low of 1,411 points.

Italy 10-Year BTP Yield Near Three-Week Low: The yield on Italy’s 10-year BTP fell toward 3.5%, its lowest level since mid-September, tracking a broader decline in European borrowing costs after an early-week surge, as concerns over France’s political situation eased slightly. Caretaker French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu expressed cautious optimism, suggesting a budget deal could be reached by year-end, which would reduce the likelihood of a snap election. On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank’s signal that interest rates are likely to remain on hold has helped stabilize markets, with investors increasingly expecting the ECB to leave rates unchanged later this month.

Gasoline Rebounds from 5-Year Low: Gasoline futures in the US rose to over $1.9 per gallon from the over five-year low of $1.85 touched on October 2nd amid the view of a softer surplus in crude oil feedstock, refining capacity shortages, and the outlook of storage pressure in major hubs. OPEC+ nations delivered a softer output hike than markets had expected earlier in the month as Saudi Arabia's move to reconquer market share clashed against Russia's effort to prevent a sharper decline in hydrocarbon prices. Meanwhile, nearly 40% of Russia's refining infrastructure was offline due to aging infrastructure and drone attacks from Ukraine, forcing the major oil hub to ramp up imports of refined fuel from Belarus by 40% year-to-date. Fresh data from the API indicated a sharp drop in US gasoline inventories earlier in October. This was opposite to signs from major fuel consumers elsewhere, as ten-year-high levels of oil-in-transit by tankers continued to stoke concerns of surpluses in the global oil and gasoline market.

Tin Eases from 6-Month High: Tin futures in the UK eased to $36,500 per tonne, easing from the six-month high of $36,685 on October 3rd as risks to demand momentarily offset mounting supply concerns. The EU reduced import quotas for steel in its latest tariff package while leading indicators in the US, EA, and China continued to raise doubts on whether manufacturing would gain traction this year, limiting demand for tin coating in a wide variety of goods. Still, supply in Key Southeast Asian hubs remained low. The Maw Mine in Myanmar remained in suspension, limiting hopes that authorities were eager to restart production. This was consistent with bottlenecks linked to the region's rainy season, magnified by the destruction of infrastructure following the country's aggressive earthquake. The main alternatives were also pressured after Indonesian President Subianto ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Sumatra, lowering the output from the world's second largest supplier.

US Mortgage Applications Fall for 2nd Week: The volume of mortgage applications in the United States declined by 4.7% in the week ending October 3rd, extending the 12.7% drop recorded in the previous period, as the recent uptick in mortgage rates continued to deter prospective buyers. Applications for mortgage refinancing, which tend to be more sensitive to short-term interest rate movements, fell by 8%, while applications for home purchases eased by 1%. Meanwhile, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances (of up to $806,500) edged down to 6.43% from 6.46% the previous week, remaining above the one-year low of 6.34% reached in mid-September. Amid ongoing uncertainty over the trajectory of U.S. borrowing costs, more buyers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). These accounted for 9.5% of total applications last week, up from 8.4% a week earlier.

US Stocks Set to Recover: US stock futures traded higher on Wednesday, with contracts on the three major indexes up about 0.2%, rebounding from the previous session’s losses that ended the S&P 500’s seven-session winning streak. Investors largely shrugged off concerns over the government shutdown and turned their attention to corporate developments. Focus is also on the FOMC minutes due later in the day, which could offer fresh insights into the outlook for interest rates. In premarket trading, Tesla gained 0.6% after plunging 4.5% on Tuesday, following the launch of new Model 3 and Model Y versions priced below $40K in the US. AMD rose 1.4%, extending its rally into a third straight session. On the downside, Oracle remained under pressure, adding to a 2.5% drop in the previous session. Among megacaps, performance was mixed: Nvidia (+0.7%), Microsoft (+0.1%), and Amazon (+0.7%) advanced, while Meta and Broadcom traded near the flatline, and Apple (-0.3%) and Alphabet (-0.2%) edged lower.

French 10-Year OAT Yields Ease Amid Turmoil: The yield on France’s 10-year OAT fell to 3.50%, easing from nearly 3.6% earlier in the week when markets first reacted to the unexpected resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. Investor anxiety over France’s political turmoil has since moderated as attention turns to ongoing budget negotiations. Although President Emmanuel Macron faces growing pressure to call early elections or step down, Lecornu indicated on Wednesday that a parliamentary dissolution was unlikely, noting that discussions with other parties showed a general willingness to approve a budget by year-end. Elsewhere, weaker-than-expected German industrial production data weighed on sentiment, while the continued US government shutdown raised concerns that key economic releases used by the Federal Reserve to guide policy decisions could face further delays.

US Mortgage Rates Edge Down: MBA: The average contract interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) in the US edged down to 6.43% in the week ending October 3rd, 2025, from 6.46% the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. “With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally declined, with the exception of a modest increase for FHA refinance applications,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP. A year earlier, interest rates were slightly lower at 6.36%. Meanwhile, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $806,500) increased to 6.6% from 6.54%. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 6.19% from 6.24%.

Sensex Snaps 4-Day Rally: India’s BSE Sensex closed about 0.2% down at 81,774 after a volatile session on Wednesday, as investors engaged in profit-booking after four consecutive sessions of gains. Investor caution prevailed amid global uncertainties and ahead of the Q2 earnings season, as market participants reassessed valuations and growth prospects. Sector performance was mixed, with auto, banking, and FMCG facing selling pressure, while IT stocks outperformed on optimism ahead of Tata Consultancy Services’ Thursday earnings release. Shares of Tata Motors fell over 2.5%, weighing on the broader auto sector, after luxury unit Jaguar Land Rover forecast a drop in Q2 volumes. On the upside, Titan jumped more than 4% following a stronger-than-expected pre-quarterly update. It was followed by Infosys, TCS, HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra, with gains ranging between 1.2% and 2.4%.

US Heating Oil Futures Rebound from 11-Week Low: US heating oil futures climbed to $2.28 per gallon, rebounding from an 11-week low of $2.24 on October 3, amid persistent concerns over tight distillate supplies ahead of winter and a smaller-than-expected OPEC+ production hike. The group agreed to raise output by just 137,000 barrels per day in November, far below market forecasts. Meanwhile, the EIA’s latest outlook indicated that US distillate inventories will stay below average through 2026, pressured by strong exports, refinery closures, and significant stock draws earlier this year. Inventories fell by 17%, or about 22 million barrels, in the first half of 2025. Demand for distillate fuel oil rose 5% as renewable diesel and biodiesel output slumped 35% year-on-year. Looking ahead, further refinery closures in Houston and California are likely to keep supply tight well into 2026.

Aluminum Rises to 3-Year High: Aluminum futures rose past $2,750 per tonne in October, the highest in over three years, amid tight supply and bullish bets on longer-term demand. Chinese authorities cut their annual output growth target for base metals to an average of 1.5% annually for 2025 and 2026, compared to the 5% target previously. The curb was in line with the China's aluminum output cap of 45 million tons, which is set to be breached this year under current capacity, amid Beijing's anti-involution campaign to slow capacity for manufacturers in an effort to control deflationary pressures. Elsewhere, Alcoa announced it will shut its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to deteriorating bauxite or grades. In the meantime, bets of aluminum consumption in the longer term were supported by corporate pledges of expenditure in new data centers, which take a large volume of aluminum. The sharp expansion in Chinese manufacturing per the broader private PMI also supported the outlook for goods production.

European Shares Rebound: European stocks advanced on Wednesday, snapping a two-session losing streak, with the STOXX 50 up 0.4% and the STOXX 600 rising 0.5% to a record high. Steelmakers where among the top gainers after the EU announced plans to cut tariff-free quotas on imported steel and raise tariffs on excess imports from 25% to 50%. Shares of ThyssenKrupp jumped 5.6%, ArcelorMittal gained 4.3%, and SSAB added 4.2%. Investor sentiment was also supported by corporate updates. Banking stocks outperformed, with Lloyds up 2.6% following reports that it may face lower-than-expected compensation costs for unfair loan deals. ABB climbed 1.7% after SoftBank agreed to acquire the firm’s robotics division. In contrast, the auto sector lagged, as BMW fell over 4% after cutting its 2025 earnings forecast and Mercedes-Benz lost around 3%. Technology shares also retreated, with ASML Holding down nearly 3% after reports that US lawmakers are pushing for broader restrictions on chipmaking equipment exports to China.

German Bund Yields Fall on Weak Industrial Data and Political Risks: The yield on Germany’s 10-year Bund fell to 2.68%, its lowest level since September 17, as investors absorbed weaker-than-expected German industrial data while monitoring political developments in France and the US. German industrial production tumbled 4.3% month-over-month in August—the steepest decline since March 2022—well below expectations of a 1% drop, driven largely by a sharp contraction in car manufacturing. In France, President Emmanuel Macron faces mounting pressure to call early elections or step down as outgoing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu embarked on two-day negotiations following his unexpected resignation. On Wednesday, Lecornu indicated that a parliamentary dissolution was unlikely, but the talks reflected a general willingness to approve a budget by year-end. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown shows no signs of abating, raising concerns that delays in key data releases could complicate Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Hang Seng Pares Losses at Finish: The Hang Seng fell 128 points, or 0.5%, to close at 26,829 on Wednesday, down for the third session as broad-based sector weakness hit markets. The tech gauge slipped 0.6%, tracking Wall Street’s retreat after Oracle tumbled on margin concerns. Heavyweight Alibaba was down 1.6%, while Baidu (-3.2%), Meituan (-2.3%), and SMIC (-1.8%) logged steep losses, as U.S. lawmakers reportedly are pushing for wider curbs on chipmaking tool exports to China. Financials and consumer names also dropped, pressured by worries over China’s slowing recovery, exacerbated by recent adverse weather. In contrast, gold miners rallied as bullion prices continued their record highs, with Shandong Gold Mining jumping 7.5% and Zhaojin Mining up 3.7%. Markets trimmed early declines after the World Bank upgraded its 2025 China growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.0%, boosting hopes for more stimulus to support Beijing’s 5% growth target. Meantime, mainland markets are set to reopen Thursday, potentially aiding momentum.

CAC 40 Edges Higher on ArcelorMittal Surge: The Paris CAC 40 edged up to around 7,990 on Wednesday, supported by a more than 3% jump in ArcelorMittal shares after the steelmaker welcomed the European Commission’s proposal to lower shipment quotas for tariff-free steel imports into the EU and raise tariffs on volumes exceeding those limits. In contrast, technology stocks declined amid US calls for bans on sales of chipmaking equipment to China, while automakers remained under pressure following BMW’s earnings forecast downgrade. Broader sentiment stayed cautious as France’s political crisis deepened, with President Emmanuel Macron facing mounting pressure amid repeated cabinet reshuffles and an unstable parliament. The opposition continues to push for early elections, while Macron has tasked recently resigned Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu with presenting a viable action plan and stable governing platform by tonight, though doubts remain over his ability to do so.

FTSE 100 Rises to Fresh Record High: The FTSE 100 rose 0.8% to a new record high on Wednesday, lifted by strength in precious metals miners after gold surged past the historic $4,000 an ounce mark. Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining gained 2.6% and 2.3%, respectively. Among base metal producers, Antofagasta climbed 4%, Anglo American added 3.2%, and Rio Tinto rose 2%. Anglo American also backed Teck Resources’ decision to slow the ramp-up of its Quebrada Blanca copper project in Chile, reaffirming the strategic rationale behind their planned merger. Banking stocks advanced as well, after the Financial Conduct Authority estimated the UK car loan compensation scheme would cost £11 billion, below prior forecasts, fueling expectations that lenders such as Lloyds could release excess provisions. Lloyds shares rose 3.6%, while Standard Chartered gained 2.5%, Barclays 1.1%, and NatWest 2.7%.

TTF Prices Ease after 2-Day Gain: European natural gas futures fell to around €32.6 per megawatt hour on Wednesday, pausing a two-day rally, as ample inventories offset rising demand expectations. Storage levels across the EU remain healthy at 82.9% of capacity, with Italy at 93%, France at 92.5%, and Germany at 76.2%, easing winter supply fears. Still, colder weather forecasts for mid-October, with temperatures in France and Germany about 2°C below seasonal norms, are set to lift heating needs. At the same time, Russia’s largest wave of attacks on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure since the war began raised concerns over potential supply disruptions and higher European exports to Ukraine this winter. Looking ahead, global LNG liquefaction capacity is projected to rise 60% by 2030, half from the US, raising concerns of oversupply. Traders expect demand to lag, pressuring prices lower in both Asia and Europe.

German Industrial Output Falls the Most in Over Three Years: Germany’s industrial production fell by 4.3% month-over-month in August 2025, reversing a 1.3% increase in July and coming in well below market expectations of a 1% decline. This marked the steepest monthly drop in industrial output since March 2022, driven primarily by sharp contractions in the automotive industry (-18.5%), machinery and equipment manufacturing (-6.2%), pharmaceuticals (-10.3%), and computer, electronic, and optical products (-6.1%). Production excluding energy and construction declined by 5.6% compared to July, with capital goods falling 9.6%, consumer goods down 4.7%, and intermediate goods slipping 0.2%. Outside the industrial sector, energy production decreased by 0.5%, while construction output rose by 0.6%. Meanwhile, in the three months from June to August, industrial production was 1.3% lower than in the previous three-month period. On an annual basis, total industrial output declined by 3.9%, reversing a 1.5% increase recorded in the previous year.

Egypt Inflation Rate Lowest Since 2022: The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt eased for the fourth consecutive month to 11.7% in September 2025, down from 12.0% in August, following a four-month high in May driven by rising fuel prices. This marked the lowest inflation rate since March 2022, primarily due to a slowdown in food inflation, which fell to its lowest level since April 2021 (1.4% vs 2.1% in August). Price increases also moderated across several categories, including transport (26.1% vs 26.8%), restaurants and hotels (13.3% vs 13.8%), furnishings (12.9% vs 13.4%), communications (12.0% vs 12.1%), and miscellaneous goods and services (11.9% vs 12.0%). However, prices accelerated for both housing (18.2% vs 16.2%) and clothing (14.9% vs 14.8%). On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.8% in September, accelerating from a 0.4% increase in August, marking the fastest pace in four months.

Palm Oil Rallies to 7-Week High: Malaysian palm oil futures jumped about 2% to over 4,500 per tonne, reaching a seven-week high and extending gains from the prior session. The spike was boosted by stronger soyoil on the Chicago exchange, higher crude oil prices, and a weaker ringgit. Rising exports also bolstered sentiment, with cargo surveyors reporting shipments up 7.3–9.6% from August, while Reuters projected Malaysian stockpiles fell 2.5% to 2.15 million tons last month. Indonesia, the top producer, is pressing ahead with plans to make B50 biodiesel mandatory in 2026 and may introduce 10% bioethanol in gasoline to cut emissions and reduce fuel imports. China, a key buyer, is set to resume market activity soon. Gains were capped by caution ahead of September’s monthly data, alongside weak orders from India, the world’s largest consumer, which fell 15.9% to 833,000 tons in September and may drop further to 600,000 tons this month as festive buying peaks. A prolonged U.S. government shutdown also weighed on markets.

World Bank Lifts China 2025 Growth, Warns of Slower 2026 Pace: The World Bank raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 4.8% from an earlier estimate of 4.0%, but warned that momentum is likely to slow in 2026 due to low consumer and business confidence and weak new export orders. In its biannual East Asia and Pacific economic outlook on Tuesday, the global lender noted, “Growth in China, the region’s largest economy, is projected to decline ... because of an expected slowdown in export growth and a likely reduction in the fiscal stimulus in light of rising public debt, as well as continued structural deceleration.” September data showed China’s factory output and retail sales grew the least in nearly a year, highlighting that the economy remains far from a strong recovery. Analysts expect Beijing may introduce additional stimulus to support its around 5% annual growth target. The World Bank forecast the East Asia and Pacific region to expand 4.4% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point increase, while maintaining a 4.5% growth projection for 2026.

Japan 10-Year Yield Rises Despite Soft Wage Data: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 1.69% on Wednesday, edging back toward 17-year highs even as weaker-than-expected wage data cast doubt on the Bank of Japan’s rate hike plans. Real wages fell 1.4% in August from a year earlier, marking the eighth consecutive monthly decline as inflation continued to outpace wage growth. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that rate hikes would resume if economic and price trends align with forecasts, though he warned of risks stemming from US tariffs. Meanwhile, investors assessed Japan’s political outlook following Sanae Takaichi’s victory to become the next prime minister. A firm supporter of “Abenomics” expansionary policies, her win bolstered expectations for substantial fiscal spending and continued monetary accommodation.

Brent Rises on OPEC+ Output Cap: Brent crude oil futures rose toward $66 per barrel on Wednesday, extending gains from recent sessions as a more modest OPEC+ output hike continued to support prices. The group recently opted for a restrained production increase, the lowest among the options discussed, falling short of market expectations for a more aggressive hike. Meanwhile, Russian crude shipments have remained near a 16-month high over the past four weeks, but signs that Ukrainian drone attacks are taking a toll on Russian refineries have forced exports to be rerouted to alternate terminals. On the bearish side, the EIA projected US production to reach a higher-than-expected record this year, while industry data showed inventories rose by 2.78 million barrels last week, above the anticipated 2.25 million barrels. Traders are now awaiting government data later today for further insights into market supply.